Malaysian GP 2012 - Sepang International Circuit

[Shrieker]

It's not the same thing with Sauber and Ferrari. It would be like Mercedes making McLaren yield for them. Never going to happen.

I'm sure we can name more than one driver who raced for Sauber and then went to Ferrari. Sauber aren't to Ferrari what Toro Rosso are to Red Bull, but close.

I find the McLaren&Mercedes example irrelevant since they're both top tier teams.

[Giblet]

But we also had a driver go from Sauber/Ferrari to Mclaren/Mercedes named Kimi The fact he went to Ferrari after that is a pretty loose connection. Ferrari have only signed one person who drove for Sauber, Massa. Perez is already part of the Ferrari driver program, and while rumors abound right now, he is hardly the sole candidate for a potential 2nd seat.

I find the McLaren&Mercedes example irrelevant since they're both top tier teams.

So because Sauber are not a top team, Peter Sauber, a self made man, is willing to be a lap dog because some big team has given him the privilege of their amazing engine and transmission?

He wants to be a top team as much as anyone else.

I respect your opinion, but as Ray mentioned there is not a lot of meat with these potatoes you are serving.

[SeijaKessen]

Peter Sauber is not Flavio Briatore...people are busy painting him like Flavio.

I wish Perez had won just because the claims that this was fixed is ridiculous and at least if he won, we wouldn't be hearing this.

I do believe a lot of underhanded stuff has happened over the years (1994 being pinnacle) but Sergio made a mistake. Sometimes I think we forget for as good as these drivers are, they do make mistakes out there at bad times. Look at Maldonado in Australia...he was pushing so hard he wound up crashing on the final lap. Any team is going to be mindful of their driver pushing too hard in unfavorable conditions especially with an incident like Maldonado still fresh in their minds.

Perez was driving the wheels off the Sauber...might have been one of the best drives I've seen from anyone in the last 2 years. The emotions from the Sauber team after Perez crossed the finish line...you can't act that way if there has been some sort of fix to keep your team in second.

[raymondu999]

I originally had a bunch of reasons why a conspiracy theory is ridiculous and doesnt make sense, which I got bored of and deleted.

What I kept that interested me was trying to understand the decision from the team wall. The armchair expected value doesnt really make sense:

Assume:
18 points was virtually guaranteed
25 points and a win was quite possible in a DRS car and hugely valuable,
but risking a no points finish

Also ignore outcomes P3-P10, since these are less-than-conservative goals, and Sauber's choice was ultimate-conservative. I'll address this later

Expected value comparison in units of points:
18*p(P2) > 25*p(P1)*c + 0*p(NOPOINTS),
where c is points multiplier of a win (greater than 1)

...
p(P1) would have to be at least 72% if you ignore any intangible "win bonus" value
p(P1) would only have to be 57.6% if you assume win bonus c = 1.25, 48% if c = 1.5, 36% if c = 2


So, even if you look at just the numbers, 72% is the base probability which changes your decision. If Sauber thought Perez could take the win more than 72% of the time, they should have radio'd to push. If Sauber thought that a win would add ANY value more the actual 25 points, then that probability drops FAST, and they even more should have pushed.

72% actually seems quite reasonable to me, given Perez's relative pace, primes, and every other pass made by others during the dry stage.

Obviously Sauber didnt think so, likely by gut check. So the combined experience of the Sauber wall thought that either:

- Perez had a LOWER chance of taking the win than 72% ,
- AND that a win bonus wouldnt make up for the low p(P1),
- AND/OR that p(P3-P10) made the numbers not worth it, especially given Williams doing well recently,
- AND/OR that a NO-POINTS finish was basically worth negative points.
- or that expected value is a worthless concept here, F1 is pure emotion or Sauber is a wizened survivor

So my question to you all is,
What do you think Perez's odds were (once his pace was evident)?
What is your estimate of the win bonus for Sauber, winless since BMW era?

=D>

Only at F1T

A blog by Will Buxton: http://willthef1journo.wordpress.com/20 ... cy-theory/

Worth a read IMO, and spot on on the marks.

Totally agreeing with Buxton. Perez is a races and he would have gone for the victory if it wasn't for the mistake. In the same time the team was thinking more logically considering all cost and benefits. So these conspiracies theories are just BS.

Agreed. I think Perez was still chasing and pushing hard, and made the mistake in Turn 14. Which consequently then spooked him (and well it should!) And so he thought it wasn't worth it.

[Maelstrom]

He pushes like HELL and when he catches Alonso, an engineer tells him (with a downbeat tone) that they need to keep the position and shortly after Perez has an offtrack excursion. What happened in between those 2 transmissions ?

He pushes like HELL, to catch 2xWDC and widely claimed one of the best current F1 drivers Alonso, in the final laps of a crazy race, where another 3 world champions have made costly mistakes, in his second full season in F1, being for the first time in his career and his Team's history on a podium position, and challenging for the win, burning out his front tires lap after lap, keeping in mind what happened to Maldonado last time around while he was chasing the same guy and crashed out of the race in the last freakin' lap throwing everything away, and shortly after his Team remind him on the radio to be cautious as they really need this 2nd place he has an off track excursion AND YOU STILL FIND THIS "FISHY"?????

+1

I totally agree. What people are forgetting is that its one thing to catch Alonso and quite another to pass him. Maldonaldo crashed just the race before trying just that and lost his team a huge chunk of points. Was Maldonaldo under orders too? Sauber probably remembered the incident and was reminding Perez to push but please don't crash.

[foxmulder_ms]

wow.. everyone keeps playing naive here.

If Hamilton, Button, Vettel, Webber, Schumacher, Rosberg, Raikkonen or any other driver with a different team were in a 2 seconds/lab faster car behind Alonso, Alonso whould have been smiling for his second place.

Perez was genuinely pushing for it. My problem is with his team. His team clearly told him not to push which is terrible for the sport. Shame, it is a huge shame, nothing else.

[bhall]

I'm reminded of Monza in 2009 when Hamilton crashed out - on a dry track - on the penultimate lap of the race while running in 3rd behind the Brawns of Barrichello and Button. That outcome proved that restraint is sometimes the most aggressive tactic. Points are points are points. (And so is a podium.)

Sauber and Perez made a wise choice. The only catcalls come from the peanut gallery from people who've never raced anything.

Nothing can be taken for granted.

[banibhusan]

wow.. everyone keeps playing naive here.

If Hamilton, Button, Vettel, Webber, Schumacher, Rosberg, Raikkonen or any other driver with a different team were in a 2 seconds/lab faster car behind Alonso, Alonso whould have been smiling for his second place.

Perez was genuinely pushing for it. My problem is with his team. His team clearly told him not to push which is terrible for the sport. Shame, it is a huge shame, nothing else.

Your argument would hold true if we were to follow Bernie's method of medal system. Either you win or you lose. But here we have point system and 18 points in a single race is a dream for any mid field team.

Remember Vettel's 2007 Fuji race mistake? No mid-field team would want such a thing. That's why they always tell their drivers to push, but be very careful not to blow it. And Perez nearly did.

[Abarth]

Regarding his engineer pushing him, and after some more laps, telling him to be cautious...
What about a more cool Peter Sauber, Beat Zehnder or whoever is allowed within the team to give his engineer new directions, not because they came from Ferrari but because they feared that Perez would maybe take too much risks?

[mx_tifoso]

He was still pushing like mad. I think the Sky Sports guys said he was still taking huge chunks out of Alonso's lead even after his mistake.

Yes IIRC he still was, and perhaps even at the same rate as before his mistake.

But I do wish his engineer hadn't said anything about being careful, because by doing so I feel like he jinxed him. It should have been a simple yet positive message, something along the lines of "You're doing a great job, taking a second out per lap, etc."



On a personal note, I was very fortunate to be in Mexico for this GP and watch Perez take 2nd while almost going for the win. Seeing our flag on the podium made us teary eyed!

[captainmorgan]

I'm reminded of Monza in 2009 when Hamilton crashed out - on a dry track - on the penultimate lap of the race while running in 3rd behind the Brawns of Barrichello and Button. That outcome proved that restraint is sometimes the most aggressive tactic. Points are points are points. (And so is a podium.)

Sauber and Perez made a wise choice. The only catcalls come from the peanut gallery from people who've never raced anything.

Nothing can be taken for granted.

Other than the *jibe* about catcalls (first known use ca. 1693) and peanut galleries (vaudeville-era in origin), yessssssss, points are indeed points. Sauber made a call that was clearly theirs to make. Sure, discretion being the better part of valor. But how much of an advantage does one need before "a real racer" would change his mind? At what point do you stop minimizing risk? Otherwise you're arguing that Vettel should never have pushed past 2nd in 2011.

The whole reason the 2010 point system was changed was because of this exact situation. I remember actually taking the opposite perspective before then. Sure, discretion might be the right choice later this season between the top 3 drivers. But its definitely NOT clear cut here. Not with a 0.5-1.0s per lap advantage, better tires with more laps behind them, better aero, a winless team, DRS on a 1KM straight, and 10+ laps to go.

My point is, discretion is fine, but it is not absolute.

[bhall]

Other than the *jibe* about catcalls (first known use ca. 1693) and peanut galleries (vaudeville-era in origin) [...]

?????????

[captainmorgan]

Just pointing out dated references. Veiled insults are always fair game.

Speaking of which, racers, even teams make bad decisions all the time. Just because they make decisions doesnt make them infallible or exempt from scrutiny. And it wasnt only half of the posters in this thread who were questioning the call, most of the commentators (some of whom include drivers) I was listening to brought up some of the same points. So it wasnt a matter of retrospect either

[bhall]

That first bit sets a new standard for pointlessness on this forum. Congrats.

As for the latter, fewer groups are more capable of stirring up controversy than F1 journalists. Ratings are ratings, and sensationalism sells.

Regardless, it's easy for those watching at home to say what Sauber should or should not do. They don't have to worry about the prize money associated with the standings at the end of the year.

But, what's a few million between friends, right?

[Maelstrom]

Earlier antics of Ferrari is coming back to bite them on the ass. Even if it was a clean race there will always be detractors who say it was fixed.

Peter Sauber made a statement that it wasn't fixed - "Oh ofcourse he'll say that or big bad prancing horse won't supply engines."

Segio looked happy with his performance and didn't show signs of resentment of being denied a race win by team orders - "He's a good actor and wants an eventual Ferrari seat."

Ferrari might as well not say anything as they are Ferrari and will obviously lie.

The fact that Perez could have found safer ways to throw the race instead of almost going off into the gravel is just waved off. He had to make it belivable you see or else there would have been an investigation.

In short there is no proof that can prove to people that it wasn't fixed. It's pointless.

All we need now is Ferrari to replace Massa with Perez in the near future as speculated. That will be taken as absolute proof that the race was thrown by him.

All in all its very amusing. But I sense Ferrari and Alonso are not very amused. Poor Alonso drove a great race in a crap car only for people to say its fixed. What about all of those laps where he was setting constant fastest laps and pulling away from the field in a car thats as slow as the midfielders?