I am really impressed by Scarbs' theory.
He brought the actual FIA load test into the picture, not just the wording of the deflection test, but rather how the loading is actually applied. He has either an intuitive or explicit understanding of free body diagrams and he applied this understanding to create the theory.
This is definitely a plausible concept for improving splitter-limited aero.
RB still seems to run their front wings lower than can be explained by their large rake.
Scarbs' theory matches the oddly long wear patterns seen on recent underbody pictures of the Red Bull splitters.
I think this is likely what RB is doing. Regardless, this is the most clever technical thing I've seen written about F1 in a while.