There is an official figure of a 35% fuel reduction in 2013 which is supposed to be achieved by the engine and a more efficient chassis with reduced drag. We have discussed the efficiency of the old engines and most people place them at 29-30%.
There is also semi official confirmation that the new engines will have in excess of 800 hp on a permanent basis including all recovery systems and that push to pass KERS will be abolished in favor of a duel torque system. If you consider all of this one can say that the 2011 and the 2013 power output including recovery would be very similar if not equal.
Based on those figures the fuel reduction would translate into a 12-13% improvement of the efficiency. Based on that thinking I would expect the engines to have an efficiency of 42% which isn't all bad for a reciprocating mobile power unit. IMO it would be a huge break through for F1 to make such a step and it would put F1 cars into the same league as some of the best commercial vehicles.
donskar wrote:The turbo 4 will certainly cost much more to design, build, develop, race, and maintain than continuing with the current engine or some formula based on the current engine. So the cost reduction mantra of F1 goes right out the window.
If someone in power really wanted to be "green" and economical, the FIA would impose a series of "stepped" fuel restrictions -- for example, 5% less fuel in 2013, another 5% less in 2014, etc. That would achive the PR goal and cost less.
A new design will always be an investment that will pay off over a number of years. For the new engines to pay off the manufacturers will have to agree to development cost restrictions as the chassis makers do. They have already principally agreed to do this in last year's Singapore meeting of the FOTA as reported by Martin Whitmarsh and other sources. By comparing the official fuel saving and efficiency targets with your proposal you will see that the old engines cannot even come near an efficiency that will be achieved by the new breed. So everybody can easily see why it would not make any sense to take that approach.
If you want to express that in milage you have to look at 180L of petrol for a 300 km race today which translates into 60L/100km (3.92 mpg). In 2013 this will go down to 39L/100km (6.03 mpg). This is not impressive by road car standards but it will at least start to approach what LMP1 cars do today. Mind you LMP1 will still be much better than F1 but F1 would not look quite so ridiculous.