dans79 wrote:Phil wrote:
This year though - I think Hamilton will do better (relative to him last year). Last year was still fresh with the new tyres - this year, I think they are more predictable. I think their pace will be more similar, so the guy on pole will have an advantage.
I think last year Lewis was still trying to figure out how to deal with Nico analyzing and duplicating everything he did. This year Lewis is either hiding what he is doing better, or Nico just can't duplicate it.
Lewis has actually learnt from Nico this year for qualifying. Nico is very good at optimising the settings of the car for each and every corner for qualifying. He uses practise sessions, especially P3, to tune the diff and brake balance settings, braking points, braking shape, lines and throttle application based on grip levels in P3. Then he and his engineers make an estimation for small track evolution and temperature changes for qualifying and then he continues to fine tune this during qualifying sessions. i.e they work out a very close baseline based on practise session and then tune that according to the conditions at the time. There is a lot of data that can be gathered about track friction co-efficients etc based on suspension loads etc. The big advantage for qualifying is that other variables that come up during race day are minimised, such as fuel weight going down, which changes car balance; taking different lines to keep maximum possible speed without damaging tyres while in another car's dirty air; changing braking points, braking shape, lines and throttle input to conserve fuel as required or alternatively push when required.
In 2014, while Lewis also played around with settings during qualifying, he never optimised it to this level. Instead he drove qualifying closer to how he drives race day. By the feedback from the steering wheel and by the seat of his pants.
Come race day, the seat of the pants style worked better for Lewis as the track evolution changes rapidly, fuel levels go down, car balance changes, comes across traffic, managing fuel etc. So all memorised set parameters for each corner that Nico held for qualifying was of no advantage and in fact a hindrance as he had prepared the weekend relying more on settings and memorising than feeling the car.
This year it seems Lewis has realised this and his qualifying has improved but what is noticeable is that he is far more active on the steering wheel during qualifying. He is doing what Nico is doing, changing brake balance and diff settings for each corner. Come race day, he can still drive his natural seat of the pants style.
Only time will tell but I think qualifying will be close this year, provided both drivers get their practise sessions in each race weekend without problems. I think Nico will edge out Lewis in qualifying in Bahrain again as Nico is very good at this track.