Mclaren Honda 2015

[Vasconia]

I think 2015 is now a write-off for the team. The question for me is: will McLaren Honda be able to produce a competitive car-engine combination by the end of the season?

This is the idea, a great first step forward in Barcelona and smaller steps during the season, including a bigger one after the mid-season tests which sould give the chance to end the season in a good position to build a WC contender car in 2016.

[skoop]

is it known how many tokens honda will use for their b-spec pu? or are they "just" reliability upgrades?

[bauc]

is it known how many tokens honda will use for their b-spec pu? or are they "just" reliability upgrades?

Eirc was quoted saying new PU spec, whatever that means

[Andres125sx]

Maybe you´re right and I´m wrong, but IMHO assuming a F1 team is doing things without a proper planning is anything but reasonable

Mclaren do have form here though, in 2011 they spent all pre-season trying to get the fantail exhaust to work without damaging itself and didn't have a plan B until Australia FP1 when they abandoned the fantail for a conventional exhaust. In 2013 instead of using the MP4-27 or an evolution/B-spec of it they tried a clean sheet design that was slower than its predecessor until Hungary and Witmarsh did say to the media he considered bring back the '27 at one point but decided to try and see the '28 project through, and then they stopped development of that car after Monza anyway to focus on the MP4-29.

Mclaren can do some wonderful things, but they also do some inexplicably odd things too.

If you (as any of us) don´t understand what Mclaren is doing that does not mean McLaren is doing inexplicable things or they don´t have a proper planning, just that we don´t get it

Maybe they were starting the development of a new concept wich took them more time than planned, and today´s car (wich is being praised everywhere) is the result of that odd route they took in 2013 with the MP4-28.... or maybe not and they´re just idiots, but I wouldn´t bet for the second option

[Phil]

In regards to 2015 being a write-off...

IMO it depends. From Button's and Alonso's view - yes. They will not be challenging for the WDC this year, I think this much is guaranteed. For the team however, I don't think so. As someone has already pointed out in this topic, you have price money to consider. Money might be readily available at McLaren through their partnership with Honda, but it isn't infinite. More importantly, you also have sponsors to consider. They don't want McLaren finishing at the end of the grid. It would be important to show that the team and car is making big improvements to underline that 2016 will be different. Then there's also the point that McLaren-Honda is still void of any a major sponsor. You aint going to get a big sponsor if you completely drop of the grid because you're abandoning the current season that has just started. 2015 will be an important year for them - and every race is a potential training and testing ground where they can see directly in a like-for-like comparison how they are fairing relative to their competitors.

[acosmichippo]

I don't understand you people calling to give up on 2015 and focus on 2016. How do you expect them to design the mp4-31 without developing and gathering data from the mp4-30? Anything they put into the mp4-30 at this point is only going to help the next car. Maybe if it gets into September and they haven't been making progress I'd agree, but they've only done three races so far.

[Jef Patat]

I completely agree with that. What does giving up 2015 mean? Giving up on the title? How can they give up on that if the whole team has been stating that such a thing was going to be unachievable. It wasn't the goal so how can you give up on it? The goal is being competitive by the end of the year. That is a very broad statement and there's lots of time to fill it in. The progress they have made in only three races is big, remember that Magnussen almost fell out the 107% rule in the first qualifying, only two races later they almost made it into Q2.

[windwaves]

I completely agree with that. What does giving up 2015 mean? Giving up on the title? How can they give up on that if the whole team has been stating that such a thing was going to be unachievable. It wasn't the goal so how can you give up on it? The goal is being competitive by the end of the year. That is a very broad statement and there's lots of time to fill it in. The progress they have made in only three races is big, remember that Magnussen almost fell out the 107% rule in the first qualifying, only two races later they almost made it into Q2.

guys lets be reasonable here and "think" for a second ?

As I already said, nobody here is saying that McL should pack up and go home. Frigging obvious.

What I and I suppose many others are suggesting is that in light of where they are now, in light of having been unable to do any minimum testing during pre-season and hence the huge gap in terms of data, experience..everything, the focus for 2015 has to be reassessed because it cannot be the same as if they had been running ok (which does not mean challenging Merc right away for those with difficulities in reading). So strategic development for 2015 has to take a more long term bias since it is very unlikely that they will be able to bridge that massive gap now or next year. The ball game changed for MCL the moment they came to pre-season testing completely unable to put two laps together.

2016 will be the year when the team needs to start looking at points with a view to title hopefully the next two years my friends.

[Andres125sx]

So strategic development for 2015 has to take a more long term bias since it is very unlikely that they will be able to bridge that massive gap now or next year. The ball game changed for MCL the moment they came to pre-season testing completely unable to put two laps together.

2016 will be the year when the team needs to start looking at points with a view to title hopefully the next two years my friends.

I´m doing this comparison with qualifying times because they´re the most reliable, as in race it always depend on your strategy (option or prime for last stint, three or four stints attacking or taking care or your tires...)

And I´m comparing with 10th in Q1 as McLaren never reached Q2 and in Q1 fastest time from Mercedes is not representative of their pace because they don´t need to push, but 10th usually has to push much more so that´s a more representative time to compare with McLaren

In Melbourne Jenson was 1.575 seconds behing 10th in Q1, in Sepang it was 1.296 on a track where power is very important, and in China he was 0.335 behind 10th

We´re not seeing position improvement because they were so slow compared to the rest than improving 1.5 seconds was not enough to improve positions, but right now they´re really close to the midfield group, and that group is pretty tight, so if they improve only half a second more, they´ll be into Q3

And this is comparing qualifying times, when McLaren is a lot more competitive in race than in qualifying, because they still can´t use special mappings for qualifying, so I expect to see a big step forward for them in Barcelona, not only in fastest laps compared to the rest as we´ve been seeing until now, but also in positions, both in qualifying and in race, because they´re just behing the group

So I really think they will be scoring points consistently from Barcelona, and they still have 3/4 of the championship to continue the improvement. Then we´ll have to wait and see what´s their real limit, as today nobody know what´s the real limit of that engine and car, not even McLaren and/or Honda, so I wouldn´t bet they´ll be fighting with Ferrari or Williams at the end of this season, but I wouldn´t discart it either. They´re only one second behind, and considering they´re racing with a castrated PU it may be posible when they finally can use it to its max

[hollus]

Also their apex speeds are quite good, it is just power. Once they find it (if they find it) I expect them to be at or near the top.
These are some apex (well, minimum in corner, speeds) from China taken from various onboard videos:

Alonso in laps 2 and 3 of the race, with a full tank and in traffic and often taking compromised lines:

77 71 69 200 141 98 77 95 52 131
81 78 63 202 140 99 76 95 54 131

And this is from Alonso later in the race in clean air (no idea if he was pushing or of the tire's condition)

-- -- 72 217 139 96 78 97 58 ---

For comparison, from later points in the race and with no pressing traffic:
Vettel

73 81 77 --- --- -- -- -- -- 135
77 81 67 210 141

Kimi

75 74 66 209 132 98 79 90 58 130

Ricciardo in heavy traffic with compromised lines:

78 69 -- --- --- -- 81 93 55 126

Hamilton (the Mercedes seem to be really up in downforce!)

-- -- - 215 147 104 83 96 60 139

I am not sure of the fuel loads for most of these laps, but I think Alonso's figures show that there is nothing wrong in the downforce department, remember that the first are from a heavier car stuck behind cars that looked like snails through these corners, he would literally run into them at every corner.

Edit:
...and just that very second, Kynei posts this graph in another thread:

That's Alonso's Q1 vs Hamilton's Q1 in china. True, Hamilton probably wasn't pushing to the maximum, but apex speeds are almost a carbon copy. They lack power and only power (IMHO).

[Miguel]

Edit:
...and just that very second, Kynei posts this graph in another thread:
http://i.imgur.com/fgZP7HV.png
That's Alonso's Q1 vs Hamilton's Q1 in china. True, Hamilton probably wasn't pushing to the maximum, but apex speeds are almost a carbon copy. They lack power and only power (IMHO).

Just for the record, Mercedes was the only team to make it past Q1 on the harder tyre compound, so McLaren is missing more than just plain power. I do however share the feeling that's where the biggest difference lies right now.

[davidfroshanzen]

So strategic development for 2015 has to take a more long term bias since it is very unlikely that they will be able to bridge that massive gap now or next year. The ball game changed for MCL the moment they came to pre-season testing completely unable to put two laps together.

2016 will be the year when the team needs to start looking at points with a view to title hopefully the next two years my friends.

I´m doing this comparison with qualifying times because they´re the most reliable, as in race it always depend on your strategy (option or prime for last stint, three or four stints attacking or taking care or your tires...)

And I´m comparing with 10th in Q1 as McLaren never reached Q2 and in Q1 fastest time from Mercedes is not representative of their pace because they don´t need to push, but 10th usually has to push much more so that´s a more representative time to compare with McLaren

In Melbourne Jenson was 1.575 seconds behing 10th in Q1, in Sepang it was 1.296 on a track where power is very important, and in China he was 0.335 behind 10th

We´re not seeing position improvement because they were so slow compared to the rest than improving 1.5 seconds was not enough to improve positions, but right now they´re really close to the midfield group, and that group is pretty tight, so if they improve only half a second more, they´ll be into Q3

And this is comparing qualifying times, when McLaren is a lot more competitive in race than in qualifying, because they still can´t use special mappings for qualifying, so I expect to see a big step forward for them in Barcelona, not only in fastest laps compared to the rest as we´ve been seeing until now, but also in positions, both in qualifying and in race, because they´re just behing the group

So I really think they will be scoring points consistently from Barcelona, and they still have 3/4 of the championship to continue the improvement. Then we´ll have to wait and see what´s their real limit, as today nobody know what´s the real limit of that engine and car, not even McLaren and/or Honda, so I wouldn´t bet they´ll be fighting with Ferrari or Williams at the end of this season, but I wouldn´t discart it either. They´re only one second behind, and considering they´re racing with a castrated PU it may be posible when they finally can use it to its max

I think you should also look at race pace of McLaren in, beginning of the race I saw he was still lagging more than 1 second perlap from midfield

[davidfroshanzen]

I think you should also look at race pace of McLaren in, beginning of the race I saw he was still lagging more than 1 second perlap from midfield

[hollus]

Oooopps, my bad. Miguel is of course right. Mercedes's lap in the graph is bound to be on a harder compound. In the few corners I looked at in the race Mercedes had superior apex speeds to Ferrari, but my point has now become very shaky

[Jef Patat]

What I and I suppose many others are suggesting is that in light of where they are now, in light of having been unable to do any minimum testing during pre-season and hence the huge gap in terms of data, experience..everything, the focus for 2015 has to be reassessed because it cannot be the same as if they had been running ok (which does not mean challenging Merc right away for those with difficulities in reading). So strategic development for 2015 has to take a more long term bias since it is very unlikely that they will be able to bridge that massive gap now or next year. The ball game changed for MCL the moment they came to pre-season testing completely unable to put two laps together.

That sounds like chicken project management. Project management in R&D counts for mishaps. They admitted not of the size of pre season testing and then what? They can do a lot about it, throw more resources at it, shift resources, start working on stuff that you'd normally start only after certain verification, be more aggressive. How can we assess all that? It's an evolving process for sure, but you don't change the long term goals that quickly, we've only had three races.