TheRMVR wrote:So why are you on this forum then? Why not just look at betting odds all day?
Arn't we a wee bit condescending here? I use whatever methods of analysis and intelligence suits my current needs best. That can be rule making politics and vested interests, thermodynamic modelling, budget comparison or following the money trail. And for general trend expectations, team mate comparison I use a system where I compare points and odds which I record and observe over the season. It is not my fault that you prefer to only look at technical aspects. Let me do my thing and I leave you alone with yours.
Compare it to the free market. In theory there is something like 'perfect competition', where every consumer knows every price of every good and there are no switching costs or barriers for consumers. Such a place does not exist.
It's the same in betting. By treating the odds as truth, you falsely assume that every betting person knows everything about every team possibly available. Let alone they know every technical aspect of every part of the car. They know all about the facilities of all teams and even the state of mind of the drivers. Its rubbish.
The market theory may not be perfect but it is so far the only economic theory that works. Would you prefer a benevolent dictator who provides like a father for everyone or communism? No the market is the best indicator what the majority of people desire and so are odds if you want to know what a broad base of people expect to happen.
Some gamblers do actually take the technical side into account. But most of them act on gut feeling and previous results. Others use statistics of over 60 years of F1. And then there are the ones who just want to have some fun.
In the end it's not science, it's betting.
Sure that is also a small part. But in general people only risk their money if the expect to make it back.
Saying 'look the betting odds say Ferrari can't overcome this, so they won't' is ridiculous. I don't mind seeing betting odds before a race on this site to see what other people think. But using them as some sort of all knowing all-encompassing oracle to support an argument of yours is showing weakness in that very argument. Lets keep it technical, and leave the betting to the drunk, broke alchoholic who wishes for a better life and spends his life-savings on bwin.com.
You are making up a false argument. This has nothing to do with the points I made.
So on a technical note, what does Ferrari stop from improving in Spain?
Nothing stops Ferrari from improving in Spain. We would be quite dumb to think they were the only team that cannot improve. All teams are expected to improve. The question is how much they may compared to other teams. We may answer that by considering the fields of work they have and their propensity for solving such problems. The majority of the 2012 issues are tricky aerodynamic things like sealing the diffusor using exhaust gases and creating better balance by DDRS. As Pat Fry revealed most of Ferrari's methodology is faulty and needs changing in that particular field. So here public perception and team internal comment would suggest that Ferrari will not turn it around by that time.
Ferrari have a ton of money and they can always look at Sauber and copy that rear end but such a tactic would only enable them to reach what the competition had when they took the data. The competition would have moved on from there by the time the parts are on the car and the setup is optimized. So if your own ideas do not work and do not give you performance or are flawed by wrong methods how can you sucessfully compete? You have to sort out the underlying problems which will not work in three weeks.
I have offered you a bet how that perception would be expressed in betting odds. Perhaps we simply wait and see if my prediction becomes true or not. If I shall be wrong I have no objections for you to point that out.
In the meantime Domenicali made an announcement that sounds like Alonso has earned the right to select his team mate:
Felipe needs to accept, that he is facing a very strong teammate. If not, that hurts him. He needs to assume a clear role rather than trying to take advantage -- you need to learn from Fernando, not challenge him. That (challenging) is the way to being destroyed by a teammate such as Alonso or Schumacher, who are real cannibals. Ferrari has a moral obligation to champion Alonso. He (Alonso) has a central role in the team, and he therefore participates in the important issues.
