FoxHound wrote:Blackoutjulian wrote:FoxHound wrote:Race pace....not 1 lap qualy pace.
meh.... still think they will get an easy 1-2
Maybe, but rain is predicted at 3pm local time...ie start of the GP.
Rain will only further push the result in Mercedes direction. they appear to be running more downforce so are owning in S2, if it rains that will further exaggerate the gap not reduce it.
Fp2 isn't even slightly representative, no teams will run 100% or push that hard, it's all about having a pre-existing load of data, knowing how much faster, how much faster tires will degrade and using that to work out final times from practice times. Thing is every team chooses differently. One team drops to 93% engine power, another drops to 95%, one team drops 20kg of fuel, another drops 10kg.
Ferrari have over and over again looked close in FP2 and been way behind in the race. The chances of Ferrari being competitive on mediums in the race while being slower on the soft tire than Merc on the mediums in qualifying is extremely low. Qualifying is a far better comparison between cars performances. When Ferrari are close on pace in race they are usually only at most a 2-3/10ths behind the Mercedes in qualifying.
Anything can happen in any race as Kimi showed in qualifying, midway through his qualifying lap someone teleported out his Ferrari engine and put a steam engine back in it's place as a prank
Realistically every single indication is that Mercedes are massively faster than everyone here with an extended gap compared to before the summer break. They likely won't show that pace often in the race. No point getting 30 seconds clear in 30 laps then having a safety car and the gap being down to under a second, you've burned more fuel and used more tires and then are at a disadvantage.
90% of the laps Ferrari have looked close to Merc this year it's been Merc managing their pace rather than Ferrari matching them.