2015 Bahrain Grand Prix - Sakhir

[Kovac_]

It is true that here in Bahrain, Ferrari is near, more than in China. For the layout of the circuit.
But then, I believe there is something wrong when you analyze FP2 race pace:

If I'm correct, you all believe MER is better in genuine pace and can suffer of thermal degradation as we saw in Maylasia.
We didn't notice it from FP2 race pace. There is NO degradation during Rosberg stint in SOFT (HAM was in MEDIUM). His second lap is 1.40.097, his 11th lap is 1.40.048. Bare in mind we need 18-20 laps per stint in S during the race.
Therefore can we assume that is correct to say FER has a better race pace than MER as genuine speed since FER has ben better than MER since lap1 (therefore no degradation involved) in race simulation? I don't think so!
If you compare ROS to BOT in their S stints, you will see BOT, in his initial laps, has the same pace of ROS. (1.40.0). Do you all believe WIL and MER has the same race genuine pace? I don't think so!
Furthermore, we don't have an HAM simulation in S, i want you to remember that RAI and ROS were equally matched during their medium stint in FP2 in China and I believe we can all agree that MER had a big advantage there in China in particular when it came to medium tyres.
So my conclusion is: Ferrari is near, more than in China and as per China FP2 where they were matched in pace in FP2, here consequentially FER seems to have a better race pace, but this is not true for the reasons I stated above.

Of course it will be close, but I don't see the same kind of opportunites, in normal race condition, that we had in Malaysia and I want to quote Hembery about it:

The emphasis of rear tyre management is placed on pure traction at this track, with less concern about the lateral cornering forces that are more prevalent at Sepang.
"Some of our guys wanted to come here with the super-soft - it [Sakhir] is more akin really to a street circuit from some points of view; in a way Abu Dhabi is too: smoother surfaces, braking loads, traction - characteristics you tend to see in street circuits.
"Here if we had raced in the daytime in 55C then you would have probably had a Malaysian-type situation with some teams doing a two-stop and some needing to do three, simply because the thermal effects would have been so dramatic.
"It [the track temperature] dropped from 55C to 35C [from practice one to practice two]. Today you sat outside you were sweating, now [in the evening] you could put a jacket on!"
Hembery's point about the tyre compounds is crucial. Given the conditions we are likely to see on Sunday, only use of the super-soft and soft tyres would likely introduce the sort of strategic variation that could have given Mercedes a serious headache at this race. A more conservative choice from the tyre supplier should play into the hands of those operating the silver cars.

[atanatizante]

Us clever formula 1 watchers wont even entertain the thought that Hamilton overused his race tyres in Q2.... Hamilton is no idiot. He has been biasing his car toward the race ever since Spa 2014. He has at least 8 tenths of hidden pace in his pocket.

After Q2 he was suprised at the gap to the rest of the field and he actually turned it down for Q3. Didn't you all see the pole lap video?! The boss didnt even take any curbs when vettel was riding on the white line pretty much every where on the limit. This is not even a contest. It is obvious to me or anyone with trained eyes that Hamilton sandbagged that Q3..... Ham was all smiles in the press conference. Smiling because he fooled all of you.

TL:DR Hamilton has 8 tenths in his pocket and he is walking the race tomorrow!

Yeah, here I'm with you bro' coz both Lewis and Nico (not to mention high people management ) didn't seem to be a bit worried looking at their attitude but most of all their non verbal postures.

It's clear they are sandbagging coz last year they have had at least 2 sec per lap in their pokets judging after Lewis and Nico battle times and the rest of the pack.

And with the same track conditions and almost the same tyres I don't think that A) Ferrari have found more than 2 sec a lap from last year but most of all the second reason B) W06 is worse than W05

Maybe they don't have 8 tenths per lap rather I go for at least 4 or 5 thents, but due to their life preserving tactics in the first 2 stints (beeing both on softs) they won't show that pace just for a lap or two before the pit stop in order to build a gap, something like Lewis did in China ...

So in this regard the race could be more like China, IMHO, with Nico doing the same thing above mentioned just to pass Seb, coz even if he has some 4km/h more down the straight he wouldn't try to pass in order not to ruin his soft tyres.

The only unknown factor is when this could occur : at the first or at the second pit stop.
But knowing the medium tyre is almost 2 sec. slower I think it's the first one.

And another factor is the SC phase but most of all when it'll occur, coz I think there will be at least one ...

[Andres125sx]

I can't see them walking it. Their pace was substantially down on Ferrari's in practice (Ferrari running in the mid 1:39s, and Mercedes in the low 1:40s). Honestly, I'd be surprised if someone other than Vettel won tomorrow.

Sorry man, but that was my sincere reaction to your post

I´m not saying Mercedes has 8 tenths on their pocket as Platinum (that would put Rosberg on a compromised position), but Mecedes has been sandbagging all the weekend. To be more precise, they have been conserving tires. It´s a nosense wasting tires on 45º track when race will be at around 25 or 30 degrees as much. It brings nothing more than uncertainties to the team, if you see you have problems at that temp you´re tempted to do something to solve it, when that would be completely useless for a race wich will be disputed on completely different conditions

FP1 and FP3 are absurd, a complete waste of time and tires. Even Alonso said they should only test new aero parts and stop wasting tires because they´ll learn nothing on those conditions.... with the necessity they have to increase mileage!! Imagine Mercedes who does not have that need

Also, as more members pointed out, Mercedes has been doing the same regulary, they never show their real pace until it´s necessary

[Edax]

!

Yeah, here I'm with you bro' coz both Lewis and Nico (not to mention high people management ) didn't seem to be a bit worried looking at their attitude but most of all their non verbal postures.

It's clear they are sandbagging coz last year they have had at least 2 sec per lap in their pokets judging after Lewis and Nico battle times and the rest of the pack.

And with the same track conditions and almost the same tyres I don't think that A) Ferrari have found more than 2 sec a lap from last year but most of all the second reason B) W06 is worse than W05

Maybe they don't have 8 tenths per lap rather I go for at least 4 or 5 thents, but due to their life preserving tactics in the first 2 stints (beeing both on softs) they won't show that pace just for a lap or two before the pit stop in order to build a gap, something like Lewis did in China ...

So in this regard the race could be more like China, IMHO, with Nico doing the same thing above mentioned just to pass Seb, coz even if he has some 4km/h more down the straight he wouldn't try to pass in order not to ruin his soft tyres.

The only unknown factor is when this could occur : at the first or at the second pit stop.
But knowing the medium tyre is almost 2 sec. slower I think it's the first one.

And another factor is the SC phase but most of all when it'll occur, coz I think there will be at least one ...

If Ferrari has much more tire longevity then they could try to cut the first stint so short that Hamilton cannot follow and force them to forfeit first place. It is possible if they get a clean gap at the back. I think Mercedes rather give up first place than run out of tires at the end of the race. Ferrari seems more willing to take that risk in that respect.

For Rosberg the start seems crucial. He's not in a good place mentally at the moment, and we have seen him botch starts before under pressure. With two fast cars behind him, Bottas who is a fast starter and Raikonnen who is very good on the brakes in the first corner he might find himself further down the pack after the first corner. That is provided that his car is still one piece since neither driver behind him is afraid to use a bit of muscle.

[Andres125sx]

If Ferrari has much more tire longevity then they could try to cut the first stint so short that Hamilton cannot follow and force them to forfeit first place. It is possible if they get a clean gap at the back.

I wonder how that may be possible... They´d need to be 2 seconds/lap faster to get a clean gap and avoid traffic

I´d rather do the contrary, increase first stints with option tires so they can use prime for a lot less laps than Mercedes, so they may try a strategic overtaking when germans put prime tires but they still are running options wich are much faster. And if unable, increase that stint again so they only need to do some few laps with primes. This way they´ll be on a much better condition than Mercedes tires to try passing Lewis

Obviously that´s supposing Ferrari and Mercedes have similar pace, if not any strategy is useless

[Jonnycraig]

TL:DR Hamilton has 8 tenths in his pocket!

he is walking the race tomorrow!

Most likely. The Merc is still easily the best package out there.

[Traction]

The Merc dominated last season on tracks of all types, high downforce, low downforce, traction limited - you name it. This car had the widest operating window of any car, the car is a beast !

Ferrari make a big step and start closing in and you seem to think that it's because the Merc is highly strung, ridiculous.

+1 =D>

Ferrari have made massive strides but catching Lewis in that Merc is still a long way off. As good as Vettel is in the Ferrari there is no way to catch Lewis in pure racing terms let alone passing him.You can only do so much with what you have. It will have to be left to strategy during the race. Of course, I would love to see me proven wrong but realistically I can't see it happening.

[atanatizante]

...
... increase that stint again so they only need to do some few laps with prime.
...

+1

Spot on dude!
I think that's the winning strategy had Vettel needs to win the race, bearing in mind that delta time between soft and medium is on average 2 secs per lap and delta time between Merc vs. Ferrari pace on medium tyres is somewhere in the range of 5 to 7 tenths per lap.

Therefore if we do the maths Vettel need to strech both first and second stints on options with at least 10 to 12 laps so in the first stint he need to do 4 or 5 more laps than Merc drivers and on the second 5 to 7 more ...

Okay you could say that delta time between used softs and newer ones could nullify that streched stint but here we could see a very low wear so they could try it ... and not to mention that having a longer stint he could go in free air rather than traffic like Merc drivers could be most probably ...

And of course that's a big unknown factor called SC and I can't predict who could be affected more ... any thoughts regarding this matter?

[Phil]

Are we assuming that the optimum will be OOP? Can Mercedes achieve that or will they need to do OPP? I gather due to lower track temps and rubbered in track, OOP should be easily doable?

[Andres125sx]

And of course that's a big unknown factor called SC and I can't predict who could be affected more ... any thoughts regarding this matter?

impossible to say, it may benefit anyone depending on the exact lap it is deployed

[Juzh]

Are we assuming that the optimum will be OOP? Can Mercedes achieve that or will they need to do OPP? I gather due to lower track temps and rubbered in track, OOP should be easily doable?

One would assume so. In theory..

[Juzh]

[djones]

No team can afford to do more than one stint, or even a long stint on the harder tyre. It's so slow any gains from no pit stop are gone in nearly 10 laps.

Hamilton will slowly, in a controlled way drive off. He will go longer than Ferrari on the same tyres and everybody will be like "I wasn't expecting that". But its obvious.

When Ferrari won it was a complete mess up my Mercedes and a specific set of circumstances. Ferrari fans took that as hope, but its false.

SC aside this one is easy for Hamilton.

What I do hope for though is a fight between the Ferrari's and Rosberg. He in in the better car, but his head is not in it at all and I think that probably is enough for him to lose to at least one of them. Fingers crossed.

[Just_a_fan]

I was wondering about the head wind on the start/finish straight. If it is still as windy as it was in qualifying, will the wind create problems for mid field cars? The effect of a head wind is to give the car more downforce and hence grip at a given road speed. A car following another in to that headwind will be quicker (because of the tow) but at the point where they start to brake it's possible that the following car is caught out and hits the back of the front car as the front car will be able to brake a bit harder. I know that they're used to braking when in the tow of another car but I wonder if inexperienced drivers might not factor in the wind's affect.

Is this a real issue? If it is, we could see a first corner incident caused by it and a subsequent first lap safety car. "Head wind decides race result" would be a bizarre head line for the following day...

[Jonnycraig]

Hamilton will slowly, in a controlled way drive off. He will go longer than Ferrari on the same tyres and everybody will be like "I wasn't expecting that". But its obvious.

Is it obvious? They haven't managed in the last 3 races to out stint Ferrari, so it's pretty unlikely here...

Vettel & Raikonnen will likely be bottled up behind Rosberg after T1 though so not close enough to do anything.