2012, minus events out of a driver's control.

[Nando]

I think he was set for a pretty comfortable pole by a couple of tenths frankly but we will never know.
He looked massively strong in Italy.

[beelsebob]

Yeh, you guys have a point, I'll tweak italy slightly to account for that.

[Nando]

Question is who would have won. Alonso in the race did not have the pace of Hamilton and he shot his tires it seemed at the very end.
Wonder how much earlier they would have been shot with Hamilton chasing him.

On the other hand, leading and having free air seems to give you an extra 2-3 laps from the tires

[beelsebob]

I updated italy guessing that Alonso would have held off perez with that, but might not have got button. I also discovered that I somehow subtracted 60 odd points from alonso just after italy, I've fixed that too... He looks much less lucky now.

[Arterius]

Thank you for doing the calculations.

Just one thing to add. What about Michaels gearbox failures in Australia and China? If those didn't happen it would take away points from some of the title contenders.

IIRC Michael was in second position in Australia being chased down by Vettel who would most likely have passed him. Hamilton might have passed him as well. This would have put Micheal down in 4th pushing Webber to 5th, Alonso to 6th and Kimi to 8th.

In China Michael was in second and keeping the gap to Button behind. Without the DNF it would have been a Mercedes 1-2 and pushed all the title contenders down one position.

[beelsebob]

Thank you for doing the calculations.

Just one thing to add. What about Michaels gearbox failures in Australia and China? If those didn't happen it would take away points from some of the title contenders.

IIRC Michael was in second position in Australia being chased down by Vettel who would most likely have passed him. Hamilton might have passed him as well. This would have put Micheal down in 4th pushing Webber to 5th, Alonso to 6th and Kimi to 8th.

In China Michael was in second and keeping the gap to Button behind. Without the DNF it would have been a Mercedes 1-2 and pushed all the title contenders down one position.

Both good calls. Let me make the changes.

[mbvinnie]

Um, Kar was penalized by the stewards for Vet incident in Malaysia. Disagreeing with stewards decision is surely showing bias, you may disagree but it is personal opinion vs stewards decision. The stewards decision is surely the 'neutral' position.

Also what about super slow stop for Vet in Brazil due to radio issue (tyres not ready).
Decent chance of finishing ahead of at least Web given his pace and the situation - he was way quicker than anyone at end.

[beelsebob]

Um, Kar was penalized by the stewards for Vet incident in Malaysia. Disagreeing with stewards decision is surely showing bias, you may disagree but it is personal opinion vs stewards decision. The stewards decision is surely the 'neutral' position.

You're right, my bad, I had thought Karthikeyan hadn't been punished. I'll make that change.

Also what about super slow stop for Vet in Brazil due to radio issue (tyres not ready).
Decent chance of finishing ahead of at least Web given his pace and the situation - he was way quicker than anyone at end.

Fair point, but I'm not convinced by your assertion about finishing ahead of Webber. He would have come out of the pits behind Hulk still, and probably would not have risked a pass due to being in championship winning position. If there'd been any motivation to get past Webber, they would have made the swap anyway.

[mbvinnie]

Fair point, but I'm not convinced by your assertion about finishing ahead of Webber. He would have come out of the pits behind Hulk still, and probably would not have risked a pass due to being in championship winning position. If there'd been any motivation to get past Webber, they would have made the swap anyway.

Hulk would not have been there according to your new situation - it depends on how much time VET lost in that pitstop (guessing around 20seconds?), and how far behind Webber he was when a). he rejoined after the slow pitstop and b). the last safety car came out (less than 20seconds?).
He was comfortably ahead of Webber before the last round of pitstops where the TEAM got it wrong + the radio issue interfered + the slow pitstop. Could he have caught Massa also?

[mbvinnie]

I think this analysis really supports how close the top 3 drivers really are. I would guess the fastest cars on average this season (Qualy + Race + Starting ability) were McLaren, then Red Bull, then Ferrari 3rd.
And the championship without bad luck etc looks like it would be HAM, then VET, then ALO.

So they all 'deserved' it!

And maybe Kimi too?
Though I think this definitely rules out WEB, MAS and BUT as being the most deserving...

[beelsebob]

And maybe Kimi too?
Though I think this definitely rules out WEB, MAS and BUT as being the most deserving...

I think actually the one thing it demonstrates best is that Kimi didn't deserve it. He was so high up because he completed n - 1 laps (where n is the number of laps in the championship), not because he was ever really competitive.

Hulk would not have been there according to your new situation - it depends on how much time VET lost in that pitstop (guessing around 20seconds?), and how far behind Webber he was when a). he rejoined after the slow pitstop and b). the last safety car came out (less than 20seconds?).
He was comfortably ahead of Webber before the last round of pitstops where the TEAM got it wrong + the radio issue interfered + the slow pitstop. Could he have caught Massa also?

I don't buy that he lost anywhere close to 20 seconds, or are you trying to assert that he wouldn't have pitted twice with a working radio? If so, the rain started half way round the out lap, so he absolutely would have needed a second pit stop still.

[.poz]

IMHO all this is pointless.

F1 is a team sport, you win as a team and lost as a team. You can speculate "what if..." on event out of control of driver AND team (like someone crushing on your car) but a mechanical failure is something come from a team error/choice, like RB mounting 2011 spec alternator on 2012 car.

McLaren had a faster car than Ferrari and Button was faster than Massa but Ferrari is ahead of McLaren in constructor championship for his superior reliability.

[Richard]

We've had these before, and they're always messy.

As your mother would say, its for your own good.