will 2015 be a 2 horse race ?

[SectorOne]

Reliability only really affected Lewis twice in qualifying (Germany and Hungary), taking both out of the equation it was still 10-7 in favor of Nico.

Season ended with 11-7,

Three possible outcomes,

11-7 - Rosberg takes both poles anyways
9-9 - Hamilton takes both poles
9-7 - You remove those two events from the list.

Then you´ve got maybe some events that´s not really indicative of pace because of the circumstances.

Monaco - maybe he did, maybe he didn´t.
Silverstone - Hamilton bailed for a last try.
Austria - spins while having showed he could have taken pole by around 3 tenths.

What we do know is that it´s way closer in Qualifying then most people would have guessed, even looking at 2013 it was very tight there too.
Which is good right? I quite like watching Q3 having no idea who will put it all together and take pole.

[Kingshark]

Actually, the season ended 12-7.

Hence;

12-7 if Rosberg takes both poles anyway.
10-9 in favor of Rosberg even if we assume that Hamilton takes both poles.
11-8 if we assume that Nico and Lewis take one each.
10-7 if we discount them completely.

Also, if you are going to exclude Silverstone and Austria because Lewis made mistakes, then remember how Nico was faster in Australia but nearly beached it.

Overall I agree that they are very evenly matched in qualifying, with Rosberg maybe having a slight edge in precision.

[Kingshark]

Also, for those who claim that Rosberg can't defend from Hamilton;

I recommend that you watch this video from 15:20 onwards:

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x1qeus ... rt-2_sport

Because that was some of the best defending I've ever seen.

[SectorOne]

Actually, the season ended 12-7.

Oh yea, i was thinking pole wise for some reason. Which is 11-7 with Massa taking one.

Also, if you are going to exclude Silverstone and Austria because Lewis made mistakes, then remember how Nico was faster in Australia but nearly beached it.[/quote]
Not exclude, just to think about if youre talking whos really fastest. Monaco and AUS invluded yes.

[Vasconia]

Also, for those who claim that Rosberg can't defend from Hamilton;

I recommend that you watch this video from 15:20 onwards:

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x1qeus ... rt-2_sport

Because that was some of the best defending I've ever seen.

Well the problem is not that Nico cant defend his position. The real problem is that when Nico is behind Lewis, he almost has never overtaken him(ALMOST). When Hamilton is behind Nico we all know that he can overtake him, not always, but yes at a high percentage.

[ChrisF1]

I read earlier that Rosberg failed to make an overtake on Hamilton stick at any point in 2014. (I presume this means failed to make it stick for more than a lap)

That is an incredible statistic if so considering how wheel to wheel it felt in 2014.

[Kingshark]

The only time I can recall Rosberg overtaking Hamilton and making it stick is Korea 2010.

Rather ironically, Webber ended up punting him off instead of Lewis a few laps later.

[PlatinumZealot]

Reliability only really affected Lewis twice in qualifying (Germany and Hungary), taking both out of the equation it was still 10-7 in favor of Nico.

As for tyres, I don't recall a single qualifying session in 2014 where Rosberg particularly struggled with tyres heating or getting them in the right operating window.

Rosberg is a real monster in qualifying, the only person to beat Lewis in equal cars around Montreal. It's the one area where I wouldn't confidently bet on LH.

Well, in terms of setup. Rosberg won't be able to heat the tyres up so easily in qualifying. He will come back down to earth.

[Kingshark]

Well, in terms of setup. Rosberg won't be able to heat the tyres up so easily in qualifying. He will come back down to earth.

What makes you think that Rosberg will struggle with tyre heating, but Hamilton won't? What indications are there from 2013-14 that would imply that Lewis heats his tyres quicker than Nico?

[PlatinumZealot]

Tyre construction causes more even heating this year. It means you you have to work the tyres a bit more to get them to heat up. It might weaken Rosberg's advantage in qualifying but it should help him in the race.

[Kingshark]

Tyre construction causes more even heating this year. It means you you have to work the tyres a bit more to get them to heat up. It might weaken Rosberg's advantage in qualifying but it should help him in the race.

Bets on for Q3 tomorrow?

[SectorOne]

Well, in terms of setup. Rosberg won't be able to heat the tyres up so easily in qualifying. He will come back down to earth.

What makes you think that Rosberg will struggle with tyre heating, but Hamilton won't? What indications are there from 2013-14 that would imply that Lewis heats his tyres quicker than Nico?

Rosberg seems to get heat into the tires better then Hamilton.

One example would be 2013 Monaco. Both Hamilton and Vettel could not get the temps up in the first corner so Rosberg had like 2-3 tenths on them up the hill.

Just one example but i think Rosberg is very very good at getting temps in the tires.

[PlatinumZealot]

Tyre construction causes more even heating this year. It means you you have to work the tyres a bit more to get them to heat up. It might weaken Rosberg's advantage in qualifying but it should help him in the race.

Bets on for Q3 tomorrow?

Australia Q3 is a bit of a shuffle.. I give it to Rosberg just because I want a good race for the win on Sunday.

[Kingshark]

I take everything I said back Rosberg was terrible today, kept making mistakes and choked under pressure in Q3.

[PlatinumZealot]

There is still the rest of the season.

Back to the main point: I knew mercedes would be in front but not by this much!