End of empires

[Richard]

I was prompted to start this thread by some comments in the MP4-27 thread about the end of the RB dominance.

viewtopic.php?p=292724#p292724

I am going to say it here first. The MP4-27 will be the car to beat in 2012. Button will become WC with one race to go.

Never count out McLaren!
Also Newey is a genius but he doesn't always get it right (think the McLaren MP4-19.
In fact if we look back to the late 90's Newey's cars won two championships in '98 and '99.
From there he had quite a long dry spell including one big failure (see above).
It also stands to reason that a team profiting the most under a set of rules has the most to lose should these rules change.
The battle between Hamilton and Button is going to be very interesting to see, if McLaren do have the quickest car next year.
I can't wait!

The big picture is that he wont get it wrong from now on. We can't look at the past and create some kind of cyclic trend. You have to look on the accumulation of knowledge over the years. He's at a point where he sees how a whole car needs to work to make it a fast as the regulations allow.

Newey knows all the ingredients to accomplish this and those ingredients will stand up to next year and beyond. He is more knowledgeable than anyone else and that is what sets him apart from them, not so much his creativity. He's not throwing spaghetti at the wall hoping that it sticks. He is designing the cars with indifference to tradition, style, convention, and any other biases that may hinder a design.
He's not a cake decorator like the others, drawing a car a certain way because it "looks fast", he's a mathematician more than a designer and that makes him very dangerous as Mclaren's competition.

If Newey is designing a whole car with level 10 sorcery, there is no way Mclaren can use entry level party tricks to design a mere wing and a nose and hope to beat him.
Worst of all in order to be at his level you will have to learn from his work.
How can you beat a man at the very thing he put into place?

Newey is the enlightened one, the others are pretenders. I don't see a dominant Mclaren next year. They can try to come within 2 tenths a lap and thats about it. I'd be happy for that at least.

But they need something really out of this world, and with the ever tightening regs, i don't really see that happening.

I have considered that as well, but if Adrian Newey is Faust, Harry Angel or Dorian Gray, then what?

[Richard]

Cyclic trends do happen and we ignore them at our peril (unless you're a banker bailed out by a tax payer). All empires come to an end and all bubbles burst.

Whilst I agree we can't predict when the cycle will end, we do know it will end at some point. So we need to see if there are any indicators of the end of the RB dominance. They are likely to be:

External influences

Regs changing to allow an outsider to jump to the top (ie Brawn). The most likely chance of this if Renault fail to match Ferrari and Mercedes in developing the new engine.

Or perhaps regs not changing to allow other teams longer to get to grips with the rules and catch up on RBs head start. I see McLaren and Ferrari having potential to use rule stability to catch up due to their profound ability at in-season development.

Internal influence

Largely related to personnel changes, the team isn’t showing any signs of falling apart. Also I doubt Vettel and Newey are allowed to go rallying or race motorbikes!

Another Newey

Assuming the previous factors fail to materialise, then the RB dominance will continue until a new Newey (an individual or collective) appears on the block and develops comparable skills. McLaren have the resources but don’t seem to be instigating much change to bring this about. Ferrari & Merc have recast their teams, so they have potential. However the next Newey is likely to be establishing a reputation in a mid field team at the moment, and will then be bought up by one of the big teams.


.....


So whilst there aren’t very strong signals about an end to the RB dominance, it takes a brave person to say it will never end. I’d wager 2014 being a likely time, that gives an upcoming team 2-3 years to develop a challenge to the RB capability, plus the change of engine will provide opportunity for Renault to drop back compared to Ferrari or Merc.

Having said all that, I do think it likely that RB will face tougher competition over the next 2 years as Ferrari and McLaren take advantage of rule stability to catch up and claw back some of RB’s lead.

Whatever happens, the cyclical trend will happen, the question is - when?

[xpensive]

Right, a new thread, good thinking richard. I think RBR's domination will continue as long as F1 is 90% aero-dependent and Newey is allowed to spend as much money as he wants, all in order to basically tailor Vettel a new car for each track.

My prediction is that it will end in 2014 though, new rules, while Renault never been able to build a decent turbo engine.

[beelsebob]

Right, a new thread, good thinking richard. I think RBR's domination will continue as long as F1 is 90% aero-dependent and Newey is allowed to spend as much money as he wants, all in order to basically tailor Vettel a new car for each track.

My prediction is that it will end in 2014 though, new rules, while Renault never been able to build a decent turbo engine.

Uhhh, renault were the ones who introduced turbos to F1, and were very successful with them.

[gridwalker]

Renault won races in the turbo era, though they never won the championship though.

However, this was over 20 years ago : technological change happens so fast that the 80s cannot be used as a yardstick.

As for whether Newey & Vettel would be allowed to rally, Newey was mildly injured in a Ginetta cup car earlier this year : http://en.espnf1.com/redbull/motorsport ... 25655.html

We have lived through seasons of extraordinary dominance before. Williams, Mclaren and Ferrari have risen and fallen as fortune ebbed and flowed, with the fans fewquently asking how anyone will ever topple the top dog, but it always happens.

Newey was a teenage hero of mine; I never got into Mansell-mania of 92, but I was deeply in love with his car ... I think the man is brilliant, but he is human and everyone makes misjudgements (if you think you won't, you are being complacent and that is the biggest misjudgement of them all).

Someone will rise to the challenge; Just think of what happened in 2005, bringing to an end the most tedious period of the sport's history ...

[Richard]

I see Renault/Lotus aim to be title winner in 2 or 3 years. So that means overhauling Ferrari, McLaren & Red Bull.

Team principal Eric Boullier said: "The plan is to be world champions in two or three years' time."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/formula ... 125169.stm

[dren]

That is always the plan. BMW, Honda, Mercedes, etc. With Boullier at the helm, I don't see it happening. If anyone beats the top three, it'll be Mercedes. I expect Ferrari and Mclaren to have much stronger seasons next year compared to Red Bull.

[JohnsonsEvilTwin]

The RB6 and 7 had concepts revolving around the exhaust.

How this will affect them will depend on a few things. We know the rb5 was the pick of non DDD runners in 2009, but not by much.
This car didn't run any fancy exhaust set up so far as I'm aware.
How much of the cars speed is down to it's attitude(rake) is a mystery.

I get the impression that red bull is more than a one trick pony. If the ebd is banned I think they will have 2 more ideas in the pipeline that will surprise. It may not always work... But when it comes down to ideas red bull seem to have plenty for whatever reason.

I just hope to see a closer top 4 battle, regardless of positions.

[dren]

I agree with that JET. The car was all around good. If you take away Vettel this year the RB7 doesn't look so dominating. I see a closer group of 3 in 2012 performance wise. Mercedes and Renault/Lotus may be in the mix as well.

[yener]

I remember McLaren lost more compared to the others when they districted the EBB.
So with the new regulation McLaren probaly loses more time (lap) then RBR.

Just like Eviltwin already said; It aint a trickypony.
The whole car is just damn good.

[scuderiafan]

Red Bull will continue to be strong. They have the perfect team. The Red Bull(drinks company) money keeps coming in, giving room for the best resources. I think that if Red Bull does start to slip up, it'll be in 2014. Ferrari and Merc will throw millions and millions at their engine development for 2014, and that will be enough to start to really topple Red Bull. Renault won't be able to keep up with Ferrari and Merc.

I find it odd talking about Red Bull as an "empire" as they've only really dominated F1 for a couple of years, but their rate of success is frightening.