are ferrari playing the long game ?

[lebesset]

long term followers of F1 would probably agree that it is rare for a radically new car , or even a car with radical updates , to be immediately succesful ; as McLaren keep demonstating ,if you are left behind at the beginning of the season it's all over for the championships even if you have caught up by seasons end

by their own admission , ferrari have made drastic changes in their 2012 car in an attempt to overtake the RBR/ McLaren dominance ; however , whereas in the past they always had greater resources than the other teams , this no longer pertains

so what to do ?

with the need to devote major resources to developing the 2014 car during the 2013 season ,I suspect that , despite all the statements about being disappointed , the ferrari strategy is to write off the 2012 season in developing a winning car car for 2013 while the other top teams are seeking the 2012 crown

seems to me that this could be a good example of lateral thinking ...they have now imported the talent to carry out such a programme , and simply trying to outdevelop the others in season no longer works ; providing the FIA doesn't come up with any major rule changes for 2013 such a strategy could be the winning one ...in 2013 alonso will still be there and massa will either be back on form or out the door.... no doubt ferrari will have a fair idea already of whom any replacement would be ...regretfully I don't think it will be kubica , it looks like it would take a miracle of lauda dimensions for him to return to F1

[aduka11]

My personal opinion.

Ferrari isn't a title contender team anymore...

They lost many valuable people and brought not quite good replacements...they have the money but no signs of skill in car development.

I think in last 2 seasons they did is their maximum they could archive with current logistic.

[raymondu999]

They wrote off 2009 sometime around Barcelona too - still came out only 2nd quickest

[Gerhard Berger]

They wrote off 2009 sometime around Barcelona too - still came out only 2nd quickest

Yep, with stable regulations, you don't really gain much of an advantage from switching focus to the following years car early. We've seen that with the F10 and W02, and we will probably see it again this year with the F2012.

I agree with the poster above - we lost some key people and it is hurting us.

[raymondu999]

Maybe they'd have a chance if they shifted focus to 2014 now though. They'd have a dominant car that would put the RB6 to shame

[lebesset]

Maybe they'd have a chance if they shifted focus to 2014 now though. They'd have a dominant car that would put the RB6 to shame

isn't that what they might be doing for both 2013 AND 2014 ?

previous attempts to leapfrog have been done by giving up mid season ...and this proves not to give sufficient advantage ; if they are doing it from pre-season instead they could end up with a fully developed car from the beginning of 2013 , allowing them to put emphasis into the 2014 car earlier than the other teams

of course , as previous stated , the strategy depends on no real rule changes for 2013

[lombers]

Last year's car wasn't so bad, but they were caught out by the exhaust blowing. You only need to look at Silverstone to see the relative performance difference when the restrictions on exhaust blowing were enforced for one race.

This year who knows. I think the one thing they have on their side is the ability to develop the car quickly over the course of the year. The key to this however is not to have a bad start to the season. They need to have a decent enough package to be either 2nd or 3rd best until their upgrades arrive. This also assumes their base car has a decent base to build on.

It's really too hard to predict any of this until we see times from Melbourne. On top of this it's highly likely that performance between different styles of tracks may well yield different results.

I believe that once they sort their initial teething problems out they will be strong this year. As mentioned above though it depends on how long this takes, they need to be competing for wins before the half way mark of the season or it's all over.

[Jimi_Hendrix_1967]

Last year's car wasn't so bad, but they were caught out by the exhaust blowing. Yover.

But theyve been getting caught out every damn year since Todt left now, dont they? And if the 150 was so good without ebd, why dont we see an evolution in the now banned ebd 2012 season?

Ferrari is a rudderless ship. No vision, no leadership. That they let Fry reshuffle an organisation that went through years of honing and then delivered championship after championship is a crime in itself.

They shouldnt have gone radical on the new car, but on the management, and get people with a history of leading racing teams to succes. Like with Todt, they could look for that in other racing series. The management of the Citroen rally team for instance. The current leadership at Ferrari is the big problem imo.

[aduka11]

One thing i will never get.

Montezemolo had always vision of Italian Ferrari, it's also why most of Golden-era personnel left.

Flavio Briatore...

To me he was a perfect candidate for Montezemolos view of future Ferrari..

Briatore always had policy of 1st and 2nd driver as Ferrari did in last decade...he is ruthless...i will say he was a good leader...he did good job both at Renault and Benetton (i will ignore the scandals)...he is quite charismatic, good for marketing...and most important he's Italian....a far far far far better choice than Domenicali.

But the thing what might be the problem, Flavio was a kind of guy that pays respect to no one...maybe thats the reason Montezemolo never got him.

On other had Montezemolo always wanted to have his hand in everything...he didnt needed a guy that will do things in his own way...he needed someone to blindly do everything that he demands...and i think that's where Domenicali stepped up...he's kinda too soft guy for his position and word "NO" is unknown in his vocabulary ...i don't want even to mention his leadership skills, he has no mental toughness..he's just obedient...and for Montezemolo that's enough.

[bhall]

The reshuffle started long before Pat Fry walked in the door. The team's seen an incremental, but steady shift in personnel ever since Schumacher "retired" and Brawn took a sabbatical. It had to happen, too. Nothing lasts forever, and the worst case scenario for Ferrari would have been the complete dissolution of the "dream team" without anyone being around to take their places.

I think the regulations are the source of Ferrari's toughest struggles. No team has been more adversely effected by the testing ban and the engine freeze than Ferrari. It was the case previously that if doing 1,000 laps a week around Fiorano couldn't accomplish the team's aerodynamic goals, they could always just introduce a new, better engine. Their quiver, so to speak, had many arrows.

Well, now it's effectively empty, and they appear to still be struggling with the adoption of "modern" F1 methodology. And I suppose that's to be expected. I've got to imagine that it's pretty damn difficult to overturn 50+ years of experience in favor of a completely new philosophy.

(I'm going to pretend that I didn't just see that whole bit about Flavio Briatore.)

[Websta]

We are looking at the result of Ferrari "playing the long game" last year. Maybe they should stop playing

[ESPImperium]

Ferrari have been in a slow decline since 2006. The championship in 2007 of Kimi was due to the residual linage being kept over from Jean Todt, 2008 with Massa was the start of it. Ferrari diverted about a couple weeks too early to 2009 and lost the championship that way, McLaren spent €10m in the last 3 weeks of the title gaining 2 new front wings specific for Brazil and China as well as a slightly altered rear wing. Mercedes also upped their efforts as well gaining an extra 7hp for Hamiltons last engine that season that did both events. All that was worth about .3 of a second in the dry. However in the wet, it was just pure luck, and Massa lost the draw that faitful evening in Interlagos.

In 2009 they came out with a F60 that was a nice car, but a dog of a car that they overhaulled with a B Spec chassis that was 12Kg lighter and they spent alot of resourse in the aero of that car. Massa was just about to lead the team right and propper, getting himself into a posistion that would have worried Alonso in 2010, however one freak accedent in Hungary in Quali put a hault to that.

In 2010 they had a decent year, overhauling the F60 and making it a very complient F10 design. The car was a good one, however it was one that needed development.

2011s 150 Italia was a car that was designed arround too many compromises, it was only when the EBDs were banned fore one race it showed its pace, but Alonso flattered it i feel as Massa was dicing with Hamilton more or less all race long.

Ferrari are missing doing an extra 10,000km a year in season testing, also the restriction on pre season and end season testing are also hurting as in 2008 they did 13,200km pre season and 3,300 post season testing. Now a team is lucky if they can 7,700 km testing all season.

Ferrari have always tested well, thats their Modus Operendi, Ferrari have lost about two thirds of their testing data, and this will show, as a result they now do a lot more distance in race weekends now that they once did, up to an extra 150Km to 200Km a event sometimes, however they still are down on data by about three fiths of what they once did in a season.

The engine freeze has hurt, but that has hurt all manufacturers as even Mercedes and Renault have said thet could produce a engine that was up to 20% more powerful than the one before each sseason. Instead they get arround 7% increase in power over a 12 month period, 3% comes just in the off season alone. This is down to the engine freeze.

One other area i attribute the Ferrari downfall to is their wind tunnel, it was 50% scale at one point, now its a 60% scale as to come into line with the other teams. I think they are having problems at a tunnel and CFD level. Not sure what, but i feel that they need a brand new tunnel, not a 50% tunnel adapted to 60% specs. However i also think that Ferrari cant wait for one to be built as they want success. If they right off another season, get a new tunnel built and corrolated properly i think they will be back for 2014, asuming they have the right personell.

Technichally they are sheep who go in their own way. Last year and this year they have got cars that look the same to a point as most of the others, however they have gone about it in different ways, last year they didnt go pull rod, whitch hurt them, now they have gone double pull rod. Whiotch brings into question the consistancy of handeling, most of the other teams this year have cars that are mechanichally simmilar to last, whitch creates a area of certanty to a point.

However the problem at management level lies with the top man, he i micro managing too much and should be backing off, thats what Dominicali is for. I think Di Montezemolo is wanting a Ferrari Italia not a Scuderia Ferrari win.

Ferrari are a team with too many problems, its a team in dissaray to a point. A team with inconsistancy and uncertanty.

[lebesset]

Ferrari have been in a slow decline since 2006. The championship in 2007 of Kimi was due to the residual linage being kept over from Jean Todt, 2008 with Massa was the start of it. Ferrari diverted about a couple weeks too early to 2009 and lost the championship that way, McLaren spent €10m in the last 3 weeks of the title gaining 2 new front wings specific for Brazil and China as well as a slightly altered rear wing. Mercedes also upped their efforts as well gaining an extra 7hp for Hamiltons last engine that season that did both events. All that was worth about .3 of a second in the dry. However in the wet, it was just pure luck, and Massa lost the draw that faitful evening in Interlagos.

In 2009 they came out with a F60 that was a nice car, but a dog of a car that they overhaulled with a B Spec chassis that was 12Kg lighter and they spent alot of resourse in the aero of that car. Massa was just about to lead the team right and propper, getting himself into a posistion that would have worried Alonso in 2010, however one freak accedent in Hungary in Quali put a hault to that.

In 2010 they had a decent year, overhauling the F60 and making it a very complient F10 design. The car was a good one, however it was one that needed development.

2011s 150 Italia was a car that was designed arround too many compromises, it was only when the EBDs were banned fore one race it showed its pace, but Alonso flattered it i feel as Massa was dicing with Hamilton more or less all race long.

Ferrari are missing doing an extra 10,000km a year in season testing, also the restriction on pre season and end season testing are also hurting as in 2008 they did 13,200km pre season and 3,300 post season testing. Now a team is lucky if they can 7,700 km testing all season.

Ferrari have always tested well, thats their Modus Operendi, Ferrari have lost about two thirds of their testing data, and this will show, as a result they now do a lot more distance in race weekends now that they once did, up to an extra 150Km to 200Km a event sometimes, however they still are down on data by about three fiths of what they once did in a season.

The engine freeze has hurt, but that has hurt all manufacturers as even Mercedes and Renault have said thet could produce a engine that was up to 20% more powerful than the one before each sseason. Instead they get arround 7% increase in power over a 12 month period, 3% comes just in the off season alone. This is down to the engine freeze.

One other area i attribute the Ferrari downfall to is their wind tunnel, it was 50% scale at one point, now its a 60% scale as to come into line with the other teams. I think they are having problems at a tunnel and CFD level. Not sure what, but i feel that they need a brand new tunnel, not a 50% tunnel adapted to 60% specs. However i also think that Ferrari cant wait for one to be built as they want success. If they right off another season, get a new tunnel built and corrolated properly i think they will be back for 2014, asuming they have the right personell.

Technichally they are sheep who go in their own way. Last year and this year they have got cars that look the same to a point as most of the others, however they have gone about it in different ways, last year they didnt go pull rod, whitch hurt them, now they have gone double pull rod. Whiotch brings into question the consistancy of handeling, most of the other teams this year have cars that are mechanichally simmilar to last, whitch creates a area of certanty to a point.

However the problem at management level lies with the top man, he i micro managing too much and should be backing off, thats what Dominicali is for. I think Di Montezemolo is wanting a Ferrari Italia not a Scuderia Ferrari win.

Ferrari are a team with too many problems, its a team in dissaray to a point. A team with inconsistancy and uncertanty.

I think most of that is fair comment ; for me , the crux of the matter is that everytime they try to turn the team into Ferrari Italia they go downhill ; when schu went there they anglicised the team and , after a development period , the crushing schumacher period emerged ; when schu retired italianisation commenced , and so did the decline

now they are reversing that trend , and one can hope for resurgence , but it is unlikely to happen overnight

anyone who [ like me] has worked long term for an italian company will know that politics rules ; on that basis ferrari should attempt to sign webber for next season , not that he is a political animal like alonso ; but whereas kimi might go for a --- , webber doesn't give one ..nothing they can hang over his head

[ESPImperium]

Pretty much who i think they will sign, and who i think should have been signed for 2012, Webber is a great driver for a base line, and a fast guy none the less. He still has that last few tenths.

My fear is that Ferrari will go into a late 80s and early 90s decline. And if they do, will the politicians in Maranello decide that F1 isnt where they want to be any longer.

Its been well publicised thar Di Montezemolo had the heart strings pulled at Le Mans in 2010 and reportedly went back to Maranello and put a team of 10 guys together to see about a posible LMP1 programme as LMP1 isnt as restrictive with regaurds to F1 rules.

To a point F1 needs to please Ferrari, but sometimes Ferrari lashes out and follows a wrong path. I think there is a way to please Ferrari, but i think there needs to be a consensual approach to how this is done. I think there is a way for Testing to return, but i also think that Ferrari needs to give a little in return.

But Ferrari need to sort their house out first before pointing fingers or naming names. They need to get used to the modren F1 medhodoligy and streamline a good bit. As at present they have too many staff, and a complicated management structure.

I think if Ferrari went to something close to the current 600 staffing limit and the modren ways, within 12 months they would threaten for a championship again.

[donskar]

What a thread! No, Ferrari will not give up on this season and develop a new car for the future:
1) That would be analogous to another company dropping its advertising program for a year. Battling for wins in F1 is a key part of Ferrari's business model.
2) Montezemolo's ego, Italian national pride, Ferrari's owner base, (and business reality) mandate that Ferrari go all out to win every year. They can not do less than 100%.
2) There is no reason to assume that Ferrari would be able to develop a winning car for the future -- especially if it is not fully engaged in racing as they do so. They would -- in a sense -- be developing in a vacuum.
3) As stated above, Fry did not break up a winning team. It broke up years ago. Change is prerequisite to growth and success in all things. The question is, are the new people the right people? Too soon to say.
4) An earlier poster hit it right on the head: past Ferrari success was based on using their most important resources -- Fiorano and Mugello -- to do real world testing and development. They lost the ability to use those resources. In addition, their reliance on real world testing led to a lower level of skill in the use of their wind tunnel. Finally, a Ferrari race car traditionally is a mount for the heart of a Ferrari, its engine. Changing rules have voided two of Ferrari's key weapons -- real world testing and engine development.

IMHO, the F2012 will be competitive this year and Ferrari will continue to be competitive in F1 as long as they choose to compete. Personally, I'd love to see Ferrari leave F1 for LMP. IMHO, the leaders for whom F1 is simply a money machine want F1 to become a spec formula.