Hey all, It's that time for the most contentious of threads. Please try to keep discussion to possible inaccuracies in my approximations, rather than fanboy ying yang. Please bear in mind that everything here *is* approximate, it's all guessing.
Here's what I'm taking as "out of driver control":
• Mechanical failures.
• Mechanic --- ups.
• Being hit by another driver without a way of avoiding it.
• Getting punctured by random on-track debris.
What I'm not counting as "out of driver control":
• Gaining or losing from the safety car. This is mostly because it's way too hard to take account of. A safety car on lap 20, closing up 40 second gaps, and ending up causing collisions etc and putting someone 40 seconds ahead in a fight with someone new… just way too complex to figure out basically.
• Strategy --- ups… Again, impossible to figure out.
• Avoidable accidents.
I'm only going to deal with the top few drivers, because again, way too much effort, this is only fun and games, I'm not going to spend hours on something that's mostly a "what if" masturbation.
Australia:
Schumacher's gearbox failed, bumping webber, alonso and raikonnen up a bit:
1. BUT 25
2. VET 18
3. HAM 15
5. WEB 10
6. ALO 8
8. RAI 4
Malaysia:
Button's contact with the Cucumber was his own fault. The cucumber was penalised against Vettel though, Vettel is promoted to 4th. Realistically again, the finishing order was not very much affected by luck.
1. ALO 25 (33)
3. HAM 15 (30)
4. VET 12 (30)
5. WEB 10 (20)
6. RAI 8 (12)
China:
Button's pit stop got cocked up, but realistically, it wouldn't have saved him enough for the lead. Schumacher's gearbox failure saved everyone a place.
3. BUT 15 (40)
4. HAM 12 (43)
5. WEB 10 (30)
6. VET 8 (38)
10. ALO 1 (34)
Bahrain:
Hamilton had an 18 second pit stop, dropping him behind alonso, button and rosberg. He then had a second pit stop disaster, a 12 second stop. Button got a puncture, dropping him from 7th to 12th, he likely would have passed DiResta for 6th. He also had a worrying engine noise, but this is moot, as he was out of the points. Based on time left in pit stops alone, Hamilton would have finished in 4th place, 10 seconds behind grosjean. However, given the time lost behind people, it's likely 3nd was on the cards:
1. VET 25 (63)
2. RAI 18 (30)
3. HAM 15 (58)
5. WEB 10 (40)
7. BUT 6 (46)
8. ALO 4 (38)
Spain:
Hamilton had his mechanics cock up with his fuel rig, dropping him from pole to last. Hamilton's race was also hampered by a pit stop cock up. Vettel and Massa's drive throughs were both personal cock ups, not team. Given Hamilton's qualifying and race pace, it's extremely likely he would have won, had he not been pushed to the back:
1. HAM 25 (83)
3. ALO 15 (53)
4. RAI 12 (42)
7. VET 6 (69)
9. BUT 2 (48)
Monaco:
The safety car sure did help Vettel here, but I've not taken it into account, because it would be way too complex to figure out.
1. WEB 25 (65)
3. ALO 15 (68)
4. VET 12 (81)
5. HAM 10 (93)
9. RAI 2 (44)
Canada:
Tyre chaos, but no major cock ups affecting the race:
1. HAM 25 (118)
4. VET 12 (93)
5. ALO 10 (78)
7. WEB 6 (71)
8. RAI 4 (48)
Valencia:
Hamilton had another pit stop cock up, dropping him from 3rd to 5th, causing him to wear tyres out and lose time. Both Vettel and Grosjean had alternator failures. Hamilton would likely have been ahead of Alonso and Raikonnen, and not have had to drive his tyres so hard had he not have had his pit stop cock up, preventing him from ever being anywhere near Maldonado:
1. VET 25 (118)
3. HAM 15 (133)
4. ALO 12 (90)
5. RAI 10 (58)
8. WEB 4 (75)
Silverstone:
Madness in qualifying, but not really any quantifiable cock ups. The McLaren's set up was clearly compromised, but I have no idea how to quantify that.
1. WEB 25 (100)
2. ALO 18 (108)
3. VET 15 (133)
5. RAI 10 (68)
8. HAM 4 (137)
10. BUT 1 (49)
Germany:
Hamilton got a puncture in turn 1, dropping him way down. He later showed he had more than enough speed to take on Vettel. Vettel's penalty was far from bad luck.
1. ALO 25 (133)
2. HAM 18 (155)
3. BUT 15 (64)
4. RAI 12 (80)
6. VET 8 (141)
9. WEB 2 (102)
Hungary:
Nothing much exciting in terms of cock ups here.
1. HAM 25 (180)
2. RAI 18 (98)
4. VET 12 (153)
5. ALO 10 (143)
6. BUT 8 (72)
8. WEB 4 (106)
Spa:
Alonso and Hamilton got grosjeaned. It's pretty tough to tell how fast they would have been in the race. Alonso made a great start, and typically this year went very well in races. Hamilton is more of a mixed bag. He certainy would have got Maldonado (after a penalty for the start), and was past webber on the start. This one's a bit of a guess:
1. BUT 25 (97)
2. VET 18 (171)
3. ALO 15 (158)
4. RAI 12 (110)
6. HAM 8 (188)
7. WEB 6 (112)
Italy:
Vettel suffered an alternator failure, he had just been penalised for pushing alonso wide, that penalty had dropped him to 6th place. Button stopped while running second. Alonso had an anti-roll bar failure in qually, which caused him to qualify much lower than he might otherwise, on the other hand, he ate his tyres in the race. I've guessed he might have beaten perez with this in mind.
1. HAM 25 (213)
2. BUT 18 (115)
3. ALO 15 (173)
6. VET 8 (179)
7. RAI 6 (116)
Singapore:
Hamilton had a gear box failure while obviously controlling the race.
1. HAM 25 (238)
2. VET 18 (197)
3. BUT 15 (130)
4. ALO 12 (185)
7. RAI 6 (122)
Japan:
Alonso got taken out on the first lap, but it's really hard to figure out where he realistically would have finished. Based once again on a good start, and generally good race pace, I'm going to make a blind guess at P5. Hamilton suffered an anti-roll bar failure, causing him to drop behind kobayashi:
1. VET 25 (214)
3. HAM 15 (253)
5. ALO 10 (195)
6. BUT 8 (138)
7. RAI 6 (128)
10. WEB 1 (113)
Korea:
Hamilton's anti-roll bar failed, without this he likely would have stuck in P4 happily.
1. VET 25 (247)
2. WEB 18 (131)
3. ALO 15 (210)
4. HAM 12 (265)
6. RAI 8 (136)
India:
No major dramas here:
1. VET 25 (272)
2. ALO 18 (228)
3. WEB 15 (146)
4. HAM 12 (277)
5. BUT 10 (148)
7. RAI 6 (142)
Abu Dhabi:
Vettel's team cocked up his fuelling for qualifying, resulting in him starting from the pit lane. His race pace was boosted by the complete change of setup, and he did get a lot of luck, but realistically, he should have qualified in P3, he would have passed webber well before webber had his shunt. Hamilton had yet another failure while leading:
1. HAM 25 (302)
2. VET 18 (290)
3. ALO 15 (243)
4. BUT 12 (160)
United States:
Webber had an alternator failure while running 3rd here.
1. HAM 25 (327)
2. VET 18 (308)
3. WEB 15 (161)
3. ALO 12 (255)
5. BUT 10 (170)
6. RAI 8 (150)
Brazil:
Hamilton gets punted out by Hulkenberg, and had a very bad pit stop. Other than that, no major incidences of idiocy. I'll give Hulk the benefit of the doubt as he was gaining on Hamilton at the time, and likely would have passed him. Vettel caused his own incident.
2. HAM 18 (345)
3. BUT 15 (185)
4. ALO 12 (267)
6. WEB 8 (169)
7. VET 6 (314)
So, the championship without cock ups looks like this:
1. 345 - Hamilton
2. 314 - Vettel
3. 267 - Alonso
4. 185 - Button
5. 169 - Webber
6. 150 - Raikkonen
So we can see that over the season, Hamilton lost 155 points to general misfortune; vettel lost 33; alonso gained 11, raikkonen gained 55, and button gained 3.
Edits made:
1. Given Alonso a placing at Spa, no idea why he wasn't placed before.
2. Given Vettel p6 in italy.
3. Webber's alternator failure at CotA.
4. Added Alonso's qualifying failure in italy.
5. Fixed the summation of Alonso's points.
6. Added Schumacher's gearbox failures in Australia and China.
7. Gave Vettel p4 in Malaysia.
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