Ferrari Project 677 Speculation Thread

[aleks_ader]

-technically risky
-financially risky

For what, for long shot at potential WCC? McLaren is technically superior. Would make sense too investigate what Rb in McLaren make it tick and use season as just correlation tool. Sadly Ferrari does not have technical strong structure too luck in with 2026 and 2025. McLaren technical lead their way and showed they have superiority.

[Emag]

-technically risky
-financially risky

For what, for long shot at potential WCC? McLaren is technically superior. Would make sense too investigate what Rb in McLaren make it tick and use season as just correlation tool. Sadly Ferrari does not have technical strong structure too luck in with 2026 and 2025. McLaren technical lead their way and showed they have superiority.

Ferrari showed great understanding towards the end of the season and they restored their level of competitiveness relative to McLaren (to a certain degree) after they fixed their issues. There are clear issues with the 2024 car that need to be targeted and they didn't show signs of running out of development ideas.

I doubt Ferrari treats 2026 as a throwaway year and the comments coming from them certainly don't hint towards such a thing either. Your comments regarding McLaren being technically superior are somewhat missplaced in my opinion. The only new hire in McLaren different from last year is Rob Marshall. The rest of the people are the same ones who developed the 2022 and launch spec 2023 cars, just under different leadership.

McLaren's facilities are much newer, true, but it's not like Ferrari is running with some obsolete ancient tech.

It's all to play for next year. They should not hold back while having (arguably) the best lineup in the grid and the top teams ending the previous season so close in performance. There is more than just a realistic chance that Ferrari can snatch both titles in 2025 if they nail this upcoming car. Certainly more chance than the dice roll that 2026 could be with the new regs.

[f1316]

-technically risky
-financially risky

For what, for long shot at potential WCC? McLaren is technically superior. Would make sense too investigate what Rb in McLaren make it tick and use season as just correlation tool. Sadly Ferrari does not have technical strong structure too luck in with 2026 and 2025. McLaren technical lead their way and showed they have superiority.

Ferrari showed great understanding towards the end of the season and they restored their level of competitiveness relative to McLaren (to a certain degree) after they fixed their issues. There are clear issues with the 2024 car that need to be targeted and they didn't show signs of running out of development ideas.

I doubt Ferrari treats 2026 as a throwaway year and the comments coming from them certainly don't hint towards such a thing either. Your comments regarding McLaren being technically superior are somewhat missplaced in my opinion. The only new hire in McLaren different from last year is Rob Marshall. The rest of the people are the same ones who developed the 2022 and launch spec 2023 cars, just under different leadership.

McLaren's facilities are much newer, true, but it's not like Ferrari is running with some obsolete ancient tech.

It's all to play for next year. They should not hold back while having (arguably) the best lineup in the grid and the top teams ending the previous season so close in performance. There is more than just a realistic chance that Ferrari can snatch both titles in 2025 if they nail this upcoming car. Certainly more chance than the dice roll that 2026 could be with the new regs.

Don’t forget that Ferrari recently purchased the most state of the art simulator and updated their rolling road test rig last year (seemingly to positive results). Ferrari aren’t lacking in facilities.

[GrizzleBoy]

-technically risky
-financially risky

For what, for long shot at potential WCC? McLaren is technically superior. Would make sense too investigate what Rb in McLaren make it tick and use season as just correlation tool. Sadly Ferrari does not have technical strong structure too luck in with 2026 and 2025. McLaren technical lead their way and showed they have superiority.

Ferrari showed great understanding towards the end of the season and they restored their level of competitiveness relative to McLaren (to a certain degree) after they fixed their issues. There are clear issues with the 2024 car that need to be targeted and they didn't show signs of running out of development ideas.

I doubt Ferrari treats 2026 as a throwaway year and the comments coming from them certainly don't hint towards such a thing either. Your comments regarding McLaren being technically superior are somewhat missplaced in my opinion. The only new hire in McLaren different from last year is Rob Marshall. The rest of the people are the same ones who developed the 2022 and launch spec 2023 cars, just under different leadership.

McLaren's facilities are much newer, true, but it's not like Ferrari is running with some obsolete ancient tech.

It's all to play for next year. They should not hold back while having (arguably) the best lineup in the grid and the top teams ending the previous season so close in performance. There is more than just a realistic chance that Ferrari can snatch both titles in 2025 if they nail this upcoming car. Certainly more chance than the dice roll that 2026 could be with the new regs.

Don’t forget that Ferrari recently purchased the most state of the art simulator and updated their rolling road test rig last year (seemingly to positive results). Ferrari aren’t lacking in facilities.

Sounds good for 2026, then.

Hopefully they're actually 100% upto speed with correlation from new tools to track by at least the time the new regs start.

[Macklaren]

-technically risky
-financially risky

For what, for long shot at potential WCC? McLaren is technically superior. Would make sense too investigate what Rb in McLaren make it tick and use season as just correlation tool. Sadly Ferrari does not have technical strong structure too luck in with 2026 and 2025. McLaren technical lead their way and showed they have superiority.

Ferrari showed great understanding towards the end of the season and they restored their level of competitiveness relative to McLaren (to a certain degree) after they fixed their issues. There are clear issues with the 2024 car that need to be targeted and they didn't show signs of running out of development ideas.

I doubt Ferrari treats 2026 as a throwaway year and the comments coming from them certainly don't hint towards such a thing either. Your comments regarding McLaren being technically superior are somewhat missplaced in my opinion. The only new hire in McLaren different from last year is Rob Marshall. The rest of the people are the same ones who developed the 2022 and launch spec 2023 cars, just under different leadership.

McLaren's facilities are much newer, true, but it's not like Ferrari is running with some obsolete ancient tech.

It's all to play for next year. They should not hold back while having (arguably) the best lineup in the grid and the top teams ending the previous season so close in performance. There is more than just a realistic chance that Ferrari can snatch both titles in 2025 if they nail this upcoming car. Certainly more chance than the dice roll that 2026 could be with the new regs.

I've been a die hard McLaren fan for 35 years and even I think its dumb to claim that McLaren is somehow inherently superior to Ferrari, technically. Ferrari's biggest problem in the last 15 years has been internal politics and lack of role clarity but Fred has now addressed that. Hopefully we get a Ferrari vs. McLaren head to head battle in the coming years

[bananapeel23]

-technically risky
-financially risky

For what, for long shot at potential WCC? McLaren is technically superior. Would make sense too investigate what Rb in McLaren make it tick and use season as just correlation tool. Sadly Ferrari does not have technical strong structure too luck in with 2026 and 2025. McLaren technical lead their way and showed they have superiority.

How exactly is it a longshot?

Ferrari was 14 points away from winning the WCC with a worse driver lineup than their current one and a car that turned into a tractor for a stretch of 4 races. If they remain as competitive as they were after the summer break in 2024 they would easily be the favourites for both championships.

They are also technically very strong. They made some absolutely decisive and amazing decisions when they completely (and successfully) switched floor concept mid-season. I'd argue McLaren is almost weaker technically. They lack so much confidence in their concept that they withheld a finished floor upgrade for several race weekends because they didn't trust their data. That is not a sign of a "strong technical structure".

Ferrari was "technically weak" because they were being held back by a wind tunnel that wasn't correlating until they brought a new rolling floor for it. After that every single upgrade delivered. Operationally they are the best they have been in over a decade, while McLaren has been struggling with poor strategy, hot-headed drivers and stupid blunders.

[Macklaren]

They are also technically very strong. They made some absolutely decisive and amazing decisions when they completely (and successfully) switched floor concept mid-season. I'd argue McLaren is almost weaker technically. They lack so much confidence in their concept that they withheld a finished floor upgrade for several race weekends because they didn't trust their data. That is not a sign of a "strong technical structure".

just FYI the scuttle over in the McLaren thread is that they found something big and chose to save it for 2025 since they were in good shape for the WCC anyway with the current car. nothing about mclaren's upgrades in the last 1.5 seasons has indicated lack of confidence

[sucof]

-technically risky
-financially risky

For what, for long shot at potential WCC? McLaren is technically superior. Would make sense too investigate what Rb in McLaren make it tick and use season as just correlation tool. Sadly Ferrari does not have technical strong structure too luck in with 2026 and 2025. McLaren technical lead their way and showed they have superiority.

Glad to see so many people dissecting this comment.

Do you realise, that the "technically superior" Mclaren is like 0.1% faster than the "crappy" Ferrari?
A reason why I so much dislike commentators, or anyone trashing slower teams. They can build cars that are within 1-2% of overall performance. I think this is amazing.

Regarding the rumours, there is zero risk in designing a new car for 2025, rather, this is the best they could do:
- teams can not develop 2026 cars till 2025. And as you can see, they are mostly ready with this years car, especially in the design. They are mostly manufacturing from now on. So close to zero time or money lost creating a brand new car for 2025.
- more importantly, to win, you have to have the best people. People will be the best if they learn, and learn by doing.
If they stop designing a new car for this year, they will loose a LOT of learning and experience. This is a very good practice, to create a whole new car, as this is their job for 2026.
- to win, besides the best people, you need to have the best simulation, in software and hardware. The closer they are to reality, the faster car you can build. The better you understand your tools, the faster your car will be. So designing and building new cars, and testing them in real life, is the best thing you can do to improve for 2026.
- in my opinion, 2026 regs are not very dissimilar to the current ones. So what I would do is to go all in with developments that are somewhat relevant to 2026. Like, suspension, or understanding aero in general, and tires. So makes sense to kinda already do work for the car next year.

[DoctorRadio]

I think aleks_ader either doesn’t want to jinx it or he lives in the past.

[bananapeel23]

Not bringing the floor almost cost McLaren the WCC. It was absolutely idiotic and a massive indication of a lack of confidence. If the floor is ready and built and you spend several race weekends losing points to Ferrari while debating whether or not to risk bringing it to the track (since you aren't sure it will work as intended) you certainly aren't showing your confidence.

Confidence is bringing an experimental floor and running it on a sprint weekend with the only prior testing being an FP1 session on a track that is different in every way.

[Seanspeed]

Everybody thought Mercedes had it in the bag for 2021.

Everybody thought Red Bull had it in the bag for 2024.

[Emag]

Not bringing the floor almost cost McLaren the WCC. It was absolutely idiotic and a massive indication of a lack of confidence. If the floor is ready and built and you spend several race weekends losing points to Ferrari while debating whether or not to risk bringing it to the track (since you aren't sure it will work as intended) you certainly aren't showing your confidence.

Confidence is bringing an experimental floor and running it on a sprint weekend with the only prior testing being an FP1 session on a track that is different in every way.

WCC got close because Oscar decided to play bowling after being taken out by Max on lap 1 at Abu Dhabi and because Norris somehow forgot he has to slow down on yellows at Qatar.

Collectively, that’s a 30+ point swing in favour of McLaren which were lost due to dumb incidents in the last 2 races alone.

I don’t want to get into what ifs anyway because this season is full of them, for both teams. It’s enough to say that the what ifs of McLaren , make Lando a wdc and the team a wcc with a race or two to spare. Ferrari’s what ifs potentially give Leclerc P2 in the wdc and may narrowly give them the wcc. The midseason slump hurt them severely.

What I do want to say though, is that you’re comparing different situations regarding the upgrades. Ferrari messed up the in-season development last year. It’s always easier to make a leap when you’re behind. The problems that need to be fixed are obvious.

Not to mention the fact that Ferrari had nothing to lose by the end of the season. RedBull was never going to catch them again running a 1-driver team. They had no risk in trying out whatever “experimental” development was ready in the factory.

McLaren on the other hand found something with the Miami package and tried to understand it. Literally all the competitors around them were stumbling about with upgrade issues. RBR fell off, Ferrari fell off and Mercedes re-lost themselves again.

When you’re in a position where you understand your current package enough to win races while competitors are hurting themselves with upgrades, it’s not so crazy to hold up for a moment before introducing upgrades that can destabilise you too just like your rivals. After all, McLaren somehow stumbled into a title fight this year after being irrelevant for ages. Them being cautious is to be expected.

However I do think they (McLaren) hit a bit of a bottleneck with their concept during development last year and that’s maybe the real reason on why they held back instead of these sugar coated statements that came out from the team.

If you judge it by how 2024 ended, Ferrari seemed to have more potential for development. The fact that they (Ferrari) have a somewhat unique floor concept amongst the top teams is also cause for optimism. It’s to be expected of Ferrari though, they usually find their own way to make things work.

If the MCL39 doesn’t come out with some noticeable changes, based on how 2024 transpired at the end, I would put Ferrari as favourites just because they have more obvious areas of improvement.

The italian media are stalkers when it comes to Ferrari though so perhaps we only say this because we know more about Ferrari than other teams.

[bananapeel23]

When you’re in a position where you understand your current package enough to win races while competitors are hurting themselves with upgrades, it’s not so crazy to hold up for a moment before introducing upgrades that can destabilise you too just like your rivals. After all, McLaren somehow stumbled into a title fight this year after being irrelevant for ages. Them being cautious is to be expected.

That is the lack of confidence I was talking about explained in a better way than I could ever hope to. If they think there is a risk of them falling into a development trap that would destabilize their car, they clearly aren't confident in their data being reliable.

Yes, they had the luxury of being able to rest on their laurels (in hindsight it barely worked out), but if they were confident that their data was correct and that the floor would work as intended, why wouldn't they just put it on the car as soon as it was ready?

As it relates to Ferrari having more development potential. I tend to agree. The floor is very primitive and fundamentally new, which indicates a lot of development potential. You would imagine that it will only get better with chassis and suspension developed around said concept, rather than the floor concept being developed around the existing car.

[Emag]

When you’re in a position where you understand your current package enough to win races while competitors are hurting themselves with upgrades, it’s not so crazy to hold up for a moment before introducing upgrades that can destabilise you too just like your rivals. After all, McLaren somehow stumbled into a title fight this year after being irrelevant for ages. Them being cautious is to be expected.

That is the lack of confidence I was talking about explained in a better way than I could ever hope to. If they think there is a risk of them falling into a development trap that would destabilize their car, they clearly aren't confident in their data being reliable.

Yes, they had the luxury of being able to rest on their laurels (in hindsight it barely worked out), but if they were confident that their data was correct and that the floor would work as intended, why wouldn't they just put it on the car as soon as it was ready?

I think I already answered this question with what I think was happening with them towards the end of the previous season, but anyway, enough McLaren-talk on a Ferrari car thread.

[Partymood]

Not bringing the floor almost cost McLaren the WCC. It was absolutely idiotic and a massive indication of a lack of confidence. If the floor is ready and built and you spend several race weekends losing points to Ferrari while debating whether or not to risk bringing it to the track (since you aren't sure it will work as intended) you certainly aren't showing your confidence.

Confidence is bringing an experimental floor and running it on a sprint weekend with the only prior testing being an FP1 session on a track that is different in every way.

WCC got close because Oscar decided to play bowling after being taken out by Max on lap 1 at Abu Dhabi and because Norris somehow forgot he has to slow down on yellows at Qatar.

Collectively, that’s a 30+ point swing in favour of McLaren which were lost due to dumb incidents in the last 2 races alone.

I don’t want to get into what ifs anyway because this season is full of them, for both teams. It’s enough to say that the what ifs of McLaren , make Lando a wdc and the team a wcc with a race or two to spare. Ferrari’s what ifs potentially give Leclerc P2 in the wdc and may narrowly give them the wcc. The midseason slump hurt them severely.

What I do want to say though, is that you’re comparing different situations regarding the upgrades. Ferrari messed up the in-season development last year. It’s always easier to make a leap when you’re behind. The problems that need to be fixed are obvious.

Not to mention the fact that Ferrari had nothing to lose by the end of the season. RedBull was never going to catch them again running a 1-driver team. They had no risk in trying out whatever “experimental” development was ready in the factory.

McLaren on the other hand found something with the Miami package and tried to understand it. Literally all the competitors around them were stumbling about with upgrade issues. RBR fell off, Ferrari fell off and Mercedes re-lost themselves again.

When you’re in a position where you understand your current package enough to win races while competitors are hurting themselves with upgrades, it’s not so crazy to hold up for a moment before introducing upgrades that can destabilise you too just like your rivals. After all, McLaren somehow stumbled into a title fight this year after being irrelevant for ages. Them being cautious is to be expected.

However I do think they (McLaren) hit a bit of a bottleneck with their concept during development last year and that’s maybe the real reason on why they held back instead of these sugar coated statements that came out from the team.

If you judge it by how 2024 ended, Ferrari seemed to have more potential for development. The fact that they (Ferrari) have a somewhat unique floor concept amongst the top teams is also cause for optimism. It’s to be expected of Ferrari though, they usually find their own way to make things work.

If the MCL39 doesn’t come out with some noticeable changes, based on how 2024 transpired at the end, I would put Ferrari as favourites just because they have more obvious areas of improvement.

The italian media are stalkers when it comes to Ferrari though so perhaps we only say this because we know more about Ferrari than other teams.

somehow you forgot the mini DRS in your equation...meh