l4mbch0ps wrote:Edax wrote:
It is a bit more complex than that.
First of all, zero failures is easier to achieve in reality than in theory. Proving zero failures requires per definition an infinite amount of tests. Therefore manufacturers are asked to demonstrate a certain failure probability. For instance the upper failure requirement for airplane batteries is one failure per billion flight hours. But nothing is ever certified for zero failures.
How can they ever certify something for that kind of lifetime? That's 114,000 years. There's no way they've demonstrated that kind of metric in any other way than theoretically.
There is multiple ways to get that kind of low probabilities
Say you have a heater which is safeguarded by a thermocouple and a mechanical temperature switch. The probability of the heater failing or the thermocouple or the switch failing is .001 then the probably of the heater catching fire is 0.0000001 as it requires a combined failure of all three. So you combine measurable probabilities into an immeasurable one.
Another method is if you can accelerate. Say you have a switch and it switches on average 2 times a day. If you take 30 seconds for a switch it only takes you 6 hours to simulate one year of usage. Or you use an overstress, overtemperature etc.
And 114000 years sounds like a lot, but if you spread it out over a production series of thousands it is not that much.
I can't be the only one that thinks it's a conflict of interest, that Pirelli is the one who investigates tire issues. Several drivers have said as much.
It is not that uncommon. For an investigation you need the right equipment and the right knowledge. For highly specialized products that is sometimes only found at the manufacturer. Conflicts of interests are then disarmed by having representatives of the different parties (lawyers, (hired) specialists) on site involved in the investigation.
Also you have to consider that if this is a design problem, Pirelli would like to know and to solve it. Say they falsely conclude that it was not a tire problem, and the next race a serious accident happens. Better to come clean now.