2013 pecking order speculation

[beelsebob]

I wasn't joking >.<

[FoxHound]

At the start of the season:
Red Bull > Merc > McLaren > Lotus> Ferrari

At the end:
McLaren > Red Bull > Lotus > Ferrari > Sauber > Force India > Williams > Toro Rosso > Caterham > Merc

You honestly think caterham are going to be stronger than Mercedes at the end of the season?

[raymondu999]

At the start of the season:
Red Bull > Merc > McLaren > Lotus> Ferrari

At the end:
McLaren > Red Bull > Lotus > Ferrari > Sauber > Force India > Williams > Toro Rosso > Caterham > Merc

You honestly think caterham are going to be stronger than Mercedes at the end of the season?

Nothing wrong with that is there?

[FoxHound]

Nothing wrong with that is there?

Okay, I'll bite.

Caterham (or Lotus GP) have never qualified in the top 10.
Nor have they ever scored a championship point.
They have never had a fastest lap
Nor where they within a second of Mercedes in qualifying at Brazil.

In addition to the fact Mercedes is a factory operation, in the middle of a big expansion with a bigger budget... and Caterham a "new team" with no real hope of getting anywhere near Q3.

Is it possible? Of course, Torro Rosso beat Red bull and as embarrassing as that must have been for the main team it was a much closer comparison.
If anyone thinks there is any mileage in Caterham ending the season faster than Mercedes...I will put up a bet at 10/1 odds that it won't happen.

And yea I know it's a speculation thread, but some foundation would be nice.

@ Beelsebob
Thats not to sully what you have written, I would just be keen to know why.

[marcush.]

Caterham have massively disappointed this year -they have the same engine ,gearbox kers as the championship winning car..and they have john illey as head of aero and a lot of capable staff poached away from FI....so their form was the second negative surprise of the year really...
but then it(the pecking order) was a joke really ,Lewis will drag W04 to a podium ,no question.

[raymondu999]

FoxHound - my point was not that it was likely that Merc would fall behind Caterham. My point is this is a speculation thread, full of opinions. Nothing wrong with having an opinion, however unlikely you may think it is. I personally don't think they'll fall back to that point.

[Cam]

Red Bull are sure to there or there about again and are safe money for 1st. Lotus for 2nd or 3rd again and probably 2nd. Ferrari will struggle this year and might drag it into 3rd. McLaren won't be a huge threat this year with Button and Perez - with Hamilton, sure, but not to be. 4th in 2013. Sauber will hassle for 3-5 all year but will succumb to development costs and finish 5th. Merc in at 6th after a couple of freak podiums. The rest will fight it out and be mixed as usual.

[godlameroso]

I see it as even closer among the top teams for 2013, even more so than this year. I predict a design convergence, and as of now, it's basically who can refine their car the best. Ferrari is very good at this process, Lotus have a very competent design team, and so does McLaren. Red Bull will be fast but not faster than everyone and if they are faster than everyone, by a smaller margin than 2012. Really the big question is Mercedes, they have possibly the two fastest drivers in the sport at the moment, let's see if the additional resources of the team are enough to lift the car somewhere competitive. As for the midfield....a bloodbath in the making is all I can surmise. As usual Sauber will have a very well thought out and designed car ironing out the weaknesses of the previous package but falter due to a lack of development during the year. FI and Williams will be there or thereabouts, and I especially see Williams as being a surprise next year. Force India will be one of those cars that is fast at some circuits and slow in others not because the car is inconsistent but because they will luck into the car's operating window.

Marrusia Toro Rosso, and Caterham will be fighting among themselves for the leftover one or two points on the occasional race, and finally, no team will worry about the 107% rule, which IMO should really be a 104% rule.

[FoxHound]

Well I'm going to guess

Red bull>McLaren>Ferrari>Mercedes>Lotus>Sauber>Force India>Williams>Torro Rosso>Caterham>Marussia

Red Bull will again be the overall best machine to have.
McLaren could possibly usurp them at certain point's, potentially for the overall title of best machine.
Ferrari will have a years experience on the pull rod front's and will have the right exhaust from the start Coanda. they will be closer to the front.
Gap
Mercedes could move forwards in 2013. No DDRS focussed car means more avenues of potential to be explored like coanda, and aero elasticity(Brawn mentioned it while refering to the flexing nose of Red bull).
Lotus will be competitive once more, utilising the experience of 2012, and focussing more on the Coanda exhausts.
Gap
Sauber will be okay, but I think they will lose out on some their spectacular runs they had in 2012. Losing James Key will not have helped either.
Force India will be interesting to see what they can come up with. I will guess just behind Sauber, but they could surprise people in 2013.
Williams have let a few people go recently, and maybe this will show in the final product in 2013. Midfield mediocrity beckons methinks.
Torro Rosso tough time in 2012 will be followed into 2013. No changes, although it would be interesting to see if Felix Da Costa will get a bow in the car at some point.
Gap
Caterham and Marussia will both not want to receive the wooden spoon, but I cannot split them as it will come down to who finishes higher(as in 2010/11/12) as they don't score points....

[turbof1]

It's way too difficult to decide the exact order, so I like to work with pools:

top-teams
The ussual ones obviously are mclaren, red bull and ferrari. I am guessing mercedes will finally get a breakthrough. Lotus probably also will be there. Consistently and based on previous years, red bull and mclaren be on top with ferrari trailing behind. If Mercedes finally can get rid of their internal problems, I think they'll be in the mix with mclaren and red bull.

midfield teams
Very tough one who will lead this group, with choice between Sauber, Force India and Williams who all can be best of the rest. I think Sauber might have a little edge above the others. Especially the first few races they'll be strong, as they traditionally have been kind on their tyres even when other teams struggled. Torro Rosso obviously will be hanging down of this group, and may or may not be beaten by Marussia, who I think will suprise next year. They were the last few races on par with Caterham, even without kers. Furthermore while Caterham had the luxury of constantly evolving the car throughout the years, Marussia started from scratch. Marussia probably will understand the car much better by now and will make great gains, whereas caterham isn't going to find alot on an already matured car.

back-of-the-field
Caterham and Marussia obviously, if Marussia can't make anything from the potentional they have.

[Forghieri]

According to Alonso, Ferrari still has a gap of 07.-0.8 sec. to close, the rules in 2013 stay practically the same, so no big differences to be found there.
In my opinion it is possible to find half a second or more only if you understand exactly what the problem is and can fix it, Ferrari understood perfect what the aerodynamic errors were, and were able to find almost a second by half season.

But if the gap at the end of the season still is between 0.6-0.8 sec. this might indicate that there is something fundamentally wrong with the car, and with the rules staying in place, it will be very hard to make a big step of more than half a second, Alonso knows this of course, that's probably why he asked Ferrari to find the limits of what is legal on the new car.
But this year they missed out on 3 points, despite the technical crisis/lack of updates, so all Ferrari has to do is close the gap marginally, maintain their reliability, and they should be able to fight for the title.

That's also why i see a very difficult season ahead for Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes Gp, which will be in favor of Vettel, 'cause Hamilton will not have the car to score big points, like he could do this year with McLaren.
But who knows, maybe Perez will have a sensational season a fill in that role.

My prediction is (first 5)
-Red Bull Racing (will be fighting with Ferrari for the title)
-McLaren (difficult year for Perez, Button not consistent enough all year round to have serious go at the WDC)
-Ferrari (closer to Red Bull and McLaren, 0.3-0.5 sec. together with Ferrari's reliability, Alonso's relentlessness, Massa's re found motivation, it will be enough to take the WDC)
-Lotus (fast and fighting for race wins 'till mid season, by then they've lost out on development tempo)
-Sauber/Williams(good qualifications and the possibility of a race win)

[beelsebob]

@ Beelsebob
Thats not to sully what you have written, I would just be keen to know why.

Very simple – Caterham have shown that they can, with their limited resources develop a car throughout the season. Mercedes have shown over the past 3 years (and in fact during the year as Brawn) that they are incapable of making their car faster during a season. They always go backwards relative to the other teams.

Now, add to that that Caterham have consistently got about a second closer to the back of the midfield each year, and you can see them being right up there with Toro Rosso next year. Mercedes ended this season slower than pretty much all the midfield in a race, so that would suggest that by the end of next season, the likely outcome will be Mercedes being slower than the entire mid field, and Caterham being on the back of that mid field.

[FoxHound]

I will bet that Caterham dont come within 1 second of Mercedes at the final race Beelsebob.

How much would you like to levy on it?

[beelsebob]

I will bet that Caterham dont come within 1 second of Mercedes at the final race Beelsebob.

How much would you like to levy on it?

I'll do you odds of 100000000000:1 on £0.

[FoxHound]

What's the point?

End of the day, I'll eat nomex/spandex/you'name'itX I'm that confident a caterham will not be quicker than a Mercedes at the year end gp.
If you truly have that opinion, then fair play. Personally I think mercedes have a lot to gain in 2013.
As do Ferrari.

Their concept paths will have now converged onto a coanda exhaust from the outset, and they both have the resource to utilise this tech in a more advantageous way than they did this year.
Allied to the fact Mercedes will have to ditch the ddrs system as they ran it, it leaves scope for them to have more front wing developments, something that killed them dead in their tracks development wise this year.

Anything is possible, granted. But even a pig dog slow Mercedes that is a laughing stock will still have the measure of an exemplary caterham in 2013, in my opinion of course.