Sevach wrote:" At this point, it wasnt clear that the actual safety car would come out and bunch the field up. At this point, Ros was 10 seconds ahead of Hamilton - the gap to Raikoennen massive."
That was your justification for why wasn't stupid for Rosberg to forgo soft tires and worry only about covering Hamilton...
Please tell me what i'm reading wrong, because i read you saying it made sense for Rosberg to forget the Ferrari's and worry about Hamilton exclusively.
You're reading it slightly out of context. Let me rephrase it, a bit differently.
The optimal strategy for Rosberg would have been: OPO. For that to work, the goal was to have a longer stint on the prime tire, then go short and fast on the option for the last stint. Pitting under a safety car, even a virtual safety car, is beneficial, so when there is one, you do it, because the time penalty is smaller. The problem however was that the [virtual] safety car phase came too early for the 'ideal' OPO strategy to work. Assuming the safety car phase would end in 2-3 laps (it was only a virtual safety car at that point), they changed it too OPP because the prime would get to the end easily. If they had known the safety car would be deployed and the race only continue at the earliest lap 47, OPO would have worked and would have been the right tire to be on. I'm not even going to talk about Raikoennen at this point, as by then, it was already clear he had ERS issues and that he would fall behind.
This has no bearing on the talk we're having now about the relative performance of both Ferraris and Mercedes.
Sevach wrote:We know Vettel was faster than Rosberg the entire race, stint 1, obviously stint 2, and even stint 3.
Yes even stint 3, although much closer than on the previous stints, on tires that push the balance towards a Mercedes a bit, Rosberg couldn't stay in Vettel's DRS zone and was dropping back.
No he wasn't.
From the fia site:
http://www.fia.com/events/fia-formula-1 ... ormation-9
Gaps between Vettel and Rosberg:
Lap 47: Gap 1.677 (with Kimi in between)
Lap 48: Gap 1.247 (with Kimi in between)
Lap 49: Gap 1.266
Lap 50: Gap 1.221
Lap 51: Gap 1.417
Lap 52: Gap 1.239
Lap 53: Gap 0.888
Lap 54: Gap 1.078
Lap 55: Gap 1.290
Lap 56: Gap 1.370
Lap 57: Gap 1.444 (Gap to Ricciardo under 2 seconds)
Lap 58: Gap 1.274
Lap 59: Gap 1.288
Lap 60: Gap 1.231
Lap 61: Gap 1.310
Lap 62: Gap 1.018
Lap 63: Gap 1.425
Lap 64: Collision Ric & Ros
Seems very consistent to me, despite Ricciardo continuously closing up to Rosberg. In fact not less consistent than when Hamilton was following Ricciardo midway through the race, couldn't get by, but eventually pulled it off and started to drive off in to distance. The dirty air is masking the performance that the Mercedes clearly had, even in Rosbergs hands when both were on the prime tire.
Anyway - this is what James Allen posted on his blog:
James Allen wrote:For Mercedes, the Hungarian GP was still potentially winnable at this stage; as Hamilton was the fastest car on track when running in clean air.
First stint:
Vettel started doing mid 1.28s, which improved to low 1.28s. Hamilton in traffic was doing 1.30s. When in clear air, Hamilton was doing 1.27.7 - 1.27.9 (lap 16, lap 17, lap 18), while Vettel at that point was doing 1.27.9, 1.28.2, 1.28.7. On average losing 5 tenths per lap. At this point, Ferrari couldn't be sure what Mercedes was doing.
Another example:
When Vettel pitted for options for his medium stint (lap 22), he was doing 1.27.3s on new tires. That gradually increased to high 1.27s. When Hamilton was in clear air (lap 29 +), he was doing low 1.27s on, at that point, older tires (he came in lap 20) and ones that were likely compromised by having to drive in dirty air and overtake aggressively. At that point, Vettel had no reason not to push or use the tires according to their advantage.
We can disagree to agree on the premise that you think Ferrari didn't run their maximum pace, but neither did Mercedes (in the hands of Rosberg). And Hamiltons pace was compromised due to dirty air etc, but despite that, when he was in clear air, he showed a pace (on old compromised tires) that was faster than both Ferraris.