
"If we take Red Bull's best time from the two Barcelona tests – which was Vettel’'s 1m22.197s last month – take off 0.7 seconds for the track improvement that happened this week, and deduct 2.45s to fuel correct it down to empty and you are left with a probable potential of 1m19.047s.
If Rosberg was running 30kg of fuel today (as could be expected), then that leaves a theoretical best of 1m19.08s. However, if the W04 was running on even less fuel, its potential best would start heading towards the mid-1m19s."
Really? What about different front wing, different rear wing, different exhaust (examples, I don't know if they were different) and/or better understanding of those components? What about hundreds more laps of data and better understanding of tyres? How many tenths for that? Although to be fair the assumption may be that those equalise themselves.
Somehow Red Bull end up 0,2 in front, which is basically within calculation error, let's say 0,1 on one side and 0,1 on the other. I think they deserve it, for name, Newey, past reputation and the fact that they did not do much, spectacular time-wise which makes it easier to speculate. It's a safe bet and you can't disprove it. Because also you know, "they may be sandbagging", woooo.
Useless F1 teams didn't even bother to run race sims on the last day, apart from Force India and Sauber (abandoned one). I've read on AMUS FI's was slightly better so I'm tipping them as a dark horse based on that and the fact that I like them.
Another number, from S. Michael: nine teams within 1 second. Probably until the second part of the first stint on full fuel on SS in Australia.