So after 4 races and 5 quali we can begin to make a point on this year Pirelli tires.
2011 tires difference gap between compounds (hard, medium, soft, supersofts) was larger and tires were blistering. Said that, they were an excellent indicator on how good the car was, if you bolt more downforce to the car then you surely got faster lap times. More regular races
2012 tires have less gap between compounds and are less blistering, so they let you to do a greater range of strategies during the race. This let to 4 different winners in 4 races.
Said that, it's a bit a random thing to say who will get pole or win the race as a car with less downforce that hits the 'sweet spot' is faster than a car with more downforce that miss it.
I'd go on 2011 ones.