2025 McLaren F1 Team

[mwillems]

Public opinion seems to have shifted in favour of Piastri being the better driver at McLaren. Do you guys agree with this?

I think these claims are utter BS.

My source for that claim is betting odds (which have Piastri at 47% vs Norris at 42%) but I didn’t want to specify that over fears of getting slapped with a ban for advertising gambling or something, even if I was just using it as a guage of sentiment.

Yeah the odds being offered do favour Oscar. But remember that the odds change based on where the bookies have more money to lose. So asides from underlying sporting analysis, it's as much the armchair experts with the bets that suggest Oscar has the advantage.

It's a fair question that you ask but it's way to early to tell. The table is a fair reflection and they are neck and neck. But as has been pointed out, it's way to early to back a horse. Lets see how it goes.

[mwillems]

Public opinion seems to have shifted in favour of Piastri being the better driver at McLaren. Do you guys agree with this?

I'm currently on the fence, but I feel like Oscar is looking really solid now. He is clearly a lot closer to Norris than he used to be in quali, and is even leading the head to head so far this season. Additionally Piastri seems to be very close to Norris when he gets outqualified, while Norris seemingly ends up out of position more often.

I feel like Norris is still the faster driver and that his peaks are higher, but Piastri seems to be much more consistent and much less prone to making unforced errors. Personally I'm very 50/50 on who gets the title, assuming a McLaren driver wins it.

Racecraft: Oscar, it was the case last year too.

Speed: Car dependent. I think that Mclaren's new suspension is the reason that Lando doesn't feel comfortable in the car. He can't brake the car, always locking up when he tries to extract that last 1% in Q3. The aggressive geometry of that suspension probably ruins the braking feel on the limit. This is something that Red Bull struggled with in 2022-2024 which was masked by the massive downforce that the car generated (like MCL-39 currently). Piastri's normal driving style is smoother (like Verstappen) which is why he is more successful with the new car.

The problems for Norris won't go away unless he successfully adapts his driving style. Mclaren won't be able to change their suspension much this season and it's not clear that they would choose to since the simulations say that this makes the whole package fast, and Oscar can drive it.

Even if he were to adapt his driving, Lando's racecraft still has too many holes even when the car actually suited him so I'd bet on Oscar anyway.

I guess there's two parts to racecraft in these individuals. The raw opportunistic ability to get past someone, which I'd agree Oscar takes. But lando has a very nice management of his attacks, much more considered, which I thought gave him the advantage last year in that metric.

Landos racecraft seemed to come undone not through talent but by rash heat of the moment decision making against top guys like Hamilton and Verstappen. And this is where Oscar wins a point against Lando.

Both are extremely talented and I think Lando has the edge on pure pace. But Oscar feels a natural at the front and under pressure and this can easily outweigh a small pace difference.

[AR3-GP]

Landos racecraft seemed to come undone not through talent but by rash heat of the moment decision making against top guys like Hamilton and Verstappen. And this is where Oscar wins a point against Lando.

I don't know if there's a distinction. That is the moment where a driver defines himself, against the other top guys, not easy moves under no pressure against midfield cars.

It's not just Hamilton and Verstappen where Norris falls short. George Russell also seems to trouble Lando. Check the first lap of the China sprint. The china GP, the last lap in Bahrain, Brazil '24. Russell has Lando's number.

I would compare that to Oscar's move on Hamilton on the last lap in Australia, the one he put on Lando in Monza last year, or on Leclerc in Baku. I don't see any area of race craft where I think Lando is better.

Lando strikes me as someone who can be fast under specific conditions, but there's a long way between being quick, and winning a championship.

[rayden]

Odds checker is showing Piastri as the favorite for the WDC now on all major global betting sites. This includes the big British ones too - paddy power, william hill, skybet etc

[BMMR61]

I'm putting the case that the expected race pace and tyre management of the McLaren WAS dominant here. Allied to that, Lando's mindset and racecaraft cost him massively and he didn't show McLaren's real pace in dirty air. Here goes;

Oscar's lead at the time of the safety car was 8 seconds.
Russell gained 2+ seconds on the undercut at the first stop.
When the race was restarted from SC Oscar had lost 10+ seconds.
His race victory was 15+ seconds, therefore equivalent to 25 seconds in a race not neutralised.
His pace at the end showed he had far more tyre life than his competitors, sure that's a benefit of being out front in clan air.

How did it appear that Oscar and McLaren didn't have more than 0.35 seconds per lap over Russell? Oscar was needing to defend his tyres, not his lead. First stint, 14 laps on softs - nobody knew how they would handle the heat so caution in extending a lead beyond the undercut was the priority. Oscar's first stint was only curtailed because of the Russell undercut threat.

Second stint on mediums wasn't as conservative as the first because of the confidence and knowledge in the mediums. 18 laps on mediums Oscar extended his lead from 2 seconds to 8.5 seconds running much of the time when not caught in traffic, nearly 0.5 faster than George.

Final stint and with Russell on softs and 20 racing laps left there was no way Oscar could lose. With 5 laps to go he was dipping into the 1.35s while everyone else was in the 1.37s and 1.38s - such was his advantage on worn tyres and low tanks. The only reason Oscar maintained this pace was to rub in the message while taking no risks at all. Masterclass.

Correct me where you disagree.

How did Landos mindset cost him anything? How can you make a comment on his mindset without knowing it, unless you are a psychologist maybe.

This mindset stuff is just being making stuff up.

Ben, respectfully, I've seen you post on this "how can you say this about Lando's mindset" theme. I'm not attacking simply stating what many of us know and can see. I have been competitive in motorsports and I don't need to puff myself up to say how the psychology is what it is.

It's not rocket science (or brain surgery), it's known sports psychology and years plus observing the trends. Any sport has a big psychological component. Motorsports tends to be even greater, as physical attributes, while important, don't dictate whether a person is going to be capable of a high level of competitiveness.

We observe Lando naively blundering into traps of media interaction, looking flustered, talking DOWN on himself. One of the most unquestioned parts of strong psychology is a POSITIVE mindset. Lando reveals his mindset isn't positive "I'm a glass half empty kind of guy, that's who I am". He said it! Well if you're going to rest on "that's who I am" then you aren't ready to take the next step. Quite extraordinary really that 6.25 years into F1, not to mention all the other years of serious racing, and Lando appears to be relying almost entirely on his natural talent. Which he has plenty of, among the very best!

Nico Rosberg was the most psycho-trained F1 champion I can recall, he knew he was in a war with his teammate Hamilton and trained his every thought to victory. Nico has seen and talked about Lando's battles with himself and offered to help him. His teammate was undoubtedly more naturally gifted than he was. Unsurprisingly, Lando the self sufficient young man "that's who I am" believes he can do it himself. Maybe he can, I wouldn't bet on it. Pick up the phone, we WANT you to succeed. All this is not to hate on the guy, I feel awful for him. He has been with McLaren since 2019, the mainstay since 2021 and now he is likely feeling somewhat usurped by this young teammate who is starting to, dare I offer an opinion, get under his skin.

[BMMR61]

I liked a recent post by A3-GP which gave the opinion that the aggressive anti dive front geometry adopted in the MCL39 is what is making the car difficult with Lando's style.
I immediately wondered why I hadn't seen this, Lando's method of braking into a corner and getting the car into a good "poise" would possibly be negated by the characteristics generated by this level of anti-dive. The anti-dive could be affecting braking feel into corners where Lando excels.

[SoulPancake13]

I liked a recent post by A3-GP which gave the opinion that the aggressive anti dive front geometry adopted in the MCL39 is what is making the car difficult with Lando's style.
I immediately wondered why I hadn't seen this, Lando's method of braking into a corner and getting the car into a good "poise" would possibly be negated by the characteristics generated by this level of anti-dive. The anti-dive could be affecting braking feel into corners where Lando excels.

To a lesser extent, Leclerc and Sainz also had this issue initially with the SF24 due to the anti dive. I'm sure Norris will figure a way around it.

[_cerber1]

I liked a recent post by A3-GP which gave the opinion that the aggressive anti dive front geometry adopted in the MCL39 is what is making the car difficult with Lando's style.

In my opinion, it is obvious. In Melbourne and Suzuka, Lando was faster than Oscar because there were few hard braking zones. In Shanghai and Bahrain, Oscar was faster because there were more of them. In theory, Lando should be good in Jeddah because there is very little load on the brakes.

[mwillems]

I liked a recent post by A3-GP which gave the opinion that the aggressive anti dive front geometry adopted in the MCL39 is what is making the car difficult with Lando's style.
I immediately wondered why I hadn't seen this, Lando's method of braking into a corner and getting the car into a good "poise" would possibly be negated by the characteristics generated by this level of anti-dive. The anti-dive could be affecting braking feel into corners where Lando excels.

This is certainly the issue and was being posted about as far back as China.

Hence why in China Lando struggled with turns 2 and 3.

I posted about an uneven or unpredictable braking / grip gradient in corners that Lando can't get a handle on and this led to speculation around Bump steering, where the braking induces toe in and causes the car to oversteer and the car to lock up. Cars have this to a degree, anyway, but it's either more extreme or happening differently... if this is indeed the issue.

If true then it is likely by design to find extra cornering grip under breaking, but it could make it hard to get a feel for the limit of the braking on turn in.

[FittingMechanics]

Can anybody summarize the expected implications of the TD in Spain for McLaren now? There has been very little news about it lately. Red Bull stills seems to hope that it will change the picture, but what do we think? They already tightened the flexing rules a couple of races ago which did not seem to have the slightest effect, so what remains for Spain now?

And IF McLaren would be as badly affected as some seem to think, wouldn’t it make sense for them to start testing less flexy wings already now to prepare for what’s coming?

Nobody really knows. My theory is that the teams that are in second year of flexi wing use gained less this year than those that just started to use it (diminishing returns), so my theory is that it will affect other teams more than McLaren but who knows.

The team seemed quite relaxed about it.

[mwillems]

Landos racecraft seemed to come undone not through talent but by rash heat of the moment decision making against top guys like Hamilton and Verstappen. And this is where Oscar wins a point against Lando.

I don't know if there's a distinction. That is the moment where a driver defines himself, against the other top guys, not easy moves under no pressure against midfield cars.

It's not just Hamilton and Verstappen where Norris falls short. George Russell also seems to trouble Lando. Check the first lap of the China sprint. The china GP, the last lap in Bahrain, Brazil '24. Russell has Lando's number.

I would compare that to Oscar's move on Hamilton on the last lap in Australia, the one he put on Lando in Monza last year, or on Leclerc in Baku. I don't see any area of race craft where I think Lando is better.

Lando strikes me as someone who can be fast under specific conditions, but there's a long way between being quick, and winning a championship.

One is pure racing talent and the other is how you mentally manage your approach to a race. Particularly if you're known to have lost a lot of P1s and might be overdriving to retain them.

I can't remember the same dramatic moves from Lando as Oscar, but he's overtaken many a front runner from a considered approach. I always enjoy watching Lando get to within a few seconds of the car in front, test the dirty air boundary, sit just behind it and charge the battery, then close in on the car in front whilst keeping the tyres in a good condition and then doing the job. It's like watching a big cat predator


They are different drivers and Lando has a lot more experience. Without doubt Oscar will learn the arts that Lando has gained over the years, but so far Landos experience has shown through. There's little doubt in my mind that Oscar will surpass Lando but whether it is this year remains to be seen, it's a long season.

[rayden]

I liked a recent post by A3-GP which gave the opinion that the aggressive anti dive front geometry adopted in the MCL39 is what is making the car difficult with Lando's style.

In my opinion, it is obvious. In Melbourne and Suzuka, Lando was faster than Oscar because there were few hard braking zones. In Shanghai and Bahrain, Oscar was faster because there were more of them. In theory, Lando should be good in Jeddah because there is very little load on the brakes.

Was Oscar really slower @ Suzuka though? Melbourne possibly - but even then it was less than a tenth on Saturday and he was breathing down Landos neck until the off in the race.

[crapu7]

Lando is clearly struggling with this year car compared to Piastri, and the next race in Jeddah will be no different. If he will not be able to adapt to it in the next 2-3 races he might not just lose the championship position to Oscar but, to Max and Russel too.

It will be interesting to see how close the other teams will be in Jeddah given that the MCL25 top speed is significantly below the others.

[BMMR61]

I liked a recent post by A3-GP which gave the opinion that the aggressive anti dive front geometry adopted in the MCL39 is what is making the car difficult with Lando's style.

In my opinion, it is obvious. In Melbourne and Suzuka, Lando was faster than Oscar because there were few hard braking zones. In Shanghai and Bahrain, Oscar was faster because there were more of them. In theory, Lando should be good in Jeddah because there is very little load on the brakes.

Was Oscar really slower @ Suzuka though? Melbourne possibly - but even then it was less than a tenth on Saturday and he was breathing down Landos neck until the off in the race.

When the margins are down as low as 0.05 in qualifying a driver can't realistically claim to be faster on a circuit. It has come down to circumstances, we can say though that so far Oscar has been performing with great consistency. The adventure on the grass in Melbourne could easily have been Lando too as they drove into a rain squall reminiscent of Lando's Sochi 2021 heartache. Circumstance. It's going to be a great watch to see if Lando can pick himself up again remembering his recovery from multiple squabbles with Max last year. Alternately, can Oscar maintain his fine run, he's making it look easy at the moment.

[mwillems]

In my opinion, it is obvious. In Melbourne and Suzuka, Lando was faster than Oscar because there were few hard braking zones. In Shanghai and Bahrain, Oscar was faster because there were more of them. In theory, Lando should be good in Jeddah because there is very little load on the brakes.

Was Oscar really slower @ Suzuka though? Melbourne possibly - but even then it was less than a tenth on Saturday and he was breathing down Landos neck until the off in the race.

When the margins are down as low as 0.05 in qualifying a driver can't realistically claim to be faster on a circuit. It has come down to circumstances, we can say though that so far Oscar has been performing with great consistency. The adventure on the grass in Melbourne could easily have been Lando too as they drove into a rain squall reminiscent of Lando's Sochi 2021 heartache. Circumstance. It's going to be a great watch to see if Lando can pick himself up again remembering his recovery from multiple squabbles with Max last year. Alternately, can Oscar maintain his fine run, he's making it look easy at the moment.

Oscar was consistently behind Lando in Q last year but you are right in that that gap itself gives far more context than the Q head to head. There was very little between them in Q last year and not much of a step for Oscar to get ahead of Lando, but many on here see the head to head overwhelmingly in Landos favour and leave it there.

Reality is that Oscar was on the cusp last year. But it's early days, 4 races isn't enough to judge consistency.