2025 McLaren F1 Team

[MrGapes]

Makes me want to compare the testing race run speed traces vs the race last year though.

In fact, that's the only thing that has some semblance of 'readable data' - only the long runs matter. Quali sims I don't trust even on FP runs on a race weekend. Only the long runs matter. The only place where quali sims can be considered 'readable data' are in Monaco and Singapore FPs.

McLaren was MASSIVELY hiding pace in testing

Maybe. A comparison of the race v testing trace was interesting, but I need to.look at the gaps to cars in front on my analysis to see if the overall idea stands.

What i can say is that in testing, we can brake much later on heavy and medium fuel loads. The nose looks more than able to handle the heavier car.

Id noticed over the past few years that we seemed to brake earlier than others, though it got better over time. I initially debated with Lionsheart if we were derating, but he got some footage and we realised the car needed to scrub speed before the corner more than others to be able to turn in. Particularly on high fuel.

It can't be overstated what a difference this will make if true.

Based on this, I am expecting the car not to gain relative pace as the race goes on like in the last few years, but to be faster from the start. It'll certainly help with the turn 1/lap 1 battles. That in itself could be worth a hatful of points.

They've done something special to that front end, I'm sure. And it's very visible in slow corners, so it's mechanical, at least in part.

THIS + following into longer corners, keeping close till drs is activated on the first laps… following in general.

[mwillems]

Yeah it could well be. 1 week to go.

[CjC]

Oh my days, Mclaren are gonna struggle to get into Q3

https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/whos ... -analysis/

To be fair, Gary’s conclusion is along the line of what I’m thinking.

The race pace looked good but rear instability looked problematic on the ‘performance runs’ if there was any from McLaren in testing. If the rear instability continues it’ll just sap driver confidence in quali- the opposite to last season where out of the top 4 teams the McLaren drivers looked to have the most confidence in the car and could wring its neck- from my arm chairs perspective any way.

I think at best, we’ll only see one McLaren on the front row and I’ll be surprised if it’s pole.

[Emag]

I am expecting a Ferrari pole but a better McLaren on race pace for Melbourne.

[K1Plus]

I am expecting a Ferrari pole but a better McLaren on race pace for Melbourne.

By that you mean NOR LEC HAM podium. I'd take it TBH

[CjC]

I am expecting a Ferrari pole but a better McLaren on race pace for Melbourne.

I know you study the data, have you seen anything to indicate the Ferrari is quicker over one lap?

All I’m basing my ‘prediction’ on is from the footage of the McLaren and the media naming McLaren as the quickest- some do caveat it with ‘on race pace’- some don’t.
I’m also basing it on what the others are saying- not so much Ferrari but what Mercedes’ Bradley Lord and George Russell said as well as Verstappen.

[CjC]

Verstappens comments which I’m referring to:

Asked how many teams could compete for world titles in 2025, Verstappen designated McLaren: “At the moment only one, and that team is orange! That's a very nice colour of course, but from our side, we still have work to do. Other teams want to see some improvements as well, I think, so at the moment one team is clearly in front.

“If you look at the lap times, then I think McLaren is the favourite. On our side, not everything went completely smoothly, but on the other hand we have some ideas on how to improve.”

Full article:
https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/verst ... /10701209/

[Emag]

I am expecting a Ferrari pole but a better McLaren on race pace for Melbourne.

I know you study the data, have you seen anything to indicate the Ferrari is quicker over one lap?

All I’m basing my ‘prediction’ on is from the footage of the McLaren and the media naming McLaren as the quickest- some do caveat it with ‘on race pace’- some don’t.
I’m also basing it on what the others are saying- not so much Ferrari but what Mercedes’ Bradley Lord and George Russell said as well as Verstappen.

It's a bit hard to read McLaren's one lap pace from testing so it's more of a guess than anything else. Ferrari looked really good, especially with Lewis (day 2 I think) on their performance runs. Other than that, Ferrari drivers are both really good qualifiers. Lewis especially, has some really impressive laps around Melbourne, although I digress, those were set when the track had a slightly different configuration.

The way I see it, if McLaren ends up having both a qualifying and racepace advantage in Australia, then that doesn't bode well for the rest of the teams. Racepace, I could see it happening because they were quite impressive on the longruns in Bahrain, but I am keeping my reservations for qualifying until we see the car being thrown around on a proper qualifying, low-fuel lap.

[geogate]

i think to reduce expectations is fair - Mclaren have pace but difficult for the drivers to extract in low fuel - but it is there, and im sure they will be concentrating on that with sim set up. The circuit and conditions for the test were also a worse case by the looks of it

[Ground Effect]

I'd like to think McLaren went out of their way to hide their one lap pace. I'm expecting a papaya front row.

[mwillems]

It's hard to read anyones one lap pace. The only thing I notice in the telemetry is that on our fastest lap (Meds) wed brake earlier than the Ferrari, but we know that the nose is behaving very well so this may well suggest a heavier fuel load on the Mclaren. We also know that the rear struggled more on the Friday due to the conditions.

On the day we did a fast run, it was cooler than when Lec and Ham set their fast times. So the conditions favoured the folks who did the qualy lap on the Thursday. I think there's half a second between the fastest laps of Mclaren and Ferrari and much of this can be explained away.

I agree though that Ferrari seem to have shown a little more in Q pace than Race. But I think it is impossible to give a proper understanding of the Qualy pace. Not least because the relative performance can swing a lot between compounds. Our fast lap was on a C3, qualy laps will be set on C5 in Aus. We all know how sensitive these cars can be to the compound. Even on a Qualy lap, it helps to have a car that looks after its tyres.

Also, Australia has some rear limited corners but it also has plenty of use from the front vs Bahrain being predominantly rear limited, particularly on the colder Friday. Our one lap pace vs Bahrain will likely improve in Australia. If the nose is as good as it looks, expect the Mclaren to be thundering around some of those corners.

Like I said before, we got a decent qualy time in Bahrain on a track and configuration that will likely see the car not perform as well as it would on many other tracks.

I'm quietly optimistic that pole will be at least tight and that on race pace we might have an advantage.

As always, the driver will be one of the biggest differentiators. No excuses now, they both need to perform.

[venkyhere]

It's hard to read anyones one lap pace. The only thing I notice in the telemetry is that on our fastest lap (Meds) wed brake earlier than the Ferrari, but we know that the nose is behaving very well so this may well suggest a heavier fuel load on the Mclaren. We also know that the rear struggled more on the Friday due to the conditions.

Like I said before, we got a decent qualy time in Bahrain on a track and configuration that will likely see the car not perform as well as it would on many other tracks.

I'm quietly optimistic that pole will be at least tight and that on race pace we might have an advantage.

As always, the driver will be one of the biggest differentiators. No excuses now, they both need to perform.

Something interesting I found, thanks to @FdataAnalysis, is the 'time spent on full throttle' for the quickest lap (in the most representative conditions for the track during Q/R) during the final testing session.



From timing data, Mclaren, Mercedes, Ferrari and Redbull are all slower by 0.3-0.4s w.r.t their quali timings from last year.
However, if we look at their throttle usage in the above chart, we can see the classic two flavours of sandbagging :
Mercedes & Redbull going for very low engine modes but without too much fuel load.
McLaren going for decent fuel load, but without too low engine modes.
Ferrari going for decent fuel load AND low engine mode.
So the conclusion that can be drawn from the timing chart of day3 plus the throttle usage chart is - NO CONCLUSION.
One lap pace is impossible to judge. Long run pace is the only thing (that too with a pinch of salt) that is useful.

[Emag]

The problem I have with the throttle usage metrics is the fact that they’re completely irrelevant if you don’t know how much the driver was pushing. Was he trying to go close to the limit, or was he taking it easy and not rushing to go on throttle after each corner?

[venkyhere]

The problem I have with the throttle usage metrics is the fact that they’re completely irrelevant if you don’t know how much the driver was pushing. Was he trying to go close to the limit, or was he taking it easy and not rushing to go on throttle after each corner?

what is the purpose of running a 'quali-sim' with the driver being 'gentle-on-the-throttle' ? What are they testing then, what purpose would such a lap serve, of what use will that data be ?

[Emag]

Did any of the teams run a proper ‘quali-sim’ though? We dont know.

In any case, you would be surprised how similarly laps that are within tenths of the limit are driven / feel for the driver. The limitations of the car become apparent without needing to push to the absolute limit. It’s therefore actually easier for the driver and less risky to not push 100% when it comes to gathering data.