Pup wrote:Scorpaguy wrote:If BE and Tavo orchestrated a fake "lets push Tavo out" tiff....leading Epstein to think, "Heck, I dont need Tavo with his zero dollar contribution, I'll negotiate with BE myself...I've got the cash".....then:
1. Tavo gets his race...with no outlay
2. BE gets his real cash....embellishes his nefarious rep/negot skills...and gets to stick it to the "Yanks" (which he really wanted to do since he had already secured his preferred NY skyline venue)
3. America gets its GP / F1 a new fan base
...I guess there are no losers sans Epstein. IF IT IS TRUE...an afterlife of fire and brimstone is nothing compared to Epstein's current plight of having to read/reread his checkbook balance.
Exactly. But I don't think Tavo really has to be involved. Just Bernie taking advantage of the situation to renegotiate the deal, and being willing to screw his "longtime friend" in the process. Of course, it would certainly help to have a friend in a position to default on the contract for you.
People can try to keep spinning this as Epstein screwing up Tavo's special-buddy deal with Bernie, but really - when have we known Bernie to offer a favor to anyone? If they'd take a step back and look at the personalities involved and who stood to benefit, I think they'd reach the same conclusion as you and me.
This is the strangest theory that I have read in a long time. The known facts make it completely clear that until the Korean GP (Oct. 16th) Hellmund and Ecclestone applied no active control over the process. This went on for three months. Epstein could have provided advance finance for the first race fee. Normally that would have been only for one months until the METF money would have been payed out. This would probably have cost just $100k. And even if the METF had been delayed as it is now it would have cost him perhaps $1.5m to put the 25m up for 13 months. Compared to a 300m price tag for the total investment this is pocket money. So why did Epstein refuse to finance the fee and failed to close the preferential deal thereby?
The only reasonable explanation that I see is greed on behalves of Epstein. Apparently he wasn't contractually obliged to pay. So he thought he could reach a modification to the internal contract between Hellmund and the investors. Most likely he was out for cutting Hellmund completely out of the contract. This is the sensible explanation. Until the middle of October Bernie and Hellmund did not take any action that degraded the business options. All of this changed around the Korean GP when Bernie started to talk about the problem of not getting payed and about a dispute between the Austin partners.
So how would have Hellmund and Ecclestone constructed a "trap" for Epstein? It sounds like pure fantasy to me. Both men must have been very surprised that such a small finance request was turned down by Epstein for several months. If there was any bait it probably was the apparent finance structure of the business. The original deal with FOM and the METF would not have required any finance to pay the race fee. The gap between later race fees and the METF money would have come out of the ticket sales of the previous years race. So most likely there was no provision for any finance by the investors in the contract between Hellmund and the investors. I guess this was the trigger that baited Epstein into renegotiating the contract instead of just providing the small finance volume without further demands.
Apparently Epstein completely underestimated the relationship between Ecclestone and Hellmund. He must have thought that Ecclestone would not care who he would be dealing with as long as he got his money. Epstein did not recognise that Bernie - as he usally does - already had his Plan B and C in place. He also missed to realize his own vulnerability. CotA already had invested some $40-50m into the circuit and that money would be a total loss if there would be no F1 contract. Bernie already had New Jersey lined up in he final stage of negotiations and was also looking at Mexico in case Austin went wrong.
With hindsight Epstein looks like a fool who completely misjudged his negotiation position. That became quite clear in November when Bernie published the New Jersey deal and tore up the Austin contract. Epstein suddenly had no BATNA (best alternative to negotiated agreement). Naturally the old rascal realized the fact and upped the ante. He issued a new contract without the finance package to CotA and made some public comments that scared Susan Comb the Texan who controlled the METF. Comb promptly withdrew her finance offer saying that it was linked to the original contract that was now torn up. She was busy covering her ass because the circuit opposition had criticised the plan to finance an F1 race with public money. She opted to pay only after the economic impact was completely proven.
So what can we conclude from this analysis? By the change of the race date Hellmund was forced to make a finance request to Epstein with a net cost of $100k - $1.5m. Epstein could have simply paid and demanded to be repaid later when Hellmund had made some money. But he elected a course that will now cost him and his fellow investors up to $80m over the course of the 10 year contract. This is a very costly error when you compare the figures. The main mistake was the hard nosed attitude towards Hellmund who was considered a friend by Ecclestone. When Epstein ran into his own trap of having no alternative Ecclestone retaliated with the same attitude. Take it or leave it. Epstein had to take it as we know.