Analysis of 2010 WDC and WCC Odds

[Mr Alcatraz]

I placed my £20 on Lewis when the odds were 11/2. Longest odds I've seen on him so far; they've already shortened to 9/2 after topping the timesheets the other day.

Absolute bargain at those odds, I reckon. Although nothing compared to Button's odds last time this year...

I know a guy who won (a little under) £2,500 with a moderate wager on the first race.
Yea' it pissed me off.
I almost forgot, it looks like your in the pound seats as far as odds go. 11/2 for "The Boss" is history for this season!

[WhiteBlue]

The Autosport table



The odds for the third test week are early today. There has been little movement and so I will wrap up three hours before the end of testing. That is unlikely to make much change.



The odds in the UK are unchanged vs last weekend.

In Germany Hamilton lost ground and a move has happened in favor of Red Bull. Massa and Rosberg have both increased their odds and decreased their chances respectively.

In Spain Hamilton improved against the trend. Schumacher and Vettel were weaker. Webber, Button and Alonso improved.



In the over all world standing of the tier one we see practically no movement except a slight decline of Schumacher from 5,0 to 5,2. The tier two sees more change with Button recovering and Massa also changing the trend this time to get weaker. Rosberg continues to loose and Webber continues to gain. We now have a more even tier two field except for Rosberg who seems to be regarded as a weak driver in a weak car.

[horse]

I got Button at 20s. Thought that was a pretty good bet, really. If he's actually going to win it then the odds won't get any longer.

Massa has also looked like a clever bet to me, as well. Don't know why his odds are so long?

[WhiteBlue]

Massa has also looked like a clever bet to me, as well. Don't know why his odds are so long?

It is clear that Alonso is higher rated by the punters. If he manages to turn that into an early season advantage Ferrari will relatively early focus their effort on him. This is likely to be a three or four way fight to the wire. No team can afford to wait very long with team orders and Ferrari are traditionally quite early with that. I would not be surprised to see Alonso pull away with 15-20 points compared to Massa by Canada and Ferrari getting behind him.

[horse]

It is clear that Alonso is higher rated by the punters. If he manages to turn that into an early season advantage Ferrari will relatively early focus their effort on him. This is likely to be a three or four way fight to the wire. No team can afford to wait very long with team orders and Ferrari are traditionally quite early with that. I would not be surprised to see Alonso pull away with 15-20 points compared to Massa by Canada and Ferrari getting behind him.

I'd be feeling pig sick, if I were Massa facing that situation. This is his 5th season at Ferarri and then the team just pull the rug from under your feet to support the better decorated better paid newcomer. Do Ferarri know they can push Brazilians around? Does explain the odds though.

[Mr Alcatraz]

It is clear that Alonso is higher rated by the punters. If he manages to turn that into an early season advantage Ferrari will relatively early focus their effort on him. This is likely to be a three or four way fight to the wire. No team can afford to wait very long with team orders and Ferrari are traditionally quite early with that. I would not be surprised to see Alonso pull away with 15-20 points compared to Massa by Canada and Ferrari getting behind him.

I'd be feeling pig sick, if I were Massa facing that situation. This is his 5th season at Ferarri and then the team just pull the rug from under your feet to support the better decorated better paid newcomer. Do Ferarri know they can push Brazilians around? Does explain the odds though.

I think the situation is exactly the same as it was when Kimi came to the team.
Remember Kimi had to play "Bulks Bitch" in 2008. Ferrari have not put all their eggs in one basket.
Don't let bookies shade your opinion in this matter. Bulk has proved his talent.
I also think the majority of Tifosi would prefer to see Bulk win. But more importantly, as is true with me,
they will support anyone that the team trots out there, and look forward to
"The Bosses" tenure at The Scuderia after Fred retires!

[WhiteBlue]

Don't let bookies shade your opinion in this matter. Bulk has proved his talent.

Bookies have no opinion of their own. They offer you odds as a result of what people are betting. So the odds simply reflect the collective views of those people who are spending money on driver bets. This is why the odds are different in the UK, Germany and Spain.

For every € on Massa there are two to three € who say that Alonso will beat him. This hasn't significantly changed with the launch of the car. My prediction is that the team mate battle at Ferrari will be won by Alonso as the odds are saying.

I must say I'm a bit surprised by the difference between Vettel and Webber. Although I also think that Vettel will win this one I expect Webber to run him as close in the points as he did 2009.

[audifan]

not quite true wb
bookies usually start by 'making a book ' on what they THINK the punters will do , then adjust for the reality
of course they bet themselves on the outsiders by offering the long odds where they don't get any takers

[Miguel]

not quite true wb
bookies usually start by 'making a book ' on what they THINK the punters will do , then adjust for the reality
of course they bet themselves on the outsiders by offering the long odds where they don't get any takers

Mmm... I always thought it was the other way around: bookies publish their odds that, according to their knowledge, more closely reflects reality while producing a benefit. Then, these odds will be modified with both newer knowledge as well as previously made bets, in order to cover their backs in case many people start betting money for an underdog... and then it wins. Exactly like the stock markets.

[Mr Alcatraz]

not quite true wb
bookies usually start by 'making a book ' on what they THINK the punters will do , then adjust for the reality
of course they bet themselves on the outsiders by offering the long odds where they don't get any takers

Mmm... I always thought it was the other way around: bookies publish their odds that, according to their knowledge, more closely reflects reality while producing a benefit. Then, these odds will be modified with both newer knowledge as well as previously made bets, in order to cover their backs in case many people start betting money for an underdog... and then it wins. Exactly like the stock markets.

Audi Fan, and Miguel are correct here the books set the line, and then move it according to the amount of capitol being wagered. If you add up all odds they will always come out at about 10% unaccounted for. This is the house vig. or vigorish! To simplify it if you only had a single proposition, there are two ways the house institute this. For instance in betting a winner of a football match(with points adjusted) you have to wager $110 to collect $210. That’s a straight bet with a built in vig of just under 10% Then you have a money line,(which is what were dealing with in F1) to simplify it If the only two cars in the race were Hamilton vs. Button the line would read something like The Boss -120 Button +110. That means you need to bet $120 on The Boss to win $100, and you would need to bet $100 to win $110 on Button So if equal amounts go onto both propositions the house collects the 10% not accounted for in the money line. If a proposition gets too lopsided they will take it off the board, (accept no more bets on it) and then try to wager half that money at another book on the same proposition.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vigorish
Vigorish, or simply the vig, also known as juice or the take, is the amount charged by a bookmaker, or bookie, for his services. In the United States it also means the interest on a shark's loan. The term is Yiddish slang originating from the Russian word for winnings, vyigrysh. Bookmakers use this concept to make money on their wagers regardless of the outcome. Because of the vigorish concept, bookmakers should not have an interest in either side winning in a given sporting event. They are interested, instead, in getting equal action on each side of the event. In this way, the bookmaker minimizes his risk and always collects a small commission from the vigorish. The bookmaker will normally adjust the odds, or line, to attract equal action on each side of an event.

[Miguel]

I fail to see how's that different from what I said. I could be a bit thick today, though.

EDIT: Yes, I'm thick today.

[Mr Alcatraz]

I fail to see how's that different from what I said. I could be a bit thick today, though.

I should not have quoted you Miguel (or at least given you credit).
A very clumsy post on my behalf! I was correcting WB.
Just too lazy to cut you out of the quotation.
Sorry for the misunderstanding!
I think a quick edit ought to set things straight!

[WhiteBlue]

For our purposes (large betting volumes in F1) we can safely assume that the odds you get from bookmakers are reziprok proportional to the amount betted on the driver. You do not get a massive deviation. Of cause there is the house take or vig and you get an idea of it when you look at my percentage table of the top eight drivers. All bookies are typically above 100% just for the top eight. Skybet is taking 16%, BWIN 9% and IBETIPS 11% for the house. And this is before you add the small fish with odds exceeding 20. If you consider that you probably end up with 15-22% house charge.

[audifan]

lets put it this way , there are always 2 winners ....on the track and the bookie !
in england they used to be called turf accountants [ from the gee gee's of course ], as it is just a matter of balancing the book
the smaller practicioners will bet with the giants if the amount of money they have taken leaves them with a book where they could show a loss , although it is not unknown for a bookie to take a gamble him/herself

but that's analagous to the old saying that a lawyer who defends himself in court has a fool for a client

[WhiteBlue]

My observation at this time is that the winter tests have simply confirmed the theory that we will see four front running teams: Ferrari, McLaren, Red Bull and Mercedes. Red Bull entered the testing later and their drivers odds have adjusted to the expected odd structure a bit later.

These four teams will have designated top drivers who are perceived to be superior to their teams mates by the betting public by a factor of two to five.

The new teams do not pose any threat to the established teams. It is not likely that established mid field to lower half teams like Renault, BMW-Sauber, Williams, Force India and Toro Rosso will spring a surprise like Brawn did 2009. Their leading drivers carry odds typically twice or tenfold (40-100) of those seen by the second rated drivers of the top teams.

The last performance oriented testing round at Barcelona is not expected to bring fundamental changes to this structure of competitiveness. New aerodynamic packages may shift the order of the top teams but are unlikely to upset the split into top teams, mid fielders and new teams.