2015 Chinese Grand Prix - Shanghai, April 10-12

[psychemedia]

The problem with linear trendlines though is you can't see sudden dropoff (Hamilton) or initial dropoff then stabilisation (Raikonnen). If you can indeed read that much into the data. In any case I wouldn't expect tyre degradation to be linear.

Agreed. I was wondering whether a moving average (measured over the previous 3 laps, say?) might be a more useful way of looking at some of this lines?

[evered7]

Edit: I didn't consider that Rosberg might actually be able to do more laps courtesy of lesser fuel after the first stint. How much more exactly is the question.

You also need to consider that we have no idea how much fuel they have on the car in FP, The state of the tires at the start of the stint, or how much the track/ set-up will evolve through FP3 & qualifying.

Track evolution is going to be the same for all the racers I suppose? And won't they have mostly got the setup nailed down by now considering FP3 is mostly about getting the car ready for qualifiers (not fully aware of it though)?

Even considering that Rosberg might have used old tires, doing only 13 laps as compared to 19 by Ferrari with faster pace seems a reason for concern for Mercedes. They look good on pace on the softs though albeit with poor deg.

[ferkan]

Think Ferrari got this if they qualify top 4. Their race pace without tire degradation is very close to Merc, and when degradation comes into play they are just too good. They have too many options and I reckon girls and boys at Merc camp must be having headaches all weekend long knowing what kind of pace Ferrari has.

Add to that a fact that Sunday will be hotest day in a long time and we might have a race on our hands. Either way, cant wait!

[dans79]

Track evolution is going to be the same for all the racers I suppose? And won't they have mostly got the setup nailed down by now considering FP3 is mostly about getting the car ready for qualifiers (not fully aware of it though)?

It will be the same for everyone, but how it effects set-ups, is very variable. Even within a team, track evolution coupled with set-up tweaks can have drastic changes on how the car performs. Spain last year was a good example, Lewis lead the way in FP1 & FP2, and the team tweaked his set-up overnight. According to Lewis it hurt him and helped Nico.

Even considering that Rosberg might have used old tires, doing only 13 laps as compared to 19 by Ferrari with faster pace seems a reason for concern for Mercedes. They look good on pace on the softs though albeit with poor deg.

That's why I mentioned we don't know what the fuel load was. Was Nico or Kimi on a full fuel run simulating the first stint, or on a reduced fuel run simulating a second or 3rd stint. After a few more races we will get a much better understanding exactly where each team stands.

[SamH123]

I have been making FP2 plots for the races so far this year and posting them in the Autosport FPs thread
You can see them near the top of the page here:
http://forums.autosport.com/topic/19781 ... ead/page-5

I delete slower laps and replace them with the average of the laps before and after the deleted time

Looking at those charts again, they remind me of a race history chart, eg as per https://intelligentf1.wordpress.com/the ... tf1-model/ ?

Yes I think those charts are basically what I was going for.

I didn't really use any code, it was just a manual process in Excel. I typed up all the times from the FIA document, replaced slow laps using the average of the previous and next lap and then created a table of all the cumulative times (total time for 1/2/3/4/5/6 laps e.t.c.). Finally I subtracted the cumulative time of a car going some average speed.

Back to the race weekend, 7 tenths between 5th and 17th in FP3, will be close for Q3 even if not close for pole

[windwaves]

the story for me so far with the end of practices and Q about to start is as follows:

Ferrari confirms a significant recovery and second team after Merc - good
Williams confirms its struggles - bad
Renault, once again, seems to be working its away out of troubles - good
Mcl confirms the disastrous start of the Honda adventure - very bad (I want McL back in the fight, as a F1 fan, not a McL fan)

THe question going forward is: will Renault catch Ferr before Ferr catches Merc ?

Interesting…..

[komninosm]

Is there like another live timing site on the internet? Cause i hate the new layout

[jericho]

Wondering if Manor are oke to start this race if they don't get within 107%..

Hoping for a top 10 for Mclaren and for Max. Sauber is looking strong, so it will be tight for Q3!

[TheGkbrk]

Fernando looked slower than his teammate all weekend. First time I see him in such position.

[iotar__]

Fernando looked slower than his teammate all weekend. First time I see him in such position.

I'm not defending his performance (no need), Button was faster but with a car at such a low level all driver vs driver discussions are a bit pointless. Wasn't someone here (rather optimistically I thought) expecting McL Lotus fight?

[SectorOne]

This is where Mercedes free race tactics hurt them a bit.
In an ideal world they would have not went out again and saved the tire.
(ideal as in not in Rosberg´s best interest but for the team as a whole looking at the race)

[GPR-A duplicate2]

This is where Mercedes free race tactics hurt them a bit.
In an ideal world they would have not went out again and saved the tire.
(ideal as in not in Rosberg´s best interest but for the team as a whole looking at the race)

But the last set available, is free to use only in Q3 and they would start the race on Q2 tyres.

[SectorOne]

But the last set available, is free to use only in Q3 and they would start the race on Q2 tyres.

Hmm so if they had done one run only, that tire would count towards the race?

Meaning that in order to save a new set of tires in Q3 they would have to have three completely new tires for Q3?
(assuming they don´t do their pole time with a used set)

[GPR-A duplicate2]

But the last set available, is free to use only in Q3 and they would start the race on Q2 tyres.

Hmm so if they had done one run only, that tire would count towards the race?

As far as I know, there is one extra set available, which is only limited to use in Q3 and will not be available for Race. This was done to encourage cars to run more in Q3 and not sit out.

[Jonnycraig]

On a sidenote, how cringeworthy were the planted 'fans' with flags down the back straight.