Red Bull RB21 Speculation Thread

[KimiRai]

Red Bull, which arrived at the end of last season with “breathlessness” due to development that did not give the right performance to the RB20, will have more [wind tunnel] time in the first half of the season. A 10 percent increase over the same period in 2024. In total, the Milton Keynes-based team will be able to take advantage of 96 more wind tunnel “runs” and 600 more CFD elements in the first half of 2025 than in the past championship. The Austrian team is reportedly well ahead of its rivals in terms of assembling the new single-seater.

As learned by our editorial staff, on the sidelines of the “technical departure” of Adrian Newey who decided to leave the multi-champion team, the new technical manager Pierre Waché preferred to speed up the work and not a little. Crash test already passed for the Red Bull RB21, which will take the track as early as January for a filming day. The intent is to arrive at the scheduled tests in Bahrain with more knowledge of the merits and flaws of the technical design, to accelerate the car's development in the six-month period when it will have more time to be able to make evolutionary or corrective changes to the RB21.

https://www.funoanalisitecnica.com/2025 ... -2025.html

[f1316]

Red Bull, which arrived at the end of last season with “breathlessness” due to development that did not give the right performance to the RB20, will have more [wind tunnel] time in the first half of the season. A 10 percent increase over the same period in 2024. In total, the Milton Keynes-based team will be able to take advantage of 96 more wind tunnel “runs” and 600 more CFD elements in the first half of 2025 than in the past championship. The Austrian team is reportedly well ahead of its rivals in terms of assembling the new single-seater.

As learned by our editorial staff, on the sidelines of the “technical departure” of Adrian Newey who decided to leave the multi-champion team, the new technical manager Pierre Waché preferred to speed up the work and not a little. Crash test already passed for the Red Bull RB21, which will take the track as early as January for a filming day. The intent is to arrive at the scheduled tests in Bahrain with more knowledge of the merits and flaws of the technical design, to accelerate the car's development in the six-month period when it will have more time to be able to make evolutionary or corrective changes to the RB21.

https://www.funoanalisitecnica.com/2025 ... -2025.html

As mentioned, this timeline is quite unusual for Red Bull who usually wait until the last moment to build the chassis in order to maximise development time.

This could be a symptom of the no-Newey-era (I suspect he favoured the last minute approach because he felt it had the highest ceiling) but I also think it might be because Red Bull have the most low hanging fruit - I think their car had the most “problems” of the top teams in’24. Think about not being able to use the curbs - that’s a lot of ‘free’ laptime left on the table.

I hope I’m wrong (as a Ferrari fan) but I suspect other teams will have to work harder and change more to compete with Red Bull this year.

[organic]

We're hearing a lot more than usual from everyone involved

[Henk_v]

As posted in several other topics; getting a car in early and finish all running projects opens up the possibility to assess and correct the car in the first months and then switch to the new regs.

No team will bet on late season devs...

[lio007]

From DrObbs on X (who has some connections to the team):

The RB21 to be revealed at the F1 75 event live at the O2 on February 18th. My guess is that this will be the RB20 with a slightly modified livery only with changes to some sponsors like BYBIT, etc…. I would guess we won’t see the actual car until testing..

From the whispers and chatter I’ve heard, the RB21 is more likely to be an evolutionary development from the RB20, but the team has been pushing hard to develop a few revolutionary solutions in key areas of the car. The floor and diffuser (boat and volume) will be a heavy focus for 2025, with targeted intention to bring a wider range of operation over a larger set of corners and track types.

I would also assume that a new flexible front wing will also be a key development this winter to help with overall balance and Tyre performance. I haven’t been able to confirm, but I also believe there will be some attention given to the rear suspension to try and unlock more performance and stability.

I also haven’t been able to doubly confirm this, so right now IT’S JUST A RUMOR, but the RB21 crash test may have been successfully passed…. So take that with a grain of salt..

[Henk_v]

Is this year the first year with a full carry over of the rules as far as they impact the tub? For sure 22->23 we had the changes following Zhou's accident and a floor raise.. For 23->24 we had only the driver cooling addition right?

[stewie325]

Red Bull, which arrived at the end of last season with “breathlessness” due to development that did not give the right performance to the RB20, will have more [wind tunnel] time in the first half of the season. A 10 percent increase over the same period in 2024. In total, the Milton Keynes-based team will be able to take advantage of 96 more wind tunnel “runs” and 600 more CFD elements in the first half of 2025 than in the past championship. The Austrian team is reportedly well ahead of its rivals in terms of assembling the new single-seater.

As learned by our editorial staff, on the sidelines of the “technical departure” of Adrian Newey who decided to leave the multi-champion team, the new technical manager Pierre Waché preferred to speed up the work and not a little. Crash test already passed for the Red Bull RB21, which will take the track as early as January for a filming day. The intent is to arrive at the scheduled tests in Bahrain with more knowledge of the merits and flaws of the technical design, to accelerate the car's development in the six-month period when it will have more time to be able to make evolutionary or corrective changes to the RB21.

https://www.funoanalisitecnica.com/2025 ... -2025.html

As mentioned, this timeline is quite unusual for Red Bull who usually wait until the last moment to build the chassis in order to maximise development time.

This could be a symptom of the no-Newey-era (I suspect he favoured the last minute approach because he felt it had the highest ceiling) but I also think it might be because Red Bull have the most low hanging fruit - I think their car had the most “problems” of the top teams in’24. Think about not being able to use the curbs - that’s a lot of ‘free’ laptime left on the table.

I hope I’m wrong (as a Ferrari fan) but I suspect other teams will have to work harder and change more to compete with Red Bull this year.

The cut-off for 2026 devevelopment will be quite soon this year, so it makes sense for all teams to move forward their '25 car development as early as possible.

I wouldn't be surprised if some teams don't bring any upgrades after Imola, unless they get drawn into an unexpected WDC battle.