The entire sequence of events seems to suggest more number of losers that winners. Hamilton's stated dream of multiple WDCs looks certainly more difficult in the immediate future. Even if we were to ignore the BAT, BAR and Honda era, based on the the developments from BGP-001 to W03, there is no evidence to suggest that Mercedes will produce a title contender next year. Hamilton is not known for his patience or diplomacy when things do not go exactly his way. While there is an opportunity to build a team, Hamilton has so far not demonstrated any such leadership capabilities. In fact, despite his shorter tenure at McLaren, Button seems to have endeared himself more to the whole team more than Hamilton, who was a McLaren protege. So, even to start with, this move doesnt seem to be a match made in heaven. However, if we were to ignore the public statements for a moment; if Hamilton's leanings are indeed towards a higher salary, more freedom for personal advertising, the satisfaction of having his picture next to Mercedes' next S whatever it is, revenue share from sale of Mercedes racing gear and caps, and going to sleep hugging the original driver's trophies he is likely to win at Mercedes, however few, or rare that possibility might be, then this is a good move.
I am not sure that Mercedes as a racing team has gained anything either. Forget about Hamilton "being the last missing piece in Brawn's jigsaw", he would be of help only if the weakness of the team was in the drivers' department. While Schumacher may have had a mixed season, be it due to mistakes or luck, the overall dismal performance of the team has nothing to do with either Rosberg or Schumacher. The less said about Mercedes' organisational capabilities, the better.
McLaren seems to have lost out as well; neither Jenson nor Perez seems to have the raw pace of Hamilton. Unless McLaren's cars would be clearly dominant, I cannot see either of them taking a title fight to Alonso or Vettel. McLaren has produced its share of average cars or complete lemons since 2000, and Button cannot, and Perez doesnt seem to have the ability to wring out that extra pace from a slightly sub-par car in the way Alonso and Hamilton seem to be capable of. In this light, McLaren's decision to not at least match Hamilton's current salary is questionable absent absent commercial difficulties. I am ambivalent about retention of original trophies, though I can imagine an organisation like McLaren being uptight about it. But it is difficult to comprehend that this was a deal breaker for Hamilton - especially when the likes of Senna and Prost had agreed to retain replicas.
As for Perez and Button, if either of them completely dominates the other, the loser will be surely relegated to a midfield team or even the grid's end when their contract expires - the loss of credibility is markedly different when being whitewashed by an Alonso or a Hamilton vs. being whitewashed by a Button or Perez. If either of them indeed dominates the other, that doesnt make him a star either considering both havent been trailblazers so far in their careers. Only WDCs or being extremely consistent challengers to WDCs would be recognition enough. In this regard, both their futures seem to be heavily dependent on McLaren producing clearly dominating cars. A WDC in a dominant car can undoubtedly mask otherwise debatable ability (like JV at Williams or Button himself at Brawn). Having said that, Perez couldnt have asked for more at this point in his career.
Michael Schumacher - During the first leg of his career, I had admired him for his achievements and loathed him for all the reasons he is notorious for. But surely, this is not a pleasant way to end a comeback.
The sure shot winner in this saga seems to be XIX. One can be certain that their compensation under the management contracts is linked to their driver's compensation package; harder to imagine this being linked to their driver's chances at WDC (though, admittedly, there is a long-term indirect impact). So, unlikely that XIX cares about the number of WDCs Hamilton is likely to win at Mercedes, but surely is concerned about a possible pay cut for Hamilton at McLaren. Anthony Hamilton would surely have evaluated this move much longer, if not have advised Hamilton to remain at McLaren.
The other clear winners seem to be Brawn and Haug. A related development is Lauda's rumoured return to F1 management, at Mercedes. Well, the last time he was at Jaguar, he didnt set anything on fire with his managerial abilities. With the Hamilton move, which would complete Brawn's otherwise incomplete jigsaw (
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) plus Lauda as another new messiah, plus the media attention (and possible outrage) over Schumacher's sacking, what this really looks like is that yet again, Brawn and Haug seem to have managed to divert attention away from the real issues plaguing Mercedes. Now that this will be the hot topic, people are less likely to notice that the latest raft of 'big' updates for Singapore from the combined might of Costa, Willis, et al, has not taken the team any further up the grid. Sheer brilliance from the part of Brawn and Haug, any which way one would look at it.