Glyn wrote:I think you are over-estimating the competitiveness of the other teams.
Perhaps. My sense, however, is that the Mercs greatest advantage is on the long straights, which won't be of much help here. I don't think they're weak in any particular way, but I think some of their biggest strengths may be blunted here. Monaco these days is won and lost in quali, and while I would put Lewis as the best qualifier in the field, and Nico as perhaps the best around Monaco, the circuit is unforgiving. It's easy for the best driver/car to wind up in the armco, or held up due to yellow/red flags, etc. Merc will want to be conservative and bring their cars home. Drivers like Seb and Kimi will ignore team orders and go balls-to-the-wall if only to qualify ahead of their teammates.
Monaco isn't necessarily a question of technical advantage, but of risk management. No other circuit is quite like this (Canada and Singapore have their corners, but Monaco is the whole circuit.) And we don't have the clearest sense of how well the different cars compare around a relatively low-speed bumpy circuit. Merc could be even farther ahead here than elsewhere, but I think it's also possible that this is the one race where RB can get low-speed mechanical grip down and make a real run at the front. I think it's the only race that the other teams even stand a chance, even in the rain. If Merc lock out the front row here, then the season is well and truly over. Everyone else will be fighting to not get lapped the rest of the year.
And if it rains, well...I'll just note that Olivier Panis won Monaco in a Ligier.
Anyone could win if it rains. As much as I want to see Lewis win, I cannot tell you how much I want it to rain...
