Rob W, the initial
estimates of the actual sum McLaren will have to find are $65 - 70M, but that of course doesn't change the total amount.
That the team shone a light on Renault in the past few days was perhaps part desperation, part tactics. The French team has shown overt interest in Alonso's services and while he spared himself of punishment by "volunteering" information (Lewis apparently didn't even have such information to volunteer) he put himself in a position to make a move. By associating Renault with the scandal, McLaren effectively made his only viable option too risky to contemplate. That's playing hardball.
The problem is how this was achieved ... if some reports are right, McLaren implicated their former engineer with taking three discs of Ferrari technical information with him to Renault. Subsequently Renault was alledged to have modified some of their cooling and electronics solutions. It only takes a second to put two and two together and see a potential domino effect here. Once the FIA investigates Renault, they could also face losing their constructor's points and a hefty fine. No wonder Flavio was seen at McLaren facilities during Monza. It's also problematic for McLaren to explain (if the reports about the Renault connection are verified) how they came to know this, but didn't know about Ferrari documentation's whereabouts or use in their own team ...
Also, with Hamilton apparently standing on much safer ground when it comes to this scandal, if Alonso decides to leave McLaren nonetheless it will be much easier for the team to take this WMSC decision to the International Court of Appeal. Such an action risks an even worse punishment, but importantly the ICA can also overturn the drivers' immunity, something that definitely is against Alonso's interest in the driver market.
Here's an interview with Dennis and Whitmarsh:
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/62320
Even they have to wait for the grounds of the decision to be released. David Coulthard, meanwhile keeps a level head in all this:
http://www.itv-f1.com/Feature.aspx?Type=David_Coulthard