MountainBiker wrote:I see many news sites still pushing the "this is RedBulls best chance" line, just like the did before the Spanish GP where it was the "RB better in high speed corner / better chassis" line, at least the Spainish GP line had some credibility, I just can't see why they all think the Merc can be beaten at a track they dominated on last season, and in a car that is so much improved in every aspect.
That doesn't necessarily suggest that Mercedes is weak here, rather that we can't predict how the teams will do. In Barcelona, everyone was expecting big upgrade packages that could bring big benefits for some teams, so that made it a bit less predictable. But in the end, Merc wound up possibly being even faster. Since Barcelona, I think it's pretty safe to say that Merc will own every race this season that looks like a previously run race. That is, everything except Monaco. Monaco is another difficult to predict race, simply because it's so different (not the least of which being that it's a high-attrition track due to crashes which are impossible to predict).
Think of it a different way. Nico hasn't always qualified on the front row, but he's always been able to get up to 1 or 2, and by a large margin. If Merc qualifies off the front row (rain, crash, whatever reason) and RB is on the front row, can the Mercedes get past? Lewis has a long history of trying to get past at Monaco, and a pretty long history of visiting the armco or the other guys sidepod in the effort. It wouldn't be a glorious win for RB, but 25 points is 25 points.
Short of mechanical failure or Lewis getting taken out trying to lap Maldonado, I don't see any likely scenario for RB at any other race, and likely neither does the media, but odds are best for a non-Merc win at Monaco. Hell, remember when Montoya and Michael crashed in the tunnel behind the safety car? Crap like that happens all the damn time in Monaco.
Unfortunately, rain is looking less likely now.