Analysis of 2010 WDC and WCC Odds

[WhiteBlue]

Interesting idea. The question is: Would they have enough market share to reach objective figures? And would they operate sufficiently international to avoid national driver preferences?

Obviously I cannot switch the system inside a season but for next year it might be an option.

[paipa]

Interesting idea. The question is: Would they have enough market share to reach objective figures? And would they operate sufficiently international to avoid national driver preferences?

Obviously I cannot switch the system inside a season but for next year it might be an option.

I think national driver preference bias is not really an issue there, since if the odds were out of balance (ie. not reflecting true probabilites) serious bettors would just accept all misjudged bets and make a lot of money out of it. It really feels like an exchange, events affect rates immediately.

I don't know about market share, but a couple of millions of dollars are traded every race (you can find some stats/graphs for open events). I checked the WDC stats and most business was generated by Alonso, then Vettel, Hamilton, Schumacher, Webber, Button in this order. No signs of fanboy fueled betting, considering it's a British company.

[WhiteBlue]

Time for another update of the odds and tables.



Obviously the Red Bull drivers have changed position as the number three behind the McLaren drivers in the WDC table. Alonso is falling back due to his bad luck with the safety car. Kubica is now the sixth highest driver.



In the odds data table the last UK odds were taken from Williams Hill as Skybet does not offer F1 bets any more. The switch will be continued. Bwin gave no odds for Michael Schumacher any more.



In the decimal odds picture Schumacher, Rosberg and Massa are not shown due to the relatively high odds. Their chance for the WDC is very low and until they get anywhere near the top scorers I will not show the odds to simplify the graphs. I have also taken out the testing season and started the graph mid March now. Alonso's odds are better than his result and he goes from P5 to P3. He basically switches places with Webber. Webber looses heavily with his shunt in Valencia. Vettel can narrow the gap to Hamilton.



The WCC table sees very little change. McLaren and Red Bull increase their lead on Ferrari and Mercedes. Renault, Force India, Williams and Sauber make good progress with the European race. Sauber hauls a very nice load for the Kobayashi drive.



In the relative car odds McLaren still lead the way followed by Red Bull and Ferrari on a distant third place with 5,56. Mercedes is now out of the picture because their odds simply are too bad.



In the WDC odds corrected by car odds There is little change. Vettel closes down on Hamilton but Alonso still punches above his weight. He may look good because his team mate it not pulling his weight as the Red Bull and McLaren drivers do.

[WhiteBlue]

The traditional review to the odds after the Brit GP is a bit late. So aplologies for that.



In the top group of the WDC table Webber and Vettel have now changed positions. In the tier two group Kubica and Rosberg have swapt positions and in the lower ranks Kobayashi has overtaken Liuzzi. Fundamentally nothing has changed except that Alonso now looks firmly to belong to tier two.



In the data table SKYbet UK have dropped Massa and Kubica from the list so that those values do not go any more in their world score. Bwin have dropped Schumacher so that his only odds now come from Ibetips.



The world odds change significantly with Webber now going to P3 from P5 and Alonso going back to P5 with very heavily stacked odds of 13.3 against him. Button looses moderately but does not change position. Vettel is almost unaffected getting only a 0.2 penalty on his odds. It looks like the punters and bookies are recognizing his pole and his strong recovery drive. Webber improves significantly from 8.5 to 5.8 but is still a long way from Vettel at 3.3. His previous mistakes don't seem forgotten.

The graph is also giving us some clues how the changes in personal performance level of the drivers impact on the odds. If you see Webber versus Vettel you see that the betting money massively changed their view after Mark managed two victories in Spain and Monaco. When he screwed up again in Valencia his odds went up significantly and his season graph looks indeed erratic like his performance over the season. Vettel's odds hardly change as he is putting in strings of pole positions when his car is undamaged and when he makes mistakes like the bad start in Silverstone he also makes big efforts like his recovery drive.

The other helpful aspect of the odds is that they put Button's points standing in proper perspective. Although Button is P2 on points he is only on P4 in the odds. I believe that this is his true chance to become WDC again.



In the WCC points table the McLaren dominance continues. They look like having a good advantage from the first half of the season. Red Bull again missed precious points by Vettel's botched start and puncture. Further down the order Mercedes have stabilized their position against Renault by Rosberg's podium. And sensationally Sauber overtake Toro Rosso for P7 in the constructors table.



The car odds of the teams that are ranked for the WCC look even more like a two horse race now. Ferrari is practically out of the game. Relative to the contenders their odds are now 11.5 at which point I usually took the team out of the graph. I'll wait a bit if they recover some ground because they suffered a lot of relatively heavy penalties in the last two races.



In the driver odds corrected by relative car odds Alonso is not in the game any more because his team has exceeded a 10.0 score. It starts to be too distortive at this point. I might just have left out that graph now as both remaining teams are almost equal on odds. So this graph currently mirrors the absolute driber odds.

[ringo]

I remember Webber was almost ignored when the season started, now it seems Shumacher and Alonso are the ones on the edge of the table.
The odds reflect the strength of the redbull car and their ability to be top 3 in most races if all goes well.

[WhiteBlue]

I think we will loose Alonso and Button from the top group within the next three or four races. The final race will be between Hamilton, Webber and Vettel. As soon as Button drops - if he does - Red Bull will have a very difficult decision on their hands.

[ringo]

I feel the same. Vettel is very unlucky so far. When he shakes it off, he will put himself in clear contention.
He is learning the value of finishing, and not necessarily risking his race with every scrap.

[WhiteBlue]

Review after the German GP



With the German result as it stands now Alonso closes the gap to the leaders and looks like being back in contention. Vettel equalizes Webber's points standing.



In the odds table Rosberg and Kubica are dropped by various bookies and Mercedes are not shown any more. There are no particular national differences between the three odds in the basket.



In the world driver odds Alonso makes a huge jump from fifth to third and actually cuts his odds to less than a third of the Silverstone level. He is now solidly back in the leading group with odds between 3.1 and 4.0. Webber and Button are probably expected to become #2 by the betting public. Their odds do not reflect the standing in the championship and that must be related to future performance expectations.



Not much changes in the constructor table. Ferrari close the gap slightly but there is no fundamental change.



In the relative car odds Red Bull take over the lead again from McLaren. Ferrari move back into contention but remain a second tier bet for the constructors championship.

[WhiteBlue]

Here we go with the customary review of the championship tables and the betting odds for the Hungarian GP.



The drivers table changes quite significantly. Webber goes to the top and Hamilton drops to second. Vettel takes P3 as Button drops to P4. Alonso closes the gap to the leaders nicely. It is still a clear five way fight and the competitors are closer than before. So an exciting prospect for the fans and viewers.



The national odds table show Rosberg dropping out of the odds in the UK. He is pretty much out of contention by his own admission.



In the WDC odds Vettel defends his P1. One has to assume he did it by his qualifying pace. The punters seem to hope that he will get back to mistake and trouble free races again, and so do I. Webber capitalizes from Vettel's mistakes and takes P2 in the odds for the very first time. His experience and race craft is more and more appreciated by the betting money after some good race results.

The lack of pace of the McLaren makes a dent into the hopes of Hamilton and Button. They both get their odds almost doubled. Hamilton suffers less although he gets no race result in Hungary but his qualifying speed is consistently higher than Buttons. For the betters Button is practically out of the race unless something surprising happens.

Alonso is rated very strong on P3 of the odds ahead of Hamilton which is more owed to good driving and getting #1 status from Ferrari I feel than the outright speed of the car. In Spa I expect the McLarens much stronger than in Hungary and they could beat the Ferraris there. So Alonso makes hay while the sun shines for him.



The constructor table shows Red Bull taking the lead from McLaren. They clearly have the downforce by any technology and standard you look at. Qualifying and race pace in hungary is 0.9-1.2 s ahead. So no big surprise there. Hamilton's mechanical failure drops McLaren and helps Red Bull to take the lead. The rest of the table shows little change. Renault close the gap to Mercedes and Williams gain on Force India.



The standardized WCC odds show a big punishment for McLaren. Their odds more than double which is more than their drivers get. It reflects that the car is off the pace in qualifying and the race on high downforce circuits. At least McLaren hold their P2 position. Ferrari also fall back but not quite so bad as McLaren which may be due to their better front wing and blown diffusor implementation.



In the standardized driver odds Alonso shines mightily because he makes the most out a lowly rated car. Hamilton also looks good for qualifying better than his car.

[WhiteBlue]

A comparison how the betting money looks at 2010 WDC odds and how F1T users saw it. Hamilton, Button and Alonso look very similar. Vettel and Webber are practically inverted.

[raymondu999]

Can we get an update on this thread? I'd be interested what the bookies think now. If there's one thing I hate about the new points system, is that it greatly exaggerates every position. A championship won by 1 point (in old money) would have a lot more sentimental value than one won by 5 points. As we see it, Lewis and Webber are seemingly running away with things on the leaderboard, but in reality there's still 150 points to play for.

[WhiteBlue]

An here we go with the customary review of tables and odds.



At the top Hamilton catches Webber again while Vettel, Button and Alonso write a zero round. That really has a big impact on the Hamilton/Webber lead. The accident Vettel/Button could become a crucial event for the WDC. Kubica passes Rosberg in the WDC and Sutil passes Schumacher. The difference for Force India is that their F-duct seems to work out of the box and Mercedes is still crap.



Massa is not shown in the German and Austrian bets any more. The world odds pie shows a clear race of Webber vs. Hamilton. Alonso is almost out of the race with the betters.



Vettel goes from front runner to outsider in the space of one race. He did not qualify fastest as he did in many races before and he lost crucial points in an abysmal race. I think that the pendulum has gone a bit too low for him but he certainly gave his WDC chances a huge blow with that bus stop accident in Spa. It also took out Button and the punters are not seeing the sitting champion in the race for 2010 any more.



McLaren have massively caught up with Red Bull in the WCC table which is mainly caused by their mastery of the blown diffusor. They were heard to use retarded ignition mapping not only in qualifying but also in the race. They may have to carry more fuel but it seems beneficial to their pace. The front wing/floor clamp down also seems to have an effect together with a track that suits the power of the Merc engine.



In the relative performance of the cars the smart money sees Ferrari fall off the cliff again. Their odds exceed the two leading cars by a factor of ten. This usually means the car is out of the race.



In the corrected driver odds Alonso is taken out because the Ferrari odds would be too distortive. Hamilton really shines as most betters have confidence that he will clearly outperform his team mate. Webber also gets a lot more support after Vettel made significant mistakes in two consecutive races and he did not.

[WhiteBlue]

Odds and tables update after Monza with five races remaining.



Webber takes P1 from Hamilton and Alonso goes to P3. Rosberg overtakes Kubica again as Schumacher swaps with Sutil. Hülkenberg makes good progress and takes Liuzzi.



Nothing unusual in the national odds.



The relative positions in the odds remain unchanged but Alonso makes a big jump back into contention. With 4.9 he almost catches Vettel on 4.8. Button is improved but looks basically out of the running. His odds have always been worse than his table position.



Not much change in the constructor table.



In the car odds Ferrari have come closer but they are still no thread to Read Bull and McLaren in the rating of the punters.



In the car corrected driver odds Vettel falls back behind Webber which is expected after Webber leads the table.

[Miguel]

As you did before, Whiteblue, I'd exclude Alonso from the car-corrected odds. That was a very good move from your part. Ferrari is so far back into the championship that it's almost impossible for them to recover the lost ground. It's by a brisk, but getting 5 1-2 in a row almost doesn't guarantee Ferrari the WCC. The odds of Ferrari getting the WCC are abysmal, indeed, while Alonso's are not that bad (the bookies' 1:4,8 is about 17%).

It's not implausible that the WDC will be won by the third car in the WCC. The only other times this has happened, AFAIK, were seasons 1982 and 1983

[WhiteBlue]

As a rule of thumb I show drivers as long as the standardized car odds are lower than 10.