Analysis of 2010 WDC and WCC Odds

[mike]

well i think it sorta shows the characteristics of the V8 engine it used to be silverstone and melbourne
but vettel won silverstone 2009.
i think its because melbourne is a high speed low grip circuit so if the car works there it will for sure be a good car as the season goes on

[raymondu999]

Has anyone noticed, btw, that Vettel's performances relative to Webber this year, are very similar to last year? The tracks that Webber beats Vettel this year, are the tracks that he did last year, and the tracks where Vettel beat Webber are the tracks he did last year as well. The only exceptions I can think of are Spa and Silverstone where Vettel got a puncture.

[WhiteBlue]

I'm coming to my customary review of the tables and odds after the Singapore GP. BWIN did not have odds for a couple of days and that delayed my analysis.



At the top of the points table we see much change as Hamilton writes a second DNF in a row and Alonso wins twice. Alonso now takes P2 and Hamilton P3. Vettel progresses to P4. Sutil catches Schumacher again. Barichello looks like he could also catch Schumacher by Abu Dhabi or before.



No unusual changes in the odds data table to comment.



The WDC odds see some significant change with Hamilton falling from P2 to P4 and Alonso going from P4 to P2. They effectively swap position. According to the betting money we now have a three horse race with Button pretty much out of the picture and Hamilton relatively far behind in a slow McLaren. Vettel is hanging on to the third position due to his proven speed in the superior Red Bull. Webber has a firm grip on P1 by his consistency to make high points finishes. He is not punished for being slow in the Red Bull because he makes few mistakes and has luck on his side (for now).



There is little change in the Constructors table except for McLaren loosing ground on Red Bull and Williams catching up on Force India.



In the relative strength of the constructors Ferrari take another hit although they are now much closer to the pace. Massa has not been pulling his weight and the Ferrari's chances of a WCC are rapidly braking down.



In the drivers odds corrected by car odds Alonso isn't shown due to Ferrari not being in contention for the WCC any more. Their relative odds versus the leader Red Bull are more than ten now. Hamilton is leading in this view now due to his points standing combined with the relative low strenght of the McLaren WCC odds.

[horse]

Whether or not the Korean GP goes ahead will have a massive impact on these odds. Let's assume 240 points is a reasonable estimate from a remaining maximum of 75 points should it not be run and there are 18 GPs.

For this target Webber needs 38 points (a win and a 3rd place or 1 3rd and 2 4th places), Alonso needs 49 (2 wins or 3 2nd places), and from 180 points (ie Hamilton, Vettel and Button) 60 points is needed (2 wins and a 5th place or higher). Thus, without the Korean GP it will be extremely unlikely for these three to win. Webber must be the strong favourite in this scenario.

If the Korean GP is run and, say, 250 points is still a good target, then these three need about 70 points from the last four (3 wins or 4 podiums). This is a challenging task, but still doable in my opinion.

[WhiteBlue]

I believe that there is at least a 90% chance for the Korean GP to go ahead and accordingly I think that there are still 100 points up for grab by the drivers.

I think that Ferrari will be weaker than last seen in Singapore for the next race. Red Bull will set the pace and McLaren will be on par with Ferrari or close. This should be the best chance for Vettel to win a race from pole again if it remains dry for qualifying and race. Seb needs to keep superior speed compared to Webber and focus on avoiding mistakes.

Korea will probably be a mixture from Singapore and Suzuka with still some advantages for Red Bull but another good opportunity for Alonso to make it to the pole. Red Bull needs to be perfect to take the honors here.

The last two races we will have to review when the form book is known from Suzuka.

[WhiteBlue]

Here we go with the odds and tables review after the Japanese GP



Sebastian Vettel has pulled equal on points with Alonso. Schumacher got more points than usual while Sutil and his suitor Barrichello failed to score significantly. Heidfeld chalkes up a score and may outrun De la Rosa at the next race.



Not much changes in the data tables



Button and Hamilton are practically out of the race if we believe the smart money. Vettel takes P2 from Alonso by merit of the fastest package around Suzuka. The betters obviously perceive Red Bull/Vettel faster over the last three races than Ferrari/Alonso. Webber profits from his luck and from making very few mistakes. Although he is consistently the slower of the Red Bull drivers his points tally keeps him the favorite with the betting comunity.



Not much changes in the constructor points table in terms of relative standing. Red Bull gets maximum points from Japan and increase their lead on McLaren and Ferrari. It is probably over for Renault to catch Mercedes after a double DNF of their cars. Williams and FI are very close and my guess is that P6 will go to Williams.



In the relative car odds Ferrari score over fifty and fall off the table. McLaren are also pretty dismal and retain very small chances in the view of the punters to grab the constructor's championship. Bar a major catastrophe like dual DNFs Red Bull have pretty much sealed that constructors title by now.

There is only one team left with relative car odds smaller than ten. So it makes no sense any more to show a driver comparison weighted by car odds.

[Miguel]

If you look at the Constructors' leaderboard, you'll see McLaren trailing RBR by more than one "race" (1-2) and Ferrari falls below two "races", with three to go. Seeing how Massa is performing, I'd dare say that even with 6 consecutive DNF's by RBR and 3 Alonso wins, Ferrari would not overtake RBR in the standings. And, of course, neither case is too likely to happen.

The McLaren drivers are now both, for the first time, more than 1 win behind the leader. Three consecutive Hamilton wins would not grant him the title. In the case of Button, it's even worse: if Webber is third in the remaining races, he wouldn't win the WDC with three wins. In any case, we shouldn't forget how far back Kimi was in 2007.

Today Alonso mentioned that he believes three more podiums will give him the title. I reckon that would only hold true for Mark, even when taken into account how expensive podiums are this year. Nevertheless, it's entirely plausible that 1 win plus two podium finishes will give either Vettel or Alonso the crown.

[PlatinumZealot]

It depends.. Alonso and vettel are 14 points aback. Hamilton is 28 points Button 31. 75 points max up for grabs. If Button scores 75 and Webber scores 42 points (4th, 3rd, 3rd), Alonso and the rest score less than 42 points, Button wins!

It's not over yet.

[WhiteBlue]

Look at the bookies odds! They see things much more realistic than the fans do. Of course it is not over but the probability for a McLaren driver to win the WDC is very low. I would not bet serious money on it unless I intended to say Sayonara to this world anyway.

[imightbewrong]

It is quite a vote of no confidence on Vettel from a bookies side to put him on the same odds as Alonso. Seeing as they are equal on points and Vettel is driving the by margin best car. Guess it is the experience of Alonso that comes into play here.

[WhiteBlue]

It is quite a vote of no confidence on Vettel from a bookies side to put him on the same odds as Alonso. Seeing as they are equal on points and Vettel is driving the by margin best car. Guess it is the experience of Alonso that comes into play here.

Vettel's odds are much better with 3.2 than Alonso's with 3.8. The betting money thinks that Vettel/Red Bull is faster and more likely to make WDC than Alonso/Ferrari.

[raymondu999]

WB, I wonder if it would prove good to plot a graph of betting odds divided by current points in the standings... maybe that could shed some light on things... not sure what... but it could. Or maybe I just hadn't had enough coffee in the morning

[WhiteBlue]

In my view it doesn't make much sense. The chances are now heavily influenced by how many points are still available. This will increase by the race as we go down to 50 and 25 points. Button is practically out of the championship and Hamilton will soon be unless something drastic happens to the three leaders.