Sacrbs twitted this weekend that "Toro Rosso confirmed they renominated their gears before Monaco for a longer 1st gear."
Which actually was already said in the comments (I missed that part first time around) in the tweet from Tobias Guener that I challenged before:
https://twitter.com/tgruener/status/472336722739875841
Well, that explains the discrepancy, they only changed first, and I was lacking that first gear until Monaco. I didn't think that they would change one gear ratio only, but that is indeed the case. I take my challenge back, and apologies if they are due.
Below is a graph combining Kvyat's data from Australia in various colors (the linear regressions belong to that), with Vergne's Monaco data in magenta. I omitted first, as that's where the data a few posts above came from. Ignore the trouble with 7th, he barely ever used it in Monaco, so the data is contaminated with gear shifts and braking events. And of course he never touched 8th in Monaco, but it is clear to see that there are no changes from 2nd to 6th indeed, and most likely to 7th. I'll keep an eye for changes in 8th, but apparently there is no reason to doubt Tobias Guener in this, and then there will be no changes.
This is actually very interesting, and in my opinion a bit bizarre. This single ratio change effectively counts as changing them all, right? While their current 8th gear will get them just fine even through Monza, did they get all other gears just right?
Does it really not matter at all? One would think that in this optimization oriented era there would be a little bit of optimization in the other gears with all the data accumulated...
So now it looks quite possible that teams without a Ferrari engine might very well not change at all. I still think that the ones with Ferrari engines will have to change before Spa to get the necessary top speeds. This also means that I'll have to go through the videos with a fine comb. I was expecting all ratios to change as a whole, which would be easy to spot, but since that's not the case... time to revisit that 5th gear from Williams, maybe it wasn't an error but another instance of changing a single ratio?
Edit: Nope, no change in the Williams, I confirmed my error in their 5th in Australia.
Rivals, not enemies.