Gary Anderson predicts F1's pecking order

[CHT]

FASTEST TIMES IN BAHRAIN (AS PERCENTAGE)

Team-Engine Deficit Tyre
1. Mercedes Soft
2. McLaren-Mercedes +1.795% Soft*
3. Force India-Mercedes +3.390% Soft
4. Ferrari +3.466% Soft
5. Williams-Mercedes +4.055% Soft
6. Sauber-Ferrari +4.178% Soft
7. Lotus-Renault +5.815% Soft
8. Toro Rosso-Renault +6.101% Soft
9. Red Bull-Renault +6.597% Medium
10. Caterham-Renault +7.045% Soft
11. Marussia-Ferrari +9.892% Winter medium

As Kevin Magnussen's fastest McLaren time was set on supersoft rubber, Jenson Button's final-day lap on softs, just 0.057s slower, has been used. This was effectively a faster lap as it was on slower rubber.

Last year, the average lap-time performance step between each compound of tyre was around 0.4 seconds. I will use that figure rather than the specific differences from Bahrain, which did vary from team to team.

So taking the above, and equalising for the different tyre compounds that we actually know about, we now have:

Team-Engine Deficit
1. Mercedes
2. McLaren-Mercedes +1.795%
3. Force India-Mercedes +3.390%
4. Ferrari +3.466%
5. Williams-Mercedes +4.055%
6. Sauber-Ferrari +4.606%
7. Lotus-Renault +5.815%
8. Toro Rosso-Renault +6.101%
9. Red Bull-Renault +6.597%
Qualifying time cut off. +7.000%
10. Caterham-Renault +7.045%
11. Marussia-Ferrari +9.892%

[theformula]

Did he mention anything else?

[myurr]

His figures forget to correct Red Bull's time for being on the medium tyre, but that doesn't make much difference. The long story short, as covered in the full article, is that even with fuel correction on McLaren might be able to get near Mercedes time at present. That may change once the final aero parts arrive, setup improves, and the engines are all turned up to max but for the moment at least it looks like Mercedes have a healthy advantage.

That does change somewhat in the race where it should be much closer. If the relative performances remain the same in Australia, and that's a very big if, then we could be in for a race where Mercedes can act like Red Bull at their best. Crank up the power for a few laps to pull a gap and then sit back and cruise managing the gap, putting in little spurts where needed to make sure they keep out front.

[myurr]

Did he mention anything else?

Other than the bits I just posted the only other take away regarding the top teams was that whilst Ferrari looked okay he thought the car lacked the downforce of the Mercedes and McLaren and looked more unstable because of it. Not to say it isn't a quick car and won't be in the mix, he just thought there was a deficit that they'll need to address.

Plus the obvious about Red Bull and Renault in general.

[Juzh]

Last year, the average lap-time performance step between each compound of tyre was around 0.4 seconds.

What? It was more like 1s and sometimes even more (china). I guess it's just gary being gary again.

[theformula]

Did he mention anything else?

Other than the bits I just posted the only other take away regarding the top teams was that whilst Ferrari looked okay he thought the car lacked the downforce of the Mercedes and McLaren and looked more unstable because of it. Not to say it isn't a quick car and won't be in the mix, he just thought there was a deficit that they'll need to address.

Plus the obvious about Red Bull and Renault in general.

Ok thanks!

[Rikhart]

Really? This man is a DISASTER at predicting and analyzing anything! I dont remember him being right a single instance!

[theformula]

Really? This man is a DISASTER at predicting and analyzing anything! I dont remember him being right a single instance!

Bit harsh, he has been wrong on occasions yes, but this is just preliminary analysis and he's not saying that these figures are exactly right....

[Pup]

...and things will probably change through the next test.

At least we should hope so. If the gaps he calculates are real and continue through the better part of the season, we'll have a very boring year.

But, being an ever optimistic McLaren fan, I'm certain that we'll at least have a 2-team battle for the championship.

[timbo]

Really? This man is a DISASTER at predicting and analyzing anything! I dont remember him being right a single instance!

Bit harsh, he has been wrong on occasions yes, but this is just preliminary analysis and he's not saying that these figures are exactly right....

But the thread title says he predicts pecking order. Is it from an article?
Anyway, I wouldn't trust anyone who claims he's able to predict relative pace at this stage.

[f1316]

Glad I paid for that then!

But yeah, I thought it was a very facile analysis - I'd be very surprised if the gaps are anything like his predictions.

Also he seems to suggest that it's the merc engine that's better but doesn't mention top speeds; plus, he mentions some big disparities in merc long runs without adding that this might allude to the need for significant fuel saving.

All a bit of a pointless analysis if you ask me.

[Blackout]

Really ? you believe in those gaps ? it's BS. And the pecking order too.

[BoozeBaron]

Is it from an article?

I believe this is taken from a paid article from Autosport (I could be wrong as I thought Gary would write for the BBC site only) but hey ho...

http://plus.autosport.com/premium/featu ... ing-order/

Either way - it's only testing ppl - True it's only 17 days till Oz with 1 testing session squeezed in yet ... It will be close - but think the top 3 will tighten things up before then - I hope!

(I also hope they enforce the 107% rule) - They created both this monster (V6T -AND- the 107% rule - so now enforce it!) I wanna see them die by their own blade(s) (FOM, not teams)

[Unc1eM0nty]

This guy has a poor history at calling the pecking order !

I don't think the time gaps will look anything like this after the 3rd test, most teams have been working on reliability, now's the time for them to see just what there cars can do.

[Pup]

Likely. I think Merc is the only team who have really tested significant aero upgrades and who have admitted going all-out in qualifying trim. (That's not to say that they won't find more time before the first race.) McLaren ran with a small update on the last day, but they say their major aero package is next week, and I assume the same is true for Ferrari.

So I'm definitely looking (hoping) for the gap to close between McLaren and Mercedes. Ferrari is still a mystery, and they may well surprise everyone in March.

I have to guess that Renault will improve, but still not approach the top runners. After all, they've already started building the engines for Australia, so there isn't much they can do in that respect. All they've really got is software and tuning from here on. There could even be a short period where their gap to the front increases before things really start to turn around for them.