2012 Abu Dhabi GP - Yas Marina

[Phil]

I think a net loss of about 16 seconds could be for a normal pit stop; a rough guess.

After looking at the lap timesheet, initially I thought 16 seconds might be pretty accurate actually - after a closer inspection though, I think it's closer to 18-19 seconds.

Alonso's lap time suggest this:

Lap 27 1:47.661
Lap 28 1:50.021 P (+ 2.4s)
Lap 29 2:06.690 (+ 16.6s)
Lap 30 1:47.525


Kimi's lap times:

Lap 30 1:47.621
Lap 31 1:49.410 P (+ 1.8s)
Lap 32 2:06.245 (+ 16.8s)
Lap 33 1:46.055

When looking at drivers who did not pit during the safety-car, the figures seem roughly the same. The lap preceeding the pit-stop is around 2 seconds slower and then the following lap another 16+ seconds. I suspect that's because the pit-stop is along the straight, so it affects two laps effectively. If you add those two together, you are in fact closer to 18-19 seconds.

Regardless if it's 16 or 19 seconds though - it doesn't really change my prior argument at all.


EDIT: Actually, my times in the brackets are the difference to the preceeding lap. If you take 1:47.xxx as the nominal time without the pitstop, it's another 2 seconds putting it just in the ballpark of 20 seconds of a net-loss.

[Intego]

I just had a look at the lap times around the pit stops. The lap times showed, that Vettel lost about 7 s due to the two stops and additional 5 s in laps 15–17 due to his position after his first stop. The others lost about 20 s (Button 18 s) and (Alonso 22 s), so the net gain of the SC was 6 s (on Button, depends on to whom you compare) plus fresher tyres. All in all Vettel had an advantage by luck, but still had to make it from the box to the podium.
Plus do not forget that Vettel started not until the pack was already in turn one, so no position gain at the start, but he closed to the end of the pack after the first round.

After one lap Vettel was 13.7 s behind Räikkönen, after the race it was 4.2 s, difference is 9.5 s. If I calculate pit stop lsses and SC gains then Vettel lost 2.1 s against Räikkönen due to pitting and overtaking backmarkers the first three laps after the first SC, so in fact he was 11.6 s faster than him during the race.
That means, if he had been on P 17 after the first lap (behind Petrov) Vettel would have won the race without Safety Cars. But that does imply the retired cars.

(I hope I got my numbers right )

[myurr]

I'm in no way a Vettel "fanboy," but I believe Seb is massively talented and at the same time has a massively talented team surrounding him. Webber has the same tools at his disposal and yet Vettel is most likely going to win his 3rd consecutive WDC this year. There may be "better" drivers out there in the purist sense, but it bothers me how people are quick dismiss Vettel's impressive drives as just good luck and having the quickest car in the field.

If you don't want people to dismiss his drives as luck then produce an in depth analysis showing how it was all driver skill with no luck involved.

Show how pitting for a new nose and tyres when he did behind the safety car was a hinderance rather than a net gain. Show how he overtook most of those in front of him on track rather than either having them eliminate themselves or passing them through the pit stops. Show how he had such superior pace that he would have made it to the podium without the second safety car.

Without producing facts both sides positions will be easy to dismiss as fanboyism and we won't get any further. I happen to fall into the camp that believes Vettel produced a solid drive but had a lot of luck that enabled him to finish as high as he did. If no one else has done the analysis I may turn my hand to it next weekend when I have some spare time.

[Intego]

Sooo, I hope, I got the numbers right now. I did three calculations:
First I only compared the lap times during Safety Car (laps 9–14, 39–42). Then it comes out that Vettel gained 30.118 seconds against Räikkönen, Alonso gained 9.835 s, and Button gained 12.050 s.

In the second step I took into account the time Vettel lost to regain the 12th place which he had before the first irregular stop (laps 15–20). It was 9.181 s, so the SC net gain is 20.937 s.

At last I considered all the stops so it's that Vettel gained 22.438 s against Räikkönen, Alonso gained 10.029 s, and Button 16.122 s. The rest was pure racing.

I think the crucial calculation is the second one, because it implies SC and regaining lost position from Vettel.

Result gains:
Vettel 20.937 s
Alonso 9.835 s
Button 12.050s

[FoxHound]

So the net gain barring race adjustments is 50 seconds?

If he didnt clout his front wing, he should of won the darn race with that sort of assistance....

[Intego]

So the net gain barring race adjustments is 50 seconds?

Hm, what do I not understand here?

[myurr]

Sooo, I hope, I got the numbers right now. I did three calculations:
First I only compared the lap times during Safety Car (laps 9–14, 39–42). Then it comes out that Vettel gained 30.118 seconds against Räikkönen, Alonso gained 9.835 s, and Button gained 12.050 s.

In the second step I took into account the time Vettel lost to regain the 12th place which he had before the first irregular stop (laps 15–20). It was 9.181 s, so the SC net gain is 20.937 s.

At last I considered all the stops so it's that Vettel gained 22.438 s against Räikkönen, Alonso gained 10.029 s, and Button 16.122 s. The rest was pure racing.

I think the crucial calculation is the second one, because it implies SC and regaining lost position from Vettel.

Result gains:
Vettel 20.937 s
Alonso 9.835 s
Button 12.050s

This illustrates the direct benefits of the two safety cars but ignores the other factors. By being forced to pit for tyres when he did it meant he was on fresher rubber than the rest of the field for the entire rest of the race distance, except for one relatively short window. In that window he was a couple of tenths slower than the front runners, but was still faster than Grosjean who was holding up several other cars. It also doesn't take into account the number of drivers who either dropped out of the running, made mistakes that put them behind Vettel, or simply let him past - like Webber and Vergne.

It would be interesting to list all the drivers in the race and mark next to them how Vettel got past them - was it an overtake, pass in the pits, they crashed out, etc.

[Intego]

FIA Race History Chart (PDF, 80 kB)
After lap 1 - Vettel passed DIR and GRO due to pit stops, closed the gap to the pack
2 - passed KAR, ROS pits
3 - passed PIC, SEN
4 - passed GLO, PET
7 - passed KOV
9 - VER pits
SC, VET is 12th
14 - VET pits, comes out last, closes to the pack
15 - passed DLR, DIR
16 - passed GRO, PIC
18 - passed GLO, PET (PET lost more places)
20 - passed KOV, VER, gained one position from HAM
21 - passed SEN
23 - passed RIC
25 - passed MSC, KOB pits
26 - MAS pits
28 - ALO pits
29 - BUT, MAL pit
30 - WEB, PER pit
31 - VET is 2nd
37 - VET pits
39 - SC, VET is 4th
52 - passed BUT

[Intego]

NB: The only overtakings Alonso made were against Webber with a massive straight line speed advantage and against Maldonado after 20! laps.
He got past Button in the first corner, because Webber pushed Button to the outside. Not his own credit.

No bashing, just mentioning ...

[AnthonyG]

I haven't seen this "theory" come round, but could Vettel's car be underfueled at the start of the race?
Starting with less fuel to have a lighter car and hoping on passing enough cars to come into the points and then start an eco run (with your car that's fast enough)?

To me it would explain why Vettel was so confident on his brakes at the beginning of the race. (outbraking more than 1 car at a time)
And the 2 SC's helped him a lot, disbanding his need for economising fuel.

[CHT]

NB: The only overtakings Alonso made were against Webber with a massive straight line speed advantage and against Maldonado after 20! laps.
He got past Button in the first corner, because Webber pushed Button to the outside. Not his own credit.

No bashing, just mentioning ...

great job intego. I hope those who still think otherwise will also do their own in-depth analysis to support their view point.

"One accurate measurement is worth more than a thousand expert opinions" — Admiral Grace Hoppe

[CHT]

I haven't seen this "theory" come round, but could Vettel's car be underfueled at the start of the race?
Starting with less fuel to have a lighter car and hoping on passing enough cars to come into the points and then start an eco run (with your car that's fast enough)?

To me it would explain why Vettel was so confident on his brakes at the beginning of the race. (outbraking more than 1 car at a time)
And the 2 SC's helped him a lot, disbanding his need for economising fuel.

There is no such thing as underfuel at start because underfuel will mean you will run out of fuel before the end of the race. However FIA do set the minimum weight of car + driver after the race, this is to ensure that no car is running under weight.

However it is possible that RBR do have more fuel efficient renault engine as compared to Ferrari and Mclaren, and this will translate to them carrying lesser fuel at the start.

[jz11]

I just had a look at the lap times around the pit stops. The lap times showed, that Vettel lost about 7 s due to the two stops and additional 5 s in laps 15–17 due to his position after his first stop. The others lost about 20 s (Button 18 s) and (Alonso 22 s), so the net gain of the SC was 6 s (on Button, depends on to whom you compare) plus fresher tyres. All in all Vettel had an advantage by luck, but still had to make it from the box to the podium.
Plus do not forget that Vettel started not until the pack was already in turn one, so no position gain at the start, but he closed to the end of the pack after the first round.

After one lap Vettel was 13.7 s behind Räikkönen, after the race it was 4.2 s, difference is 9.5 s. If I calculate pit stop lsses and SC gains then Vettel lost 2.1 s against Räikkönen due to pitting and overtaking backmarkers the first three laps after the first SC, so in fact he was 11.6 s faster than him during the race.
That means, if he had been on P 17 after the first lap (behind Petrov) Vettel would have won the race without Safety Cars. But that does imply the retired cars.

(I hope I got my numbers right )

Did you take into consideration tire management? due to all the circumstances he was on more or less on fresh tires all the way to the end of the race, meaning he could push as hard as he could at any time, rest of the field didn't have this luxury and had to stick to more or less normal race strategy

Everything just went his way, could have gone 180 degrees opposite though, in any of those 2 accidents, that he caused, he could have lost the wing completely. Even at the very end, he took lots of time, more than even his team expected, to get by Button, and it could have been Maldo instead of him, what then?

[CHT]

after hearing so much negative comment from Alonso fans about Vettel race at Abu Dhabi, I was really expecting something similar from Montezemolo, but instead he commented that Vettel had a fine race at Abu Dhabi

"To start sixth and finish second, despite only benefiting from one retirement from another car, clearly shows the pedigree of Fernando's race yet again. Of course, yesterday morning we were all hoping to gain back a few more points in the championship given Vettel's starting position. Instead he produced a fine race too, even if the two safety car periods certainly didn't help us...

[jz11]

There is no such thing as underfuel at start because underfuel will mean you will run out of fuel before the end of the race. However FIA do set the minimum weight of car + driver after the race, this is to ensure that no car is running under weight.

However it is possible that RBR do have more fuel efficient renault engine as compared to Ferrari and Mclaren, and this will translate to them carrying lesser fuel at the start.

more than less cars on the grid are actually underfueled at the start of the race, because having less fuel on board nets out as a gain overall, even if for a while you have to turn down the engine a bit and shortshift, add a pretty much mandatory tire conservation to this, and you get a race that we have nowdays, where leader is coasting at a safe distance (10-20sec) for long periods of time, even when he could theoretically go 0,5 or more seconds faster a lap

and everyone has to do this to a certain degree, except SV in this last race