F1 champ odds in 2012 - who will win?

[lebesset]

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I see. I've never bet on those things - I have one rule which I follow in investing and/or gambling - if I don't understand it; I don't do it.

quite right too
I earned my living for a couple of years by gambling in a couple of fields I understand...but it was too much like hard work
!
even worse , when I visit my nephew I am forced to watch X factor to help make the book on that

but the first rule should be ...don't gamble with what you can't afford to lose

[raymondu999]

In a way - if you're gambling in fields that you DO understand; it almost becomes a calculated investment - you're not collecting winnings; you're just exercising your options at a predetermined price.

That's how I personally see the whole thing anyways. Gambling to me is just another venue of investment for me.

[WhiteBlue]

In a way - if you're gambling in fields that you DO understand; it almost becomes a calculated investment ...

Interesting concept! But how comes subjective perception into it?

If you compare the probability of an Alonso WDC 2012 between F1technical posters (22%) and Internet punters (10%) you find that the F1technical bunch sees the Alonso probability twice as high as the average internet punter.

It would be interesting to see at the end of the year weather that is an objective intelligence advantage or simply wishful thinking.

[raymondu999]

I don't know about you folks - but I personally just bet on the most likely outcome. Of course my personal perception of each driver - and how well they can extract maximum points from their package - will affect that too. I personally find it somewhat pointless to bet based on wishes; and to bet on anything other than what will give me a return.

[banibhusan]

It would be interesting to see at the end of the year weather that is an objective intelligence advantage or simply wishful thinking.

Seems like its more of a case of wishful thinking than a carefully analyzed and calculated investment. We have a lot of Alonso and Ferrari fans here (I am one of them).

[lebesset]

I don't know about you folks - but I personally just bet on the most likely outcome. Of course my personal perception of each driver - and how well they can extract maximum points from their package - will affect that too. I personally find it somewhat pointless to bet based on wishes; and to bet on anything other than what will give me a return.

the big problem seems to be that you can't bet out of your comfort zone without distorting your judgement on the outcome ..emotion then comes into it ; so you need deep pockets to ensure you are only betting what you can afford to lose when hit by a bad run of results ...which you will be ; a good run of results can affect your judgement as much as a bad run

like I said ..hard work

[raymondu999]

Oh definitely. Betting really is just something I do for fun - and why not nab a bit of profit along the way? Never ever leave your financial security to chance. Why would you ever use gambling as a form of income? The only thing I would stretch myself out of my comfort zone for (in terms of paying for something) would be if it was an investment that would give me a further income stream.

My only pitfall is that really I can be a bit of a superstitious gambler. I took out a bet on Lewis Hamilton winning the 09 WDC back in December 08 - then I remembered I had just given my friend a lot of flak for supporting Button through 2008 - and I decided to hedge myself against karmic justice. Paid handsomely in that situation, mind you

[Roland Ehnström]

I sometimes place a small bet on the outcome I don't wish for, as a kind of insurance. For example, if I for some reason don't wish for Vettel to win a third championship (because that would be boring to watch), I place a bet on Vettel. So if he wins, I'm happy because I just made myself some money. And if he doesn't win, I'm happy because, well, I didn't really want him to win anyway.

[lebesset]

I sometimes place a small bet on the outcome I don't wish for, as a kind of insurance. For example, if I for some reason don't wish for Vettel to win a third championship (because that would be boring to watch), I place a bet on Vettel. So if he wins, I'm happy because I just made myself some money. And if he doesn't win, I'm happy because, well, I didn't really want him to win anyway.

maybe that's another type of each way bet

[WhiteBlue]

After the incredible qualifying this morning the betting market reacted immediately to the change in the top WDC and WCC positions.



Here are the data and the modified pie charts with the snap shots of today. Of the match odds particularly the Lotus match has reacted. My impression is that will change later on perhaps after the race for some other teams.



The WDC historic odds chart sees a big change in the order with Hamilton going on P1 displacing Vettel to P2. Alonso takes a big dive to five and Rosberg makes up a lot of ground.



In the WCC odds McLaren and Red Bull change the oder as do Ferrari and Mercedes. The spread between the five top teams has become much smaller. I'm not sure that the betting money is representing Lotus correctly here. My impression is that Lotus may do much better this year than P5 in constructors.

[horse]

This thread looks set to be an interesting one again this year WB.

[PlatinumZealot]

Damn should have put down some money on Mclaren and the two macca drivers!

[elmerfud]

Brawn Mercedes seems a safe bet.

[WhiteBlue]

This thread looks set to be an interesting one again this year WB.

Agreed! I also thought so. The spread has narrowed considerably over the teams and that is going to have an impact on the drivers. So we can discuss technical issues and their impact on top of the driver performance and position in the team. We might even get an open race of multiple candidates again for much of the season as we had in 2010. It could even go to the wire as in 2007 and most other years since then.

[raymondu999]

I think I'm placing money on Vettel and McLaren for the respective titles. Well I already had money on Vettel paying evens anyways - but I'm putting up more money now on him as he's now paying 2 to 1 on betfair; Paddy Power and Skybet.