Brazilian GP 2010 - Interlagos

[godlameroso]

Massa is going to win, Alonso will be a few places down, and right behind Massa will be Hamilton

[djos]

I doubt it, Webber or Vettel will win this one as it is definately an RB6 circuit - I think RB will finally back Webber rather than risk giving Nando his 3rd wdc.

[rfs]

I doubt it, Webber or Vettel will win this one as it is definately an RB6 circuit - I think RB will finally back Webber rather than risk giving Nando his 3rd wdc.

Every track except Monza is a Red Bull track. But I wouldn't be surprised if Ferrari got a 1-2 here like in Hockenheim. And I'm not so sure Red Bull will back Webber, because he hasn't beaten Vettel in four races.

[raymondu999]

Judging by how this title battle has turned up, I'm guessing that Jenson will just slip through into the title race at Abu Dhabi, needing something like 24 or 23 points over the championship leader in Abu Dhabi to be champ. Having said that however he was quite good in Brazil 09 when his title hung in the balance. I'm guessing a 5-way title fight to Abu Dhabi.

I'm thinking that probably Alonso might get something happening to him this race. Again, I must make it clear that this is not something I desire, it's something I think will happen. Judging by his engine mileage and how this season has panned out, that is. Just some random speculation.

[djos]

Fact is RB need to support Webber and ensure he wins the next 2 races*, if Vettel Wins both Fernando wins the WDC.

*or wins one with Vettel 2nd and finishes 2nd to Vettel in the last race.

[raymondu999]

@djos, while your scenario would certainly be true if the order (for the next 2 races) is Vettel+Webber+Alonso, you're forgetting that ALonso might NOT get 3rd bboth times with a 1-2. If say Alonso only gets 4th in Brazil and 5th in Abu Dhabi, for some freakish reason (weirder things have happened this year) and Sebastian wins both, then Sebastian is champ no matter where Mark is.

You forget to factor in that if we get Vettel-Webber 1-2s (in that exact order) then Vettel would finish the season ahead of Mark.

[djos]

@raymondu999 the next 2 circuits are likely to suit Nando in his Ferrari far more so than they will Lewis in his MacMerc so you can just about guarantee Nando will be on the poduim for the next 2 races in at least 3rd position.

With the Points looking like this:

01 Fernando Alonso 231
02 Mark Webber 220
03 Lewis Hamilton 210
04 Sebastian Vettel 206

and 25 points for a win, 18 for 2nd & 15 for 3rd a Seb/Mark/Nando result for the last 2 races will look like this:

01 Fernando Alonso 261
02 Sebastian Vettel 256 (2nd on race wins count-back)
03 Mark Webber 256

If Webber wins Brazil (quite possible seeing as he dominated the whole weekend in 2009) with Seb and Nando in tow it will look like this:

01 Fernando Alonso 246
02 Mark Webber 245
03 Sebastian Vettel 228
04 Lewis Hamilton 222

RedBull would be stupid to allow Seb to win either of the last 2 races in both these scenarios imo! Nando would have to DNF a race for Seb to have a chance of winning the WDC (which possible with his engine situation).

[Mysticf1]

actually if the last 2 races are Vet/Web 1-2s they will be equal on points but more wins to Vet.

I think Redbull will support Webber if the circumstances fit...every permutation will be worked out before Brazil and the decision will be made at the last possible moment.

example...Vet/Web 1-2 with Alonso in 3rd, Vettel may be informed that Webber is faster

I do not deny being a Webber fanboi, nor deny desperately wanting him to clinch the title but objectively speaking Vettel's chances of winning the championship rely on events that may never happen...odds are that Redbull will once again lock out the front row in Brazil...Redbull need to decide how badly they want a WDC and if its acceptable for not Vettel to win it. I can understand the sticky situation they find themselves in, i wouldnt want to be the one asking Vettel to support his team mate.

[raymondu999]

We also said Red Bulls were guaranteed a 1-2 in Barcelona, Silverstone, Hungary, and that Alonso would probably take pole position in Monaco.

[Mysticf1]

certainly, as Murray Walker used to say almost every race, Formula 1 is IF spelt backwards...this is why Redbull's situation is so complicated when they want to allow Vettel the chance to fight right till the end.

[raymondu999]

there are big ifs both ways.. Mark's had quite a bit of luck in terms of reliability this year (NOT saying this is a bad thing... it's good for him to have such a change after his years of bad luck in the sport) The law of averages could well catch him out the last two races. IF.

Vettel could win the last two and Mark and Nando DNF the last two. IF.

Either way, those are huge ifs.

[djos]

actually if the last 2 races are Vet/Web 1-2s they will be equal on points but more wins to Vet.

I did mention that: "(2nd on race wins count-back)".

I think Redbull will support Webber if the circumstances fit...every permutation will be worked out before Brazil and the decision will be made at the last possible moment.

example...Vet/Web 1-2 with Alonso in 3rd, Vettel may be informed that Webber is faster

I do not deny being a Webber fanboi, nor deny desperately wanting him to clinch the title but objectively speaking Vettel's chances of winning the championship rely on events that may never happen...odds are that Redbull will once again lock out the front row in Brazil...Redbull need to decide how badly they want a WDC and if its acceptable for not Vettel to win it. I can understand the sticky situation they find themselves in, i wouldnt want to be the one asking Vettel to support his team mate.

Agreed on all points.

[ringo]

I'll support mark, Vettel is young, he can wait more years.
Alonso will swoop the WDC right from under them if they allow vettel to race with Mark.
Alonso is no fool and he's better than the redbull drivers put together, i wouldn't risk giving Vettel a chance when i can boost up Mark's points as far ahead of Alonso as I can.

If Alonso is running 3rd and the redbulls are leading, Vettel should step aside.
If Alonso is nowhere near the podium Vettel can challenge.

Trust me Vettel fans, it's unfair, but Vettel is 14 points adrift of Webber, that's 2 race win to 2nd place gaps. He has to equal those 2 gaps then some more to catch Alonso. Too risky.
If horner tells him he can race webber, then the 2 end up crashing out each other, then Alonso creeps up, redbull will look stupid.
Vettel is young, redbull winning the WDC and WCC is bigger and more important than his feelings, he can wait for next year.

[FW17]

Redbull will make their decision based on the Ferrari's position in the next race. If both Mclaren's are ahead of Alonso then there is no reason for Redbull to back one driver over the other.

[andartop]

Sorry to interrupt but as an average F1 fan who doesn't know sh!t and only believes what I'm told I am getting a bit confused now.

It seems the general opinion now is that it would be wise for Red Bull to use team orders with 2 races to go and Alonso first in the standings.

Suppose Ferrari had not used team orders in Germany and Massa managed to lead Alonso home. Alonso would now still lead with 224 points instead of 231 and Massa would still be even worse than Button, sitting at 150 points instead of 143.

Would it now be ok for Ferrari to use team orders?

Is it ok now to forget all about fairness since things are getting serious?