The four top teams are still the four top teams ahead of a midfield of AM, Alpine and Williams, while Haas and "Sauber" bring up the rear. You can't say more than that, especially because Ferrari can make bigger leaps than Red Bull, Mercedes and McLaren in terms of the important set-up. While the latter three teams know the optimum set-ups with their relatively well-known suspensions very well, Ferrari is still far from having found an optimum set-up for the new suspension and is at the beginning of the learning process in this respect. There is certainly more potential for improvement in set-up changes at Ferrari than at Red Bull, McLaren and Mercedes, because everything is new with them - pull rod instead of push rod, new springs, new dampers, a completely new suspension concept while the others continue to use the tried and tested. And especially in race trim and tire wear, the set-up makes a world of difference. So it seems Ferrari will (even looks like they already are) ultimately be ahead of Mercedes, but ahead of McLaren and Red Bull? Impossible to say at the moment as Red Bull is a relative unknown so far, they haven't shown much, but they will probably no longer be superior, i think they are even behind Ferrari and McLaren. McLaren definetely looks strong, but if you consider all the details, Ferrari don't really look much worse
(especially if you go by what you hear from the paddock, where Ferrari is seen as "menacing" by McLaren people), because you have to consider the fact that there are disadvantages in terms of set-up with a completely new front-suspension.
So my "guess", untill now, is:
1. McLaren
2. Ferrari
3. Red Bull
4. Mercedes
5. Aston Martin
6. Alpine
7. Williams
8. RBR
9. Haas
10. Stake F1
I'm almost inclined to move Aston Martin back two places, but not without waiting for the third day... Mercedes circles in Germany are concerned about the pace of the new car, while Ferrari seems to be cautiously confident.
Anyway - the race simulations (adjusted for different tire compounds and track development) from yesterday :
