Analysis of 2010 WDC and WCC Odds

[Miguel]

The new teams do not pose any threat to the established teams. It is not likely that established mid field to lower half teams like Renault, BMW-Sauber, Williams, Force India and Toro Rosso will spring a surprise like Brawn did 2009. Their leading drivers carry odds typically twice or tenfold (40-100) of those seen by the second rated drivers of the top teams

Heh, this post of yours made me recall an idea of mine. Let's look at the settled teams, which should produce a reasonable car. For example Hulkenberg is rated right now at 100:1, and Rubens is 125:1. Do you think that the probability of Hulkenberg WDC is really almost 1%? OK, maybe this wasn't the best choice, because maybe Williams does have an about 2% chance of producing a world beater.

Here's another example: Sebastian Buemi is tipped at 66:1. Really? I mean, how likely is it that last year's RBR plus minor tuning is quicker than this year's RBR? In such a case, would the speed differential be enough to allow Buemi to beat Vettel and Webber? Then again, how likely is it that it will be faster than McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes?

For some reason, in a technology dominated event as is F1, I feel that the odds for the underdogs are incredibly low. It's possible that Button is the WDC with the lowest initial odds in history. I mean, it's technicaly possible that one of "my" electrons is at Jupiter right now. However, even if I have something around 10^28 electrons, it's very unlikely.

BTW: Is it me or is Bet & Win offering a meagre 2.5:1 for Alonso? I mean, we haven't even had our first qualifying session!

[WhiteBlue]

I have prepared an additional chart for the WCC odds.



Those are purely artificial because they have been made by adding the two driver odds up and dividing them by two. So what you basically see is the average of the two drivers odds. I could have simply done the sum but this way the odds will run comparable numbers to the WDC odds.

At the moment Ferrari are best placed of the top teams and Mercedes is worst. I'm interested how this will change at the final test or with the first race.

[horse]

These are the William Hills 2010 constructors odds. Same order as yours WhiteBlue, but a lot tighter.

Link to William Hills

And the easyodds.com comparison table:

Link to easyodds.com

[WhiteBlue]

Thank you horse for making me aware that there are now odds out for WCC as well. the last time I looked I did not find any.

William Hill WCC odds show that I did not need to bother with anything beyond the top teams yet. They also show odds very close to the lead drivers odds. That would be consistent with people making much more bets on lead drivers than on second drivers.

Ferrari 2.62
McLaren 3.00
Mercedes GP 4.50
Red Bull 4.50
Renault 34.00
BMW Sauber 34.00
Williams 41.00
Force India 67.00
Lotus 81.00
USF1 101.00
Campos Meta 101.00
Virgin racing 101.00
Toro Rosso 101.00

[Miguel]

Those are purely artificial because they have been made by adding the two driver odds up and dividing them by two. So what you basically see is the average of the two drivers odds. I could have simply done the sum but this way the odds will run comparable numbers to the WDC odds.

I'm sorry to be nitpicky but, if Fernando is 2:1, Ferrari can't have less than 2:1 to win the WDC. You could have summed probabilities, and assume that P(Ferrari) = P(Fernando) + P(Felipe). In that case, we'd have the following:

1. Ferrari - 30.8%, which I think corresponds to 2.4:1
2. McLaren - 3.4:1
3. Mercedes - 3.9:1
4. Red Bull - 3.8:1

Any mistakes you see are my fault. Well, it's also my eyesight's fault, since I'm a bit tired.

EDIT: This is pretty close to the William Hill odds, although both Mercedes and Red Bull would give you more money there than in "Bet-Miguel"

[WhiteBlue]

Those are purely artificial because they have been made by adding the two driver odds up and dividing them by two. So what you basically see is the average of the two drivers odds. I could have simply done the sum but this way the odds will run comparable numbers to the WDC odds.

I'm sorry to be nitpicky but, if Fernando is 2:1, Ferrari can't have less than 2:1 to win the WDC. You could have summed probabilities, and assume that P(Ferrari) = P(Fernando) + P(Felipe). In that case, we'd have the following:

1. Ferrari - 30.8%, which I think corresponds to 2.4:1
2. McLaren - 3.4:1
3. Mercedes - 3.9:1
4. Red Bull - 3.8:1

I have already revealed how the odds were derived in my table. Ferrari = (Alonso + Massa)/2. So for the last entry you get Ferrari= (3,6+10)/2=6,8. The odds are probably deviating because the betting on Ferrari is much closer modeled by the Alonso betting than the Massa betting. So using both drivers betting with equal weights is distorting the odds. But hey, its only a game with numbers anyway.

I would probably not have bothered if I had known Williams Hill was already running odds for WCC.

And here something special:

Manchild's Special Schumacher Bet

[Miguel]

Well, my reasoning is that the team of the WDC and the WCC are highly correlated. The deviations in the last 30 years have been Ferrari in 2008, Ferrari again in 1999, Williams in 1994, Williams in 1986, Ferrari in 1983 and 1982 and Williams in 1981. So 7/30. You may blame williams' tyres at Adelaide '86 and the Ferrari driver disgrace in '82 for the stats, making it 5/30. It's 3/20 for the last 20 years anyway.

Nowadays, very few people think that Bulk sucks, and McLaren has two world champions driving for them. So if one of these four drivers wins the WDC, is almost certain that his team will win the WCC. In that case, the probability of <Team> winning the WDC is not the average probability of its drivers, but the sum of them.

By the way, thanks for the Schumacher bet. That made my day. Someone does have sense of humour. Must that collision happen in the last race?

[Mr Alcatraz]

Manchild's Special Schumacher Bet 40:1
I think it's a higher probability than Renault winning the WCC!

[WhiteBlue]

Just a quick shot of BWIN. Vettel takes P2 for the first time in the betting in Germany. Todays times by Webber will not hurt that trend.

[jon-mullen]

Bodog the American book site has finally opened for action, here's their odds (27 Feb.):

Alonso        5/2  = 3.5
Hamilton      7/2  = 4.5
Schumacher    5/1  = 6.0
Vettel        11/2 = 6.5
Massa         8/1  = 9.0
Button        12/1 = 13.0
Webber        18/1 = 19.0
Rosberg       20/1 = 21.0

[WhiteBlue]

As promised in this post I will start to track the WCC odds at Williams Hill. Today I have taken the second shot. So it is now possible to plot a serial graph. The previous WCC graph with odds averaged from the driver odds will be discontinued.



According to todays testing I feel that Toro Rosso are under rated. I initially though I make the cut off at 100 but due to the rather impressive testing I have included Toro Rosso.

Tomorrow after the test there will also be new driver odds.

[timbo]

According to todays testing I feel that Toro Rosso are under rated. I initially though I make the cut off at 100 but due to the rather impressive testing I have included Toro Rosso.

Agreed. Lotus over TR? Can't be.

[WhiteBlue]

According to todays testing I feel that Toro Rosso are under rated. I initially though I make the cut off at 100 but due to the rather impressive testing I have included Toro Rosso.

Agreed. Lotus over TR? Can't be.

The WCC odds seem to be rather uninformed. I also see Renault weaker than Williams and Sauber.

[horse]

I would have expected Sauber to be a little tighter, perhaps. There is a chance that they might get the Brawn effect this year. BMW's exit is very similar to that of Honda's and they may have been designing a winning car at Hinwil for this year. A tough one to call until we get to race and the kind of advantage the Brawn had last year won't happen again. That thing is still a BMW though and it might just be a good one.

[doopie2you]

I know it is very early to start betting on who is going to take the Championchip this season.

But who do you GUESS is going to be very strong this season? And who will going to be very dissapointed with their results?

Personaly i think Hamilton is going to take the Drivers Championship. And i hope that McLaren wil take the Constructurs Championship, but i think that Ferrari will get that one.

And i think that the new teams : Lotus/Virgin/Campos/ USF1( if it starts) will get NO points this year. If their wouldn't be a race that everybody crashes.

1. Mclaren
2.Ferrari
3.Mercedes GP