I know that in F1 the contracts art worth their weight in gold, or any paper they are written on. But i hope VDG gets his seat as it sends a nice little warning shot to all the other teams who have been know to do what the hell with their drivers contracts to suit themselves.
As i see it VDG, NAS & ERI have Sauber over a barrel, as does the agreement with FOM. NAS is rumoured to be bringing €32m to the team, ERI with again a rumoured €28m, VDG deal was reported last year for €35m over two seasons, €8m in 2014 as a Test/FP1 driver and €22m as a Race Driver in 2015. VDG with McG was to bring an extra €5m in non financial support by suiting the team out in McGregor kit in 2014/2015. The drivers will bring Sauber €60m without VDG however that dips to €50m to €54m depending on who they have as their other driver over VDG.
Then the FOM question comes in, at present Manor are going to receive the £30m for P9 they gained last year for attending the first race. They can miss 3 races i agree, but missing the first race Sauber will no longer get the approximate £25m(€35.5m) they get for P10. Sauber, since 2012 have been operating on a budget that was the second lowest in F1 with about €90m, so with NAS/ERI and FOM, they get their money for the season plus €5m more. With VDG its up to €5m less that what they need. Manor last year operated on €85m for most of the season and were showing over a race distance they were on the pace with the Saubers till they went into Administration.
Any question on money is circumspect to me, its down to if Sauber want to honour a contract or not. They have clearly got two pay driver hot shoes in the cars at present. Its who they want to breach with, Van Der Garde could easily get a order, preventing Sauber from leaving the pitlane and that would breach all 3 drivers, heck he could easily do what happened in 2013 to the Lotus LMP2 team at Le Mans and send in Bailiffs into the team garage and seize parts that are crucial to the running of the cars like the steering wheels. However the Lotus case was about debts however. (
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/108143)
Van Der Garde has the team where he wants them, the safety aspect won't wash as he participated in FP1/Test sessions last year, he raced in F1 in 2013, he did FP1s in 2012 as well as GP2 races and is also a ex WSR3.5 Champion. Sauber can't bring that aspect into it. Toro Rosso and Manor are showing this isn't an issue with their lineups.
This thing aint finished yet. This will get messy, this probably won't end well for someone.