Post here all non technical related topics about Formula One. This includes race results, discussions, testing analysis etc. TV coverage and other personal questions should be in Off topic chat.
Raw data as supplied by Skybet, Bwin and Ibetips. Computation of World Odds and Pies for all Odds. Updated for today.
Series of World Odds updated for today and order adjusted to current odds.
Vettel takes P2 for the first time. Webber also makes progress.
Schumacher seriously talked down his chances and the odds got longer. Rosberg also deteriorates. I think the Merc drivers are now a good bet. They are under rated considering the last test went ok and they expect significant aero upgrades by Bahrain. Following are lap times of the top teams from Saturday Barcelona. Sunday's data have not yet been released by the web site MSfree.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best ..............................organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)
We have seen some changes over the last week although there was no testing. So I decided to bring an update.
From the single national odds Rosberg significantly improves in Germany.
The constructor odds remain unchanged.
Alonso and Schumacher both loose a bit to Hamilton and Vettel. It looks like the punters do not believe in the big Mercedes upgrade for Bahrain but think that the Red Bull will be fast.
From the tier two drivers Rosberg improves significantly due to his massive gain in Germany.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best ..............................organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)
Although the odds do not represent the race the qualifying is included. I don't think they have updated to reflect the race. It is to come tomorrow perhaps.
A massive move from Schumacher to Alonso. Button is destroyed. Vettel makes good ground as Hamilton looses also.
Easily the biggest change in odds we had so far. The biggest defeat in the team mate battle odds is Webber vs Vettel.
Constructors now also more balanced although I feel Williams is probably over rated at this time. Red Bull should also be in front of McLaren. Toro Rosso and Lotus are now more appropriate.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best ..............................organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)
Thanks for the update, whiteblue. It's great to see the evolution of the odds, and my only criticism is that the odds in the back are hard to see. It's funny to see how much the odds for Button have degradated. They are basically 3.5:1 for Hamilton. In any case, and if the odds don't reflect the race, I have a hard time understanding how could the Alonso odds go down to 2.3. I mean, he was 4 tenths behind Bulk yesterday. Following the McLaren pattern, Massa vs Alonso is also about 3:1 favouring the guy from Oviedo.
One final point: regarding your team odds, if you want to show the leading teams with anything resembling detail there are basically two options. You can either disregard the slower teams (I would put some money to Lotus only if it was like 10^6:1), or you can use a logarithmic scale.
Finally, a Force India vs Williams bet might be interesting. From Bahrain, I understand that maybe FI have a slightly better car, but IMHO the Williams drivers are a better lineup.
I am not amazed by F1 cars in Monaco. I want to see them driving in the A8 highway: Variable radius corners, negative banking, and extreme narrowings that Tilke has never dreamed off. Oh, yes, and "beautiful" weather tops it all.
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." Niels Bohr
The main reason for doing this exercise is not to provide people with opportunities for betting. I do this more for a reality check for the fans. Sometimes fans have no realistic feeling how the real world looks at driver qualities and chances. With the occasional reality check by seeing how drivers and teams were rated during the year we can perhaps avoid the worst of the ying yang.
Regarding the team mate battles the odds support the view that Ferrari and Mercedes have more evenly matched team mates while Red Bull and McLaren seem to have firmly designated second drivers if the trend continues.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best ..............................organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)
WhiteBlue wrote:The main reason for doing this exercise is not to provide people with opportunities for betting. I do this more for a reality check for the fans. Sometimes fans have no realistic feeling how the real world looks at driver qualities and chances. With the occasional reality check by seeing how drivers and teams were rated during the year we can perhaps avoid the worst of the ying yang.
Regarding the team mate battles the odds support the view that Ferrari and Mercedes have more evenly matched team mates while Red Bull and McLaren seem to have firmly designated second drivers if the trend continues.
Thanks WhiteBlue. Very interesting. For the drivers I'd probably guess Massa's odds being closer to Hamilton's. For the constructors, I'd project Force India ahead of both Renault and Williams. Interesting charts all in all.
I have prepared some quite interesting additional analysis. Obviously the driver odds are influenced by the perceived strength of the car. I have tried to dial that out in a way.
This chart shows the relative strength of the cars. I have divided all odds by the odds of the WCC leader which happens to be Ferrari at the time. This is why Ferrari are showing a one.
In this chart I have devided the personal WDC odds of the drivers by the relative car odd. The objective as I said is to dial out the relative perceived strength of the car. It makes for interesting ranking. I'm not saying this represents the true driver ability but I would think that it comes closer to it than the absolute driver odds.
I think it compliments Vettel a bit because the strength of the Red Bull has not been realized totally by the odds. Button obviously looks pretty bad considering he is the reigning champion.
Hamilton will look better I guess as the season progresses when the betting public appreciates the strength of the Red Bull.
Rosberg will also get closer to Schumacher if he continues to show the good form of yesterday.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best ..............................organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)
I think Lewis Hamilton will be the champion.
He was relieved to take third place behind the Ferraris of Fernando Alonso and Felipe Massa in the season-opening Bahrain Grand Prix.
Hamilton was a second off the pace in qualifying but, once past Nico Rosberg, his McLaren matched the leaders in a race won by Ferrari's Fernando Alonso.
"In clear air, on new tyres, the car felt great. It's good to know we can match these guys," he said.
"I am quite happy but the Ferrari is definitely the car to beat."
Alonso won on his debut for Ferrari after the early leader, Red Bull driver Sebastian Vettel, hit trouble.
We have to make a big step because in the middle sector of the lap, we are really lacking
Lewis Hamilton
The German led from the start, but Alonso and team-mate Felipe Massa closed in on him after the drivers' only pit stops.
They seemed set for an intriguing battle for the lead, but Vettel slowed thanks to a loss of power with 16 laps to go and the Ferraris swept by.
Hamilton lost a place to Mercedes driver Rosberg on the first lap, after being pushed wide by Massa.
He had to follow the German until his pit stop on lap 15, by which time he had lost nearly 20 seconds to Vettel.
Hamilton said: "I am quite happy. We got held up a bit at the beginning so we were not able to show our true pace, especially in that first stint, and keep up with the Ferraris.
"Nevertheless, third place is a great start for us but we have a lot of work to do to close the gap.
"My start was good - I actually got a real perfect start - (but) Felipe pushed me very wide. Unfortunately I braked a bit late and lost major ground. Rosberg went past me and I had no chance to get back on him because he was too quick in the mid-sector.
"I got squeezed by Felipe at Turn Four. He was being quite competitive and fortunately he gave me space at the end. I didn't realise how far ahead I was by then, though.
McLaren's Jenson Button
Ferrari are the team to beat - Jenson Button
"If I had have pulled that move off on the outside I would have been able to keep up with Fernando. I honestly feel that I would have been able to keep up but it's all about if and when.
"But we have to make a big step because in that middle sector (of the lap) we are really lacking.
"Since I have been here at McLaren we have never really had an amazing rear end. The car is great in the high speed but not so good in the low- and medium-speed corners at the rear, so we really need to pick up some down force there."
Alonso said he expected a close fight throughout the season after a race in which the Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren cars appeared to be closely matched.
"The drivers in the top four teams are all in contention for the title," Alonso said.
"We saw the potential of the McLaren today. We saw the potential of the Red Bull - they were quicker than us in qualifying and maybe a little quicker in the race as well.
"We saw the pace of the Mercedes in free practice on Friday and in the early part of qualifying. But it will change from race to race."
Last edited by mx_tifoso on 07 Apr 2010, 04:12, edited 1 time in total.
Reason:Removed link from message.
UK odds show significant loss for Schumacher and Rosberg and gain for Button.
German odds have the same trend with smaller loss for Rosberg.
Spanish odds are pretty much in sync with British odds plus improvement for Webber.
World odds show massive gain for Button, huge loss for Schumacher and reasonable loss for Rosberg with slight gain for Webber.
Relative car strength show equal status for Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull, but massive loss for Mercedes.
When the relative car odds are applied to the driver odds we see no significant change in the appreciation for Vettel to Hamilton. Button and Rosberg massively improve in the car corrected appreciation while Webber improves and Massa slides a bit.
Last edited by WhiteBlue on 29 Mar 2010, 14:52, edited 6 times in total.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best ..............................organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)
WhiteBlue wrote:
In this chart I have devided the personal WDC odds of the drivers by the relative car odd. The objective as I said is to dial out the relative perceived strength of the car. It makes for interesting ranking. I'm not saying this represents the true driver ability but I would think that it comes closer to it than the absolute driver odds.
I think it compliments Vettel a bit because the strength of the Red Bull has not been realized totally by the odds. Button obviously looks pretty bad considering he is the reigning champion.
Hamilton will look better I guess as the season progresses when the betting public appreciates the strength of the Red Bull.
Rosberg will also get closer to Schumacher if he continues to show the good form of yesterday.
One obvious problem with this approach is that if there is one good driver and one bad driver in the team the good driver will be overly represented in the normalized odds. Eg, vettel vs webber, good car that _should_ be WCC favorites, but I don't think the general public has enough faith in Webber being a good enough driver => higher WCC odds => better perception of Vettel in the normalized results.
So the worse the co-driver is, the better its gonna reflect on the better driver. Maybe one way to fix this deficiency in the normalization would be to take into consideration the WDC odds-difference between the two drivers in a team to give a more weighted normalization.
Thanks, WhiteBlue, I extremely appreciate your efforts.
Interesting to see Schumacher and Button swap between being contenders and also rans in just one race. Schumacher's poor race also seems to have done in Mercedes chance of a constructors title according to the bookies. I assume they thought this challenge would be led by Schumacher rather than Rosberg. Saying that Rosberg's odd improved little for a reasonable performance over the weekend.
"Words are for meaning: when you've got the meaning, you can forget the words." - Chuang Tzu
imightbewrong wrote:One obvious problem with this approach is that if there is one good driver and one bad driver in the team the good driver will be overly represented in the normalized odds. Eg, vettel vs webber, good car that _should_ be WCC favorites, but I don't think the general public has enough faith in Webber being a good enough driver => higher WCC odds => better perception of Vettel in the normalized results.
So the worse the co-driver is, the better its gonna reflect on the better driver. Maybe one way to fix this deficiency in the normalization would be to take into consideration the WDC odds-difference between the two drivers in a team to give a more weighted normalization.
But interesting none the less.
Yeah, that would be one way to do it, but I would not be comfortable with it from a systematic stand point. The extremely positive appreciation of Vettel can be caused by the dismal reliability of the Red Bull. Clearly the betters have no confidence in Red Bull keeping up the pace advantage or improving the reliability. Normally the Red Bull should feature much stronger compared to the McLaren.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best ..............................organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)
horse wrote:Thanks, WhiteBlue, I extremely appreciate your efforts.
Interesting to see Schumacher and Button swap between being contenders and also rans in just one race. Schumacher's poor race also seems to have done in Mercedes chance of a constructors title according to the bookies. I assume they thought this challenge would be led by Schumacher rather than Rosberg. Saying that Rosberg's odd improved little for a reasonable performance over the weekend.
The way I see it we are heading for a Vettel vs Alonso championship race. Of course Red Bull reliability is currently screwing up Vettel's chances big time but he has been very unlucky as the comparison with Webber shows. He got all the component failures.
Hamilton Massa and Button are also contenders but in danger to play second fiddle shortly.
Schumacher and Rosberg are out of the race realistically unless the Merc improves dramatically. Webber is also out of the race due to his crappy performance both in qualifying and the races.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best ..............................organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)
