beelsebob wrote:No, the reason it works for the RBR is because what they lose in the last 1/3 of the straight, they gain in the first 1/3 of the straight – remember, they're the *fastest* team through the final sector, which has absolutely 0 to do with downforce, despite having the lowest speed trap speeds.
Totally right. Red Bull were gambling that they can get in front and stay in front, and with their better tyre life they hedged that bet by being able to one stop if they do get caught out of position. In clear air they'll have a big advantage from that gearing, but if they get caught up behind someone they could struggle to get past - the acceleration will still help but their Vmax may not allow them to get passed before the chicane.
Two things may save this race (at least at the front) - Alonso getting his usual fast start and taking the lead into the first turn; or Hamilton going aggressive with the tyres and either forcing the others to follow or closing them down in the final laps.