will 2015 be a 2 horse race ?

[Vasconia]

Panic, blown open the dam, can't take the pressure, as good as Schumacher, can't drive without a radio in his ear ???? Please leave the psuedo psycho analysis in the gossip columns.

As we all know, it's the car that decides if this is a close championship or not. Attempting to compare drivers is as efficient as reading tea leaves or casting runes so please don't turn this into a diver leg hump (in the words of one complainant reported this thread)

I dont understand why we cant discuss about drivers mental strength, when this aspect is essential to achieve a great performance. What I say it that I have seen Hamilton being too nervous SOMETIMES, for example when Rosberg was puting some pressure on him, and the radio conversations between him and his engineer were a good example.

Just take a look how they manage those situations drivers like Raikkonen or Alonso and you will see the difference. Its not goosip its to analyze drivers behaviour under certain conditions and situations. We dont have many things to do it but radio conversations are one of them.

Its not about how great was Schumacher and how bad is Hamilton. Its about to comment that Hamilton has some weak points and this one could be one of them. He is a very emotional guy, which is good when he has a problem and he shows the character to make an awesome race, but sometines this characteristic is not good at all.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

Except hamilton is not on the same level as prime-schumacher.

how could you be able to judge that?

Hamilton, a driver than was nearly under a panic attack when Rosberg was behind him in some races (asking all the time to his engineer which the gap was). He is the fastest guy out there but I think that sometimes he is too nervous when he is under a constant pressure from another driver. Although he has improved a lot in this area.

Panicked... Nervous.... sounds more meaningful when they affect the performance. But if the driver just goes on to win the battle, these words lose their significance and are just left to the perception of the user of those words. I guess these words sound more meaningful in real time for Hungary, Spa, Sochi, Monza and USA, albeit for another driver.

[Facts Only]

I don't see why people are complaining about discussion of Hamilton and Rosberg's ability/mindset/pressures.

The question is will 2015 be a 2 horse race? and the original post alludes to Hamilton versus Rosberg. Its not a technical thread about Mercedes vs The rest, its just general discussion about how people see the title panning out.

I know this is a technical forum but there are plenty of threads about drivers and their abilities and trying to say that emotional mindset doesn't affect their speed/mistake rate is a non-starter.

All I was pointing out is that the pressure is now off Hamilton and firmly on Rosberg which anyone who has ever competed in or even watched any kind of motorsport (or any sport for that matter) knows will have an effect.

Personally I don't care either way as long as we have a good battle, I'm not a fan of anyone (I find the concept of 'fandom' I.E of hanging your own self worth and mood on the results some remote sportsman/team insane)

[Jolle]

]

Hamilton, a driver than was nearly under a panic attack when Rosberg was behind him in some races (asking all the time to his engineer which the gap was). He is the fastest guy out there but I think that sometimes he is too nervous when he is under a constant pressure from another driver. Although he has improved a lot in this area.

But we get far more team radio than we ever have done. Who's to say Michael didnt carry on more than anyone.on the radio. We hardly heard the radio back then so we cant compare.

plus, Schumachers teammates weren't allowed to overtake him

[GPR-A duplicate2]

]

Hamilton, a driver than was nearly under a panic attack when Rosberg was behind him in some races (asking all the time to his engineer which the gap was). He is the fastest guy out there but I think that sometimes he is too nervous when he is under a constant pressure from another driver. Although he has improved a lot in this area.

But we get far more team radio than we ever have done. Who's to say Michael didnt carry on more than anyone.on the radio. We hardly heard the radio back then so we cant compare.

plus, Schumachers teammates weren't allowed to overtake him

Interesting.... There are tons of videos of Michael fighting Hill, Villeneuve, Mika, Kimi, Montoya and Alonso. Were there team orders for Michael's team mates, also not to fight these guys? In 307 races that Michael did, how many times his partners were in close enough positions to race him or overtake him?

[lebesset]

Panic, blown open the dam, can't take the pressure, as good as Schumacher, can't drive without a radio in his ear ???? Please leave the psuedo psycho analysis in the gossip columns.

As we all know, it's the car that decides if this is a close championship or not. Attempting to compare drivers is as efficient as reading tea leaves or casting runes so please don't turn this into a diver leg hump (in the words of one complainant reported this thread)

I dont understand why we cant discuss about drivers mental strength, when this aspect is essential to achieve a great performance. What I say it that I have seen Hamilton being too nervous SOMETIMES, for example when Rosberg was puting some pressure on him, and the radio conversations between him and his engineer were a good example.

Just take a look how they manage those situations drivers like Raikkonen or Alonso and you will see the difference. Its not goosip its to analyze drivers behaviour under certain conditions and situations. We dont have many things to do it but radio conversations are one of them.

Its not about how great was Schumacher and how bad is Hamilton. Its about to comment that Hamilton has some weak points and this one could be one of them. He is a very emotional guy, which is good when he has a problem and he shows the character to make an awesome race, but sometines this characteristic is not good at all.

quite so ; if the forum wanted to stick to the strictly technical there shouldn't be a section called general chat

[evered7]

It will be one horse race IMHO. It was a fight to the end only because of the reliability being uncertain in the Merc camp. If all things were fine, Hamilton usually ended up on the top step.

Can see Hamilton winning this easily if Nico hasn't massively improved on his race pace.

[Phil]

IMO - to somewhat predict 2015, one has to analyze what exactly happened in 2014. This shouldn't be too hard, since the rules haven't changed significantly between 2014 and 2015, meaning we can probably expect much of the same - that being, Mercedes out at the front.

Lets think back to 2014:

1) Rosberg extremely strong in qualifying, especially dry conditions
2) Hamilton strong in wet qualifying
3) Hamilton better on fuel and tyre wear, which resulted in stronger race pace
4) Hamilton better at wheel-to-wheel racing (Hamilton made several moves stick on Rosberg, Rosberg AFAIR not even one)
5) Rosberg lead the WDC mostly throughout the year despite less wins (mental aspect)
6) Crucially, because of the Mercedes dominance and either driver finishing either 1st, 2nd or DNF makes finishing every race important
7) WDC went to the final race

I'm sure there are more to the 2014 season, but those are some of the major points that kept sticking for me. What I also keep wondering is how the WDC turned out, and how it could have turned out. We all remember well how the WDC went to the final race. IMO - this is part because Rosberg proved to be extremely strong not only in qualifying, but also in the races, because Mercedes was so utter dominant that they usually finished 1st or 2nd (meaning a +7 point advantage for the winner, which isn't all that significant) and that reliability and DNFs had a huge impact, meaning a straight 18-25 point loss (required 4 straight wins to turn around). This ment that with Hamiltons first DNF in Melbourne, his 4 consecutive wins ment that after the 5th race, he was only leading by 3 points, instead of potentially 35 (5*25 vs 5*18), or 21 (assuming he would have came 2nd in Australia to Rosberg). Either way, a 21 or 35 points lead could have been significant to both the psyche and consistancy of any driver. Having said that, if it weren't for that initial DNF in Melbourne, I do wonder if Rosberg would have continued to race as strong as he did to take the fight right up to the very last race. Would he have lost a bit of motivation, perhaps that edge that made him so strong in 2014?

Looking forward to 2015, I think it will be most interesting to see how reliability pans out for Mercedes this year. I think there's a good chance we will see less severe problems that caused a straight DNF and how much little problems impact the WDC race will surely depend on what the gap is to the next competitor. Last year was a brutal year for both Rosberg and Hamilton because it was effectively a two horse championship, with either maximum points, 2nd spot or a straight DNF. If the gap has narrowed to Mercedes and a team might be in contention of at least 2nd place on a regular basis, it could either mean the WDC race will be decided much earlier (see Vettel in 2011), or it might be closer if Rosberg and Hamilton are evenly matched.

Another crucial point in regards to 2015 will be how much stronger the Mercedes PU is compared to both the Ferrari, Honda and Renault. I firmly believe that Mercedes domination had a significant advantage because of it - meaning they could run more downforce yet remain quick on the straight, whereas pretty much everyone else had to run a compromised set-up where they were effectively trading off downforce for straighline performance. This has crucially also helped Mercedes with tyre wear. If that gap has decreased significantly and the PUs are more on equal footing (a bit of an IF), it will mean that aero will be a bigger factor. If this is the case, I would expect more struggle with tyre wear and closer battles, not only between the Mercedes team-mates, but also with other teams too. Tyre-wear could lead to an entirely different WDC race, depending on which driver can manage his tyres better. Maybe starting on pole will become more important.

It's going to be interesting. Maybe half of my post is going too far and in reality, 2015 will be pretty much a repetition of 2014. If it is, then I'll be very curious to see if less reliability problems might lead to a more one-sided affair. Much will depend on the focus of Hamilton and Rosberg and how strong Rosberg will remain in qualifying, but also if tyre-wear differences will lead to a bigger or smaller gap in race-pace.

If it isn't going to be a repetition of 2014, the big question for me is if Mercedes will be as dominant or if the potentially smaller gap between the PUs will lead to a much closer race.

[Jonnycraig]

The one convincing enough reason to why Rosberg will not become a total #2 driver is fairly simple: He is too strong in qualifying.

Rosberg is one of the very few, if not the only driver on the grid who can out-qualify Hamilton on a regular basis.

As long as Rosberg keeps beating Lewis on a regular occurrence over one lap, Lewis will always be on the back foot on race day, and his work will be cut out for him on Sunday (he made it work in Japan and USA, but failed to do in Brazil).

With the level of dominance Merc have, qualifying is rendered meaningless. Starting second is no disadvantage as you have a lovely shiny DRS button to glide past the leader if you are quick enough to stay on their tail. And lets be honest, Rosberg is a nice guy, quick over a lap, but he's not got the pace to hold off the DRS button.

[FoxHound]

DRS works both ways, as we've seen Hamilton and Rosberg use it to pass the other. To suggest qualifying second is an advantage because of DRS is well wide of the mark imo.
I'd say qualifying first is a bigger advantage because you get the strategic advantage of choosing your pit stop window before the 2nd driver. Not to mention grid advantage or the ability to defend the racing line.

If you lose position, and keep within DRS activation. .. role reversal and any advantage gained from being second evaporates.

[Jonnycraig]

Huge doseage of self interest as always, but fundamentally correct from Horner:

Red Bull boss Christian Horner is concerned Mercedes' power unit advantage over the rest of the field is putting fans off Formula One while only adding to the sport's financial problems

Since the end of last year, Horner has been pushing the idea of ripping up the engine rule book and starting again with the aim of creating a level playing field with cheaper engines.

"I think it's important we have good racing and obviously the closer the field is, the better the racing will be," he told City AM. "I think that's the most fundamental thing that fans appreciate. The power unit at the moment is a big performance differentiator. I think the gap between the best and the worst needs to be reduced, and that will automatically create closer racing."

Horner said the cost of the current engines is also the driving factor behind the problems smaller teams face at the moment but that F1 cannot agree on a solution.
"I think it's important that we get costs under control, that all teams are viable operating concerns," he added. "Obviously the power unit is a big cost-driver so that's an element that needs looking at with quite a bit of urgency. I think they're the fundamental things and that's in everybody's interests. I think there's a lot going on discussion-wise but, as always, we talk a lot without concluding as much as we should have done.

"The most important thing that we do collectively is look to try and address the current issues with the power unit in terms of the cost and the burden that's placing not just on the customer teams but also on the manufacturers themselves. So I think fundamentally that's the most important thing we need to look at in the very near future."

http://en.espnf1.com/f1/motorsport/stor ... TkVUfVd.99

Obviously the part about helping smaller teams out is lip service from Horner, but as said, the fundamental issue is correct, that the current engines are far too expensive, and with the rules as they are, Mercedes will clean up the WEC & WCC until the next large regs change.

Obviously for some this is a non-issue, but for FOM it is an issue.

[lebesset]

if horner had said 4 years ago that the aero regs should be changed to cut costs and take away our huge advantage i would be prepared to listen to him

[FoxHound]

if horner had said 4 years ago that the aero regs should be changed to cut costs and take away our huge advantage i would be prepared to listen to him

Bang on.

Horner is just playing politics. Red Bulls crushing aero advantage from 2010-13 cost other teams combined billions to attempt to replicate. At a time when engines could not make a real difference.
The red bull set up was aimed at those regs. Whereas other front running teams were not.

Another 3 more seasons Mr Horner, then its even

[Phil]

if horner had said 4 years ago that the aero regs should be changed to cut costs and take away our huge advantage i would be prepared to listen to him

The argument is an interesting one though. A PU vendor supplies up to 3 teams, so if the formula is very engine dominant (meaning; the engine is the biggest factor), it will influence not only the ranking of a single team, but potentially all 3 that particular engine supplier is supplying. Lets compare 2012 to 2014:

2010 (+/- equal PUs, aero factor huge):
1.) RedBull (Renault)
2.) McLaren (Mercedes)
3.) Ferrari (Ferrari)
4.) Mercedes (Mercedes)
5.) Renault (Renault)
6.) Williams (Cosworth)
7.) Force India (Mercedes)
8.) Sauber (Ferrari)
9.) Torro Rosso (Ferrari)

2011 (+/- equal PUs, aero factor huge):
1.) RedBull (Renault) --
2.) McLaren (Mercedes) --
3.) Ferrari (Ferrari) --
4.) Mercedes (Mercedes) --
5.) Renault (Renault) --
6.) Force India (Mercedes) +1
7.) Sauber (Ferrari) +1
8.) Toro Rosso (Ferrari) +1
9.) Williams (Cosworth) -3

2012 (+/- equal PUs, aero factor huge):
1.) RedBull (Renault) --
2.) Ferrari (Ferrari) +1
3.) McLaren (Mercedes) -1
4.) Lotus (Renault) +1
5.) Mercedes (Mercedes) -1
6.) Sauber (Ferrari) +1
7.) Force India (Mercedes) -1
8.) Williams (Renault) +1

2013 (+/- equal PUs, aero factor huge)
1.) RedBull (Renault) --
2.) Mercedes (Mercedes) +3
3.) Ferrari (Ferrari) -1
4.) Lotus (Renault) --
5.) McLaren (Mercedes) -2
6.) Sauber (Ferrari) --
7.) Toro Rosso (Renault) +2
8.) Williams (Renault) --

2014 (different PU, aero factor less)
1.) Mercedes (Mercedes) +1
2.) RedBull (Renault) -1
3.) Williams (Mercedes) +5
4.) Ferrari (Ferrari) -1
5.) McLaren (Mercedes) --
6.) Force India (Mercedes) +3
7.) Toro Rosso (Renault) --
8.) Lotus (Renault) -4
...
10.) Sauber (Ferrari) -4

These are seasons 2010 to 2014. What we see is that season 2010 to 2013 were rather constant in that teams rarely made big jumps. Mercedes might be a bit of an exception in 2013, but lets not forget that tyre unpredictability was a big influence. What we do see however is that engine PU was pretty much a non-factor. This makes sense, after years of frozen PUs. The much bigger factor were aero development and tyre wear (also dependant on downforce and therefore aero).

Come 2014 and suddenly we see some teams making huge jumps. Williams, from nowhere (they were 8th in 2013) came through to 3rd. Despite RedBull beating them to 2nd, I think Williams should have been 2nd, but in the races where they should have won, RedBull snatched it away through a bit of luck and better strategy. What also shines through here is the immense experience RedBull brings to every single season. In the same mentioning, Force India also made quite a jump, jumping ahead of its midfield contenders.

Also worth mentioning: Not a single Renault or Ferrari engined team made any improvement; They either stayed in their position or lost in the constructors to other contenders (mainly Mercedes engined ones).

Now, some say, it's only fair that after 4 years of utter Redbull aero dominance, it is time that the formula is changed to the point that aero is less dependant and engine performance is more of a factor. I agree... to a point. The thing that irks me at the moment a bit, is that the engine factor is potentially so big, that it is influencing not only a single team (the defacto works-team), but pretty much the entire grid. Because an engine supplier doesn't supply just one team, but multiple teams. In other words, from the point of Sauber - even if they had a better working car, there is absolutely no way they'd be competing further up the grid, because in 2014, the Ferrari PU was just no where. On the contrary, Williams, which I don't rate all that high in the chassis and aero department, made a huge jump, arguably because it precisely had a Mercedes PU. The engine factor is a bit similar to when we had to tyre manufacturers; Michelin and Bridgestone. In a time when aero and engine were similar, the tyre had a too big of an influence on the outcome, which, oddly had little to do with the teams experties and potential, but all to do with which tyres they were on.

I think the 'engine formula' we have now is a bit less problematic, because each engine manufacturer supplies multiple teams - *but* if it continues as it did in 2014, it may be problematic for the sport. If a team can't possibly compete irregardless how good the team is solely because it has the wrong PU in the back of the car, it will become and issue. Having said that, for the sport, it is important that the gap between the PUs narrow so that the team itself becomes a bigger factor in the actual outcome of the race. And IMO, it should - because the freezing of the engine (or artificially controlled development through tokens) should level the gap somewhat - hopefully. Don't get me wrong; I'm loving the Mercedes dominance at the moment, and I rate 2014 as one of the best seasons ever (thanks to Rosberg/Hamilton being so close), but looking past that, I do want teams to have more control over their performance on the track. It's important for the sport.

[cirrusflyer]

Last year was the first year of new regulations. Some did better than the others. It is normal that way. This year on the engine front things are getting closer (Ferrari less deficit to Merc, Renault getting closer midseason, Honda pretty close if there is to believe reports of experts and insiders).
After testing (I know testing is not representative of the real order) there were a lot of info about the pack behind Merc is really close (1 or 2 1/10). That is a promise for a good season.
Lets wait and see. If the season is going to be exciting I can wait another year for others to get closer. And I think and am positive that this might happen. If the rest cant catch Merc and there still will be big differences among teams, than go ahead and try something new.