2012 Japanese GP - Suzuka

[raymondu999]

I personally love showdowns. I like it when only 2 people are in contention (realistically, and very close to mathematically).

I know this year has been very wide open so far, with so many contenders and seeming pseudo-contenders (remember when Rosberg was the highest points scorer of the field in the spread of races from China - Monaco?) but somehow I think 2012 has an epic showdown as the climax for us.

As raymond pointed out, the lateral stresses will eat tires, perhaps favoring Button Vettel and Alonso as top three team favorites.

Yep - just look back at last year. Hamilton and Vettel pushed early on, and were just eating their tyres alive. Button was giving 8 tenths a lap away for the first 7 or 8 laps, before then reeling in his two competitors at the front by something like 1.2s a lap.

Strategy predictions anyone?

I'm thinking we'll see a spread between OOPP and OPPP. I don't think anyone can get away with a two-stopper, but then again I said the same thing about Silverstone...

[beelsebob]

I personally love showdowns. I like it when only 2 people are in contention (realistically, and very close to mathematically).

I would be interested in who you think is still in the showdown tbh.

I don't think Vettel can win because there's only one more track (Abu Dhabi) which will even vaguely suit his car.
I don't think Raikonnen can win because the car is almost good enough to beat {McLaren|Ferrari|RedBull} on any given day, but not quite.
I don't think Hamilton can win because at this point he needs 1st and Alonso 3rd at most races, which seems unlikely.

To me, this championship is already Alonso's bar car failure.

[RB7ate9]

To me, this championship is already Alonso's bar car failure.

I wouldn't begrudge him the WDC either. Fast when he needs to be; other times smart when necessary.

Considering the issue with the track, Singapore, like Monaco and Valenica, are poor indicators of larger car pace. With that in mind, the season may come down to Hamilton and Alonso, as Mclaren has the advantage in the majority of the tracks (particularly the power advantage on the long straights of Korea, India, and Austin at least).

Aside: I really hope a massive wrench in all of our predictions is thrown and Sauber tosses a ton of updates to lock out the front row and podium to get Koby his first win!

[beelsebob]

To me, this championship is already Alonso's bar car failure.

I wouldn't begrudge him the WDC either. Fast when he needs to be; other times smart when necessary.

I would rather it hadn't been quite so gifted to him – with rather more even Missfortune we would be looking at Hamilton anywhere between where Vettel is to 25 points ahead of Alonso, and a much tighter fight to the line. That said, Alonso did a stunning job in the early season to put in consistent results in a --- car.

Considering the issue with the track, Singapore, like Monaco and Valenica, are poor indicators of larger car pace.

Indeed, all our other indicators say McLaren and Ferrari will run away with the other tracks.

With that in mind, the season may come down to Hamilton and Alonso, as Mclaren has the advantage in the majority of the tracks (particularly the power advantage on the long straights of Korea, India, and Austin at least).

Agreed, but then Hamilton has fewer fresh engines left, and needs to consistently win, and see Alonso 3rd. That doesn't sound too likely.

Aside: I really hope a massive wrench in all of our predictions is thrown and Sauber tosses a ton of updates to lock out the front row and podium to get Koby his first win!

That would be pretty cool – I'd like to see them get up to 2nd/3rd with both cars before that though – a single 1. HAM 2. KOB 3. PER 4. BUT 5. MAL 6. RAI 7. ALO result would get hamilton back in the fight for the championship for real.

[raymondu999]

I personally love showdowns. I like it when only 2 people are in contention (realistically, and very close to mathematically).

I would be interested in who you think is still in the showdown tbh.

I don't think it's a showdown at the moment - I think (just a hunch rather than educated guess) that things will boil down to a showdown, or 3 contenders tops. I think the race will go down to the wire despite the current points situation. Again - just a hunch and not an educated guess.

[aero expert 807]

I think Alonso will win it.While the nearest challenger varies on a weekly basis he's up there consistently scoring.
That said Vettel is the only realistic challenger after Singapore.

[raymondu999]

I know what you mean, but, quoted from Astracrazy:

Going into the summer break it looked like this (pts)

Mark Webber -40
Sebastian Vettel -42
Lewis Hamilton -47
Kimi Raikkonen -48

now:
Vettel -29
Kimi -45
Lewis -52
Webber -62

Vettel has been stealthily making gains on the equally stealthy Alonso.

I've said since the start of the year - I don't think Alonso's consistency will be enough to cut it. He also needs the others to be more inconsistent than they are now.

[turbof1]

On the other hand: Vettel made up 13 points in 3 races. At that rate he will not beat Alonso.

[FrukostScones]

So who will win the Suzuka GP?

Verharempilmaat

[raymondu999]

What's Verharempilmaat?

Metinks Button or Vettel will take this one. (though it doesn't necessarily mean that they will occupy the top two spots)

[FrukostScones]

What's Verharempilmaat?

Metinks Button or Vettel will take this one. (though it doesn't necessarily mean that they will occupy the top two spots)

5 guys in one word.

[beardRage]

I think we'll see OPPP or OPPO. Top 5 may be Ham, Vet, But, Alo, Rai. Webber and Perez fighting for 6th? I hope we finally see the device in action.

[MikeFromCanada]

I would go as far as to say this is a "must-win" if there ever was one for Red Bull.

Even though Lewis is futher back from Alonso's point gap, as has been mentioned above the remaining tracks on the schedule would seem to favour the McLaren package moreso than the RB. Abu Dhabi is an exception which requries excellent low speed traction, and Austin is of course an unknown at this stage in the game. While we know the layout, we have absolutely no idea on the grip levels and abrasiveness of the track itself.

Back to my original point, I would not be surprised to see come Brazil a 1 on 1 showdown between Alonso and Lewis for the title. I think a strong but JUST not strong enough Lotus will push the Ferrari off the podium at a few of the upcoming races, opening the door for someone to string a few solid results higher than Alonso.

[PlatinumZealot]

My Prediction is that redBull is a non-factor in this race. It will be all about Mclaren and Williams (Pastor at least). Then you will see the Lotuses and then the Bulls. RedBull will struggle here. I have my reasons for saying this but I won't say why until FP3... Hint: the tyres..

[turbof1]

My Prediction is that redBull is a non-factor in this race. It will be all about Mclaren and Williams (Pastor at least). Then you will see the Lotuses and then the Bulls. RedBull will struggle here. I have my reasons for saying this but I won't say why until FP3... Hint: the tyres..

Didn't you forgot Ferrari somewhere inbetween? I hope not and I hope you are right; that would mean Hamilton would claw back around 20 points on Alonso :p. Far too optimistic.