I reckon McLaren have 0.6-0.7s advantage (minimum) over the field in race trim.
Other teams should forget about P1-P2 and aim for P3. I expect to see a fight between Ferrari and Max for P3. And realistically, he should finish P6 behind both Ferraris and Russel, given the tyre deg problems RB20 has in current form.
With new floor and new wings, MCL38 is a proper monster, just like RB19 and just like W11/W12