What if Santander falls?

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munudeges
munudeges
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Joined: 10 Jun 2011, 17:08

Re: What if Santander falls?

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People are utterly failing to grasp the global nature of this problem. Every single bank around the world is leveraged up to its eyeballs and the elephant in the room is that banks have basically nothing on their balance sheets. They've done an Enron and valued worthless assets at so many billions, put them on their balance sheets and then rehypothecated them several times. Talking about tangible equity versus total assets is a waste of time because they've been show to be a bit of a big fat lie. Santander's rise has been inextricably linked to the over expansion of the Spanish economy and like banks like RBS they've thrown money they don't really have around in takeovers such as that of Abbey. The thorny issue of credit default swaps and what has actually funded building in Spain rears its head because it is impossible to know who has been exposed to what until it all kicks off. 2008 taught us that, if nothing else, and what has improved since 2008? Absolutely nothing.

It's also quite clear that they're offering somewhat more attractive rates to British savers so they can use it to bolster the balance sheets of Santander as a whole. The Icelandic banks did exactly the same thing and it was a big fat warning as to what was to come because they were doing it to desperately bolster their balance sheets. That is not a 'well capitalised' bank, which frankly is a silly thing to say in the current climate. The notion they are 'firewalling' anything is utterly laughable. Like I said, this is a cancer that will just spread.

As for what effect it will have on Ferrari, well, they are effectively their title sponsor and there really is no one else on the horizon. That's not the case for McLaren.

munudeges
munudeges
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Joined: 10 Jun 2011, 17:08

Re: What if Santander falls?

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xpensive wrote:Spain has asked for 100 GEUR in emergency loans as we speak, can Santander possibly be outside of this?
Not a chance. Everything is interconnected within the financial system and you notice they are saying nothing about who is getting the European printed cash.
And just to be on topic, could this affect Ferrari's long term planning?
It will be a 'concern'. Right now there is not much they can do about it, but finding backup sponsorship is going to have to be a priority because when the problems start they will happen faster than anyone thinks possible.

Richard
Richard
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Joined: 15 Apr 2009, 14:41
Location: UK

Re: What if Santander falls?

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Santander are unlikely to go bust like Lehman, but I can't see them renewing their F1 sponsorship contracts.

If there is less corporate money sloshing around F1 then the sport will have to cut non-core activities and also look for other sources of revenue. Fans who have enjoyed the largesse of free TV paid by corporate cash seeking large audiences will have to start paying. I suspect that's why the teams see more value in Sky's 800k viewers paying a fee instead of selling advertising space for 4m on free TV.

Circuits advertising is run by FOM, so the circuits would not be directly effected by less sponsorship. However, they'd probably see a drop in corporate hospitality, fans would be less willing to pay high ticket prices, and taxpayers unwilling to pay subsidies. They'd either have to pay Bernie less cash, or stop holding races. Hopefully Valencia will disappear of the calendar, but it also means the perennial threats to traditional circuits such as Spa, Montreal or Melbourne may become reality.

As for teams, I suspect the big 3 or 4 will manage to balance the books (albeit smaller total budget) but the mid-field will struggle to find sponsors as easily as they did 5 years ago - Williams is a good example of that.

Overall we're going to see a deflation of the F1 bubble. Some of it wouldn't bother me such as less corporate razzmatazz, but there will be other things that will hit fans such as less free TV.

Trocola
Trocola
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Joined: 25 Jan 2012, 19:22
Location: Madrid, Spain

Re: What if Santander falls?

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Santander is not in trouble. The main Spanish problem comes from the "cajas" (public banks). Santander and BBVA are fine. They may need some money, but they are not in trouble


Trocola

xpensive
xpensive
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Joined: 22 Nov 2008, 18:06
Location: Somewhere in Scandinavia

Re: What if Santander falls?

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Trocola wrote: ...
They may need some money, but they are not in trouble

Trocola
That's most reassuring.
"I spent most of my money on wine and women...I wasted the rest"

Richard
Richard
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Joined: 15 Apr 2009, 14:41
Location: UK

Re: What if Santander falls?

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€100bn is rather a lot of money needed in the banking system, it's roughly 10% of Spain's GDP. No one in Spain can be immune to a hole of that size, the ripples will spread out far and wide.

It is curious that Santander extended the Ferrari contract this Feb. I wonder if the contract was a bit cheaper this time?
Our sponsorship with Ferrari is the best marketing operation in the 150 year history of the bank.
http://www.formulasantander.com/season- ... s-until-20

xpensive
xpensive
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Joined: 22 Nov 2008, 18:06
Location: Somewhere in Scandinavia

Re: What if Santander falls?

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richard_leeds wrote: ...
Our sponsorship with Ferrari is the best marketing operation in the 150 year history of the bank.
...
What it really says;
"Our sponsorship with Ferrari has given our board-members and directors more tush than ever in the previous150 years"

I don't know anyone, professionally or privately, who would choose his bank from a formula one result?

Cell-phone operator, gasoline and razors perhaps, but not a bank, that's business.
"I spent most of my money on wine and women...I wasted the rest"

munudeges
munudeges
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Joined: 10 Jun 2011, 17:08

Re: What if Santander falls?

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Trocola wrote:Santander is not in trouble.
Everybody is in trouble.

Richard
Richard
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Joined: 15 Apr 2009, 14:41
Location: UK

Re: What if Santander falls?

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xpensive wrote:I don't know anyone, professionally or privately, who would choose his bank from a formula one result?

Cell-phone operator, gasoline and razors perhaps, but not a bank, that's business.
Same could be said for all sports sponsorship, it's irrational. Why buy a razor because someone was paid to wear their logo?

The exception is for equipment that the person uses in their work, ie the same clubs that Lee Westwood uses, or keyboards used by ABBA.

xpensive
xpensive
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Joined: 22 Nov 2008, 18:06
Location: Somewhere in Scandinavia

Re: What if Santander falls?

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richard_leeds wrote: ...
Why buy a razor because someone was paid to wear their logo?
...
I do. I also switched to Camel when Nelson moved to Lotus in 1988, but I never bothered to figure out what "BNP" was
when Mats Wilander or Stefan Edberg won at Roland Garros, had I known it was a bank I couldn't have cared less.
"I spent most of my money on wine and women...I wasted the rest"

Miguel
Miguel
2
Joined: 17 Apr 2008, 11:36
Location: San Sebastian (Spain)

Re: What if Santander falls?

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xpensive wrote:Spain has asked for 100 GEUR in emergency loans as we speak, can Santander possibly be outside of this?

And just to be on topic, could this affect Ferrari's long term planning?
Both Santander and BBVA are, AFAIK, out of this loan. The main reason being them acting as normal commecial banks, which means most people didn't get mortgages with them. It is not unlikely the third largest spanish "bank", La Caixa, will have to resort to this fund, as is the case of previously unaided banks (Kutxabank, Popular, Banest and Bankinter).

I'm personally depressed and angry with all this story. First, the bank that seems the culprit of all this, Bankia, is nothing but an aggregate of savings banks, that were forced to play by the rules of commercial banks after showing miserable management under savings banks rules (considerably more favourable in Spain). I'm not paying taxes in Spain anymore, but it irks me that my family's taxes will be spent not in healthcare, education or infrastructure, but in grossing the benefits of the same motherlovers whose management enhanced the current crisis.
I am not amazed by F1 cars in Monaco. I want to see them driving in the A8 highway: Variable radius corners, negative banking, and extreme narrowings that Tilke has never dreamed off. Oh, yes, and "beautiful" weather tops it all.

"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." Niels Bohr

bhall
bhall
244
Joined: 28 Feb 2006, 21:26

Re: What if Santander falls?

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Miguel wrote:[...] it irks me that my family's taxes will be spent not in healthcare, education or infrastructure, but in grossing the benefits of the same motherlovers whose management enhanced the current crisis.
Welcome to the new economy.

Privatize gains. Socialize losses. Repeat as necessary.

Miguel
Miguel
2
Joined: 17 Apr 2008, 11:36
Location: San Sebastian (Spain)

Re: What if Santander falls?

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bhallg2k wrote:
Miguel wrote:[...] it irks me that my family's taxes will be spent not in healthcare, education or infrastructure, but in grossing the benefits of the same motherlovers whose management enhanced the current crisis.
Welcome to the new economy.

Privatize gains. Socialize losses. Repeat as necessary.
Isnt't it telling that econimists, politicians and its like are fearmongering the greeks for their own elections?
I am not amazed by F1 cars in Monaco. I want to see them driving in the A8 highway: Variable radius corners, negative banking, and extreme narrowings that Tilke has never dreamed off. Oh, yes, and "beautiful" weather tops it all.

"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." Niels Bohr

Richard
Richard
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Joined: 15 Apr 2009, 14:41
Location: UK

Re: What if Santander falls?

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bhallg2k wrote:
Miguel wrote:[...] it irks me that my family's taxes will be spent not in healthcare, education or infrastructure, but in grossing the benefits of the same motherlovers whose management enhanced the current crisis.
Welcome to the new economy.

Privatize gains. Socialize losses. Repeat as necessary.
Nothing new about that. It's what caused the Scots to final capitulate to the English in 1707. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acts_of_Un ... erspective

I gather it was also the cause of tea party in Boston in 1773 and the eventual loss of America from the empire.

Or how about Luther's refusal to fund the papacy in Rome in 1517? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_Lut ... eformation

bhall
bhall
244
Joined: 28 Feb 2006, 21:26

Re: What if Santander falls?

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I really shouldn't even get started when it comes to the world's recent banking debacles. My opinions on the subject involve quite a bit of depraved violence and references to a financial holocaust. (It is what it is.)

EDIT: Richard, I know it's not exactly a new phenomenon, but the scale scale in which that philosophy is employed and somehow considered totally acceptable is mind boggling. It's not limited to banks, either. Corporate responsibility is extinct.