F1 champ odds in 2012 - who will win?

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Who will become WDC in 2012

Vettel
38
32%
Hamilton
23
19%
Alonso
23
19%
Button
11
9%
Webber
3
3%
Massa
1
1%
Rosberg
4
3%
Schumacher
10
8%
Räikkönen
6
5%
Grossjean
1
1%
 
Total votes: 120

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WhiteBlue
92
Joined: 14 Apr 2008, 20:58
Location: WhiteBlue Country

Re: Red Bull Racing 2012

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raymondu999 wrote:Excuse my ignorance - but where did the other 62.9% of the pie chart go? :wtf:
To the other non Red Bull drivers. What I'm doing there is simply visualising the probabilities as expressed by the odds for the team mates. So you can compare team mates in relationship to each other irrespective of the absolute odds.

Image

This is the data table I have been using. The % colum shows the inverted odds at the time of the last data set.

Image

This is how it looks if you compare all five teams from the top of the WDC table. You basically get a graphical impression what kind of domination is expected by the odds. The graphic effect is making it comparable over the teams. I don't think I can do it easily with bars.

Image

And this is the single image that I posted.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)

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raymondu999
54
Joined: 04 Feb 2010, 07:31

Re: F1 champ odds in 2012 - who will win?

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I think in terms of title chasing a clearer picture is emerging - Vettel and Alonso I think will be the primary protagonists (despite neither having the quickest, or probably 2nd quickest car - I attribute that to McLaren and Lotus), with Hamilton a half-outside shot, given his team's recent propensity to dispense points at their leisure. You could see it in Spain too - champion drives from all 3 of them.

In terms of the fight for P4 after those three - I think it'll be close between Raikkonen, Button and Webber.

WB - and the betting money says? :mrgreen:
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Cam
45
Joined: 02 Mar 2012, 08:38

Re: F1 champ odds in 2012 - who will win?

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WhiteBlue wrote:I'm opening the traditional betting thread with the Betfair driver odds from January 3rd.

Image
Bump. WhiteBlue, just wondering whether there's an official update on odds now the season is panning out. Kimi would've been good to have some coin on for a place early on in the year. The bookies didn't back him early eh?
“There is only one good, knowledge, and one evil, ignorance.”
― Socrates
Ignorance is a state of being uninformed. Ignorant describes a person in the state of being unaware
who deliberately ignores or disregards important information or facts. © all rights reserved.

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WhiteBlue
92
Joined: 14 Apr 2008, 20:58
Location: WhiteBlue Country

Re: F1 champ odds in 2012 - who will win?

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Vettel 1.29
Alonso 4.4
Kimi 400

is the present status of the odds for WDC. I have stopped to post the regular updates in spring because I got a little pissed off by the attitude of some people around here. It makes no sense to do any graphic stuff because I missed all season.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)

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Joie de vivre
2
Joined: 02 Sep 2010, 10:12

Re: F1 champ odds in 2012 - who will win?

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Who will win? Little infintile Vettel.

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Joie de vivre
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Joined: 02 Sep 2010, 10:12

Re: F1 champ odds in 2012 - who will win?

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Someone gave me a -1 in my previous post.

Let me clarify myself why I called him infantile:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buG3UP-1 ... r_embedded[/youtube]

He is immature, childish. Look at Alonso. Mature, dedicated, focused, determined.

I still think he doesn't deserve this years title.

edit. :lol:

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WhiteBlue
92
Joined: 14 Apr 2008, 20:58
Location: WhiteBlue Country

Re: F1 champ odds in 2012 - who will win?

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Perhaps not the right yard stick. Senna, Berger, Schumacher were all up to the occasional prank when the opportunity arose. So why not give the guy a bit of a wider berth. The ex drivers know that they are likely to get doused when they do the interviews.
Formula One's fundamental ethos is about success coming to those with the most ingenious engineering and best .............................. organization, not to those with the biggest budget. (Dave Richards)

Caito
Caito
13
Joined: 16 Jun 2009, 05:30
Location: Switzerland

Re: F1 champ odds in 2012 - who will win?

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That he's at the peak of motorsport doesn't mean he has to be all serious and unfunny when he's out of the car.

Having a sense of humor is different to being infantile.


I'll go with Bernie's words "the one who wins deserves the title".
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beelsebob
beelsebob
85
Joined: 23 Mar 2011, 15:49
Location: Cupertino, California

Re: F1 champ odds in 2012 - who will win?

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I'd agree that Vettel looked Invantile... I just don't think it's a bad thing.

Being able to play around and not take everything in life super seriously is a good thing.

Nando
Nando
2
Joined: 10 Mar 2012, 02:30

Re: F1 champ odds in 2012 - who will win?

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I think as a future 3 time world champ he is immensely immature and acts like a cry baby quite a lot of times.
Sure he´s happy and stuff when things go well, that´s normal. If i had a couple of millions in the bank and was an F1 driver i would also be as happy as they come.

But when things go bad it´s crazy to watch him complain.
Anyone remember the FU sign to Narain? The screaming at Ricciardo for doing what everyone else is doing? The running into DRS boards because he´s sleeping at the wheel? The screaming in the pit radio "DO SOMETHING, I CAN`T PASS, DO SOMETHING"? The screaming when it rains and the "F´n car goes off" ?

He acts like a spoiled brat that thinks STR and their drivers are a lesser worth F1 team or something, as if he´s above them.

I honestly can´t wait for this RBR era to be over so people can see just how much was the car and how little it was the driver.
I find it hilarious when news sites compare him to Fangio and stuff, it´s absolutely ridiculous.
"Il Phenomeno" - The one they fear the most!

"2% of the world's population own 50% of the world's wealth."

beelsebob
beelsebob
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Joined: 23 Mar 2011, 15:49
Location: Cupertino, California

Re: F1 champ odds in 2012 - who will win?

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Nando wrote:I think as a future 3 time world champ he is immensely immature and acts like a cry baby quite a lot of times.
Sure he´s happy and stuff when things go well, that´s normal. If i had a couple of millions in the bank and was an F1 driver i would also be as happy as they come.
Right, I agree, the way he throws his toys out the pram when things aren't going right is pretty disgusting.

Nando
Nando
2
Joined: 10 Mar 2012, 02:30

Re: F1 champ odds in 2012 - who will win?

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With that said, he´s not a bad driver. He´s very good actually but he´s not a Messiah.
"Il Phenomeno" - The one they fear the most!

"2% of the world's population own 50% of the world's wealth."

lebesset
lebesset
7
Joined: 06 Aug 2008, 14:00

Re: F1 champ odds in 2012 - who will win?

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Nando wrote:With that said, he´s not a bad driver. He´s very good actually but he´s not a Messiah.
+1
to the optimist a glass is half full ; to the pessimist a glass is half empty ; to the F1 engineer the glass is twice as big as it needs to be

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Joie de vivre
2
Joined: 02 Sep 2010, 10:12

Re: F1 champ odds in 2012 - who will win?

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nvm 

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raymondu999
54
Joined: 04 Feb 2010, 07:31

Re: F1 champ odds in 2012 - who will win?

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So with the finale, here are the standings

New points
Vettel - 273
Alonso - 260

13 points. 13 points in it. Alonso must outscore Vettel by 14 points. In the event that they end up even stevens on score - then Vettel wins the title because of winning more races.

In order for Alonso to be the 2012 champion, Alonso MUST FINISH ON THE PODIUM, and Vettel MUST FINISH OUTSIDE OF THE TOP 4

Vettel will be champion if:
- Vettel finishes in the top 4
- Vettel finishes P5-P7, Alonso finishes P2 or lower
- Vettel P8-P9, Alonso finishes P3 or lower
- Vettel finishes P10/DNFs, Alonso off the podium

Alonso will be champion if:
- Alonso wins, Vettel finishes P5 or lower
- Alonso P2, Vettel finishes P8 or lower
- Alonso P3, Vettel finishes P10 or lower
- If Alonso is off the podium, he CANNOT be champion.

==============================================================================

(I did the old money calculations just for the hell of it)
Old points
Vettel – 112
Alonso – 106

Same rules apply as above (if they end up same score, then Vettel becomes champion). Interestingly in old money Vettel is a lot closer to the title.

In OLD MONEY, in order for Alonso to be the 2012 champion, Alonso MUST FINISH IN THE TOP 2, and Vettel MUST FINISH OUTSIDE OF THE TOP 5

Vettel will be champion if:
- Vettel finishes in the top 5
- Vettel finishes P6-P7, Alonso finishes P2 or lower
- Vettel finishes P8 or lower, Alonso finishes P3 or lower

Alonso will be champion if:
- Alonso wins, Vettel finshes P6 or lower
- Alonso finishes P2, Vettel finishes P8 or lower
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