2015 Singapore Grand Prix - 18-20 September

[DCM]

No. What I'm saying is that other teams may have withheld exploring lower PSI on grounds of safety and instead sought clarification from the FIA on weather running arguably unsafe pressures as Mercedes (assuming Mercedes are even doing this) was ok even if not specifically disallowed by the rules. If the FIA clarified that it is OK as written, safety aside, then everyone else could be compelled to exploit. Ferrari for example or Red Bull. Check out the quail results.

They are not allowed to run unsafe pressures though. The procedure has been updated so you are required to have the pressure above or on the minimum value when sat on the grid at tyre warmer temperature within the window they have confirmed. This limit will ensure all teams are firmly above that in the races when the tyres get up to optimum temperature.

As i said above, Mercedes ran well within the limit at Monza and were considerably higher than the minimum in the race, which doesn't support this.

Finally I can't really believe that you think Ferrari are 1.5 seconds quicker than Mercedes when they drop their pressures and they've been on the verge of a 2 second time gain for all this time. Utter nonsense.

We're talking about qualifying though and the final qualifying set in this case. The race is a whole different animal and is preceded by a formation lap as well as plenty of time in tire warmers.

Forget Monza, I'm only talking about qualifying here since that the only even we currently see this gap. Mercedes according to them, are doing everything they do normally even the pressures (yet we have an abnormal gap discrepancy in lap times). If nothing changed at Mercedes to move them backwards, one has to explore the possibility that the rest went forward. But how?

I'm suggesting they all ran low psi on their quail set knowing the FIA will not care.

[Jordan44]

No. What I'm saying is that other teams may have withheld exploring lower PSI on grounds of safety and instead sought clarification from the FIA on weather running arguably unsafe pressures as Mercedes (assuming Mercedes are even doing this) was ok even if not specifically disallowed by the rules. If the FIA clarified that it is OK as written, safety aside, then everyone else could be compelled to exploit. Ferrari for example or Red Bull. Check out the quail results.

They are not allowed to run unsafe pressures though. The procedure has been updated so you are required to have the pressure above or on the minimum value when sat on the grid at tyre warmer temperature within the window they have confirmed. This limit will ensure all teams are firmly above that in the races when the tyres get up to optimum temperature.

As i said above, Mercedes ran well within the limit at Monza and were considerably higher than the minimum in the race, which doesn't support this.

Finally I can't really believe that you think Ferrari are 1.5 seconds quicker than Mercedes when they drop their pressures and they've been on the verge of a 2 second time gain for all this time. Utter nonsense.

We're talking about qualifying though and the qual set in the case. The race is a while different issue.

Forget Monza, I'm only talking about qualifying here. Mercedes according to them, are doing everything they do normally even the pressures (yet we have a significant gap discrepancy). If nothing changed at Mercedes to move them backwards, one has to explore the possibility that the rest went forward. But how?

I'm suggesting they all ran low psi on their quail set knowing the FIA will not care.

My thought is that their car's suspension does not like the curbs here, and this track is about having a good chassis, not a good engine. Their suspension setup is also too soft, meaning they aren't working the tyres and they're not heating. All of that has snowballed into a 1.5 second deficit. I don't think it's a coincidence that Mercedes had their smallest gap on the field last year here either. Only got pole by 0.2 seconds from that dog of a Ferrari.

The tyres are inflated with the supervision of Pirelli, who are the ones who requested this directive. Don't you think they would have told the FIA they're cheating this and we'd have heard about it? Anyway, your theory will soon be put to the test. If there is no sign of Merc's pace tomorrow in the race, you can forget this thought.

[Edax]

It's got to be tire pressures.

I can only speak of my experience with setting up bikes. When you have to negotiate a bumpy track with sharp corners there is basically two ways you can go.

1) you can reduce tire pressures
2) you you can work with the spring and dampers.

Lowering the tire pressures is relatively easy, even a difference of .1 bar gives you quite a bit of benefit over bumps and through corners. The downside is that you're sacrificing efficiency.

With the springs and dampers it is hard. Potentially you have a high gain, since you maintain top speed, but you only have a small window to get it working. Get it wrong and your bike might be perfect over one set of bumps, but the next set will sent your front wheel floating.

I think Mercedes has a suspension system which is different from the rest. I've been watching their cars quite a bit. And compared to others they have a lot of roll in corners, but under braking they have very little dive. Yet the front end looks planted. Its looks as stiff as the mclarens but it is not bumping around. They seem to do something different with their suspension than anyone else,

My guess is that they have some trickery with the suspension even after FRIC, which gives them a lot of advantage if they get it right, but is very hard to set up. And sometimes they simply can't get it working; like last year in Austria, or this year in Hungary.

Tires can play a role in that. Since they are forced to run higher pressures than last year, suspension becomes more dominant.

[DCM]

The tyres are inflated with the supervision of Pirelli, who are the ones who requested this directive. Don't you think they would have told the FIA they're cheating this and we'd have heard about it? Anyway, your theory will soon be put to the test. If there is no sign of Merc's pace tomorrow in the race, you can forget this thought.

Very true, if the Mercs are not competitive (taking into account the fact that they are running in traffic of course) then yeah the discrepancy likely lies elsewhere.

I think that Pirelli may not be fully in the know that the pressures are out of scope. The advantage is in quail which has been the Mercs strong point. Where the rest of the field had a chance to keep up with the Mercs in the race, quali has been a sure thing for the Mercs. Which is what makes this flop flop in time hap such a

It's single lap pace.

Does anybody know what the procedure for checking the pressures on the quali set of tires actually looks like? When is the quail set pressure taken/checked? Is it before or after they are used?

[PlatinumZealot]

The wrong "FRICS" and brake setup were installed for this race is my guess. Everything else is basically fully adjustable from race to race. The engine maps, the dampers, the ride height, even the wheelbase can be adjusted with a few simple parts you practically bring to every race. The only thing I can see that you can make a huge mistake in with not enough time to ship replacement parts in is the "FRICS" and possible the front hub assembly. Granted, it is not really FRICS any more, but those mechanisms they use to control the ride-height and response of the wheels were obviously not doing the job. In the Q3 on board you could see massive under-steer. By literally the second turn VEttel was already a meter ahead. Hamilton was fighting the under-steer the whole lap. That front contact patch is just not being worked hard enough. I think the whole upright and auxiliaries were possibly losing heat too fast... I don't know if some one can confirm if the wheel shrouding was changed.

[Shrieker]

@Edax,

Great post. Enjoyed that thoroughly. Coupled with the post above (I'm calling you, nsmikle), i think we have the culprit.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

It's amazing to see so many frogs of a new rain, jumping up and down with unbelievable levels of their own EXPERT explanations that hasn't helped anyone to understand what could be the situation with Mercs. I think the dummies at Merc are at shame, paddy, learn something here.
I am sure, it is a shock for Mercedes and their disbelief takes some time to get off so that they can then identify the root cause. Once again, a Ferrari to pick up the pieces when leaders of the championship err. Would they hold on in race OR does any of the bulls does something OR Mercs does a miracle? Exciting race ahead. @SectorOne, I am NOW up with my pop corn BARRELL

What a big departure for RB from Toro Rosso boys. In the second part of the season, TR was so close to RB and suddenly now, the gap is so wide. Great job from RB, showing why they still are the leaders of Aero.

[iotar__]

Hamilton (motorsport.com) "It’s not the set-up [that is the issue], we’ve had a couple of good set-ups. It’s the tyres for some reason. For whatever reason, we don’t quite know." "I’m challenging my team to find out what it is that loses us time – whether it’s in tyre pressures, temperatures of blankets, ride heights."

Oh hello but Wolff denied it. "None of the pressure levels set by Pirelli had any influence on our set-up today." "We were well within the limits." That's not the point, devil's advocate made up "theory" working backwards: the point would be that new pressure regs and stricter rules enforcing them would cause problems, sweet spot, one thing leading to another etc. In Monza they got away with it through some trickery, illegal pressure as an indication but in Singapore they couldn't adjust, new procedures prevented that.

Mercedes sweating is some small consolation for season that is decided already. I love how they need to correct conspiracy theories and explain that it's got nothing to do with Monza. It's one of those: one variable changes so it must be it, like Ferrari and front pull rod. On the other hand they would say that, wouldn't they? They claimed they didn't gain anything from tyre test and got penalties for that.

They were slower on the longs runs too and rather consistent the whole weekend, remarkably that was their pace. Two stopper and some safety car or two may make it interesting. Without them and with a clean start/race, rather boring Ferrari-Red Bull one-two. I hope I'm wrong again and Merc are suddenly the quickest .

[atanatizante]

Which are the reasons behind tbey were out of the tyre loperation window?
One could be a higher that needed tyre pressure and the other is their car setup.
With so much understeer they probably want to protect the rears for overheating with a 2 stops in mind.
Without FRIC and with new rules for pressures and cambers makes me think this scenario resembles with 2013 tyre issues they've had ...

By the way could anyone explain how much influence has the camber in general speaking and particularly for this race?

[SectorOne]

“I had 100% confidence in the car,” explained Hamilton. “The balance was good, I had no understeer, the traction wasn’t particularly great but the balance was really good.

They lost over 2 seconds in relative pace to their competitors and if they simply could not switch on their tires i don´t think the driver would praise the balance of the car and having 100% confidence in it.

I don´t think i´ve ever seen something like this happen in Formula 1 before.

edit: it´s almost like they cooked the tires in the blankets or did something to them which basically destroyed the performance of them.

[Phil]

That. Or the answer is much simpler: That PU is a bigger differentiator than most people are ready to believe, but it's effectively neutralized on this track, as the Honda and Renault is far too close (or ahead) given its engine disadvantage. It's no coincidence it was so close here last year too.

It's just a track that doesnt suit the Mercedes. Last year, the PU advantage was just even bigger, which is why they've been able to grab pole. I expect the Merc to be stronger in the race, working the tires better, but it will still be difficult due to traffic.

Business as usual will resume next race.

[iotar__]

That. Or the answer is much simpler:

That PU is a bigger differentiator than most people are ready to believe

,but it's effectively neutralized on this track, as the Honda and Renault is far too close (or ahead) given its engine disadvantage. It's no coincidence it was so close here last year too.

It's just a track that doesnt suit the Mercedes

. Last year, the PU advantage was just even bigger, which is why they've been able to grab pole. I expect the Merc to be stronger in the race, working the tires better, but it will still be difficult due to traffic.

That does not make sense, to make it short: Monza, Hungary, Monaco and 1,4 s in Singapore. You can't make a track-engine connection like that. You might add Ferrari vs Red Bull (engine advantage-disadvantage) as a further proof that your reference points don't work.

[SectorOne]

That. Or the answer is much simpler: That PU is a bigger differentiator than most people are ready to believe, but it's effectively neutralized on this track, as the Honda and Renault is far too close (or ahead) given its engine disadvantage. It's no coincidence it was so close here last year too.

Then Monaco would be even less of a differentiator since it has even less straights.

It still does not explain how you go from usually being 6-8 tenths ahead to 1,4 seconds off the pace.
the engine theory does not cut it.

[bhall II]

You can't make a track-engine connection like that.

Sure you can. With only ~46% of the lap spent at full-throttle - second-lowest of the season - it's nearly impossible for PU performance to mask setup deficiencies. Combine that with a revised circuit layout and Ferrari's anomalous improvement* since last year, and you end up with a Mercedes deficit that looks really weird.


* Based on qualifying times for circuits/conditions common to both 2014 and 2015, Ferrari's gains have averaged ~1.27s. That means the 2s gain this weekend is a bit of an outlier.

2014 Bahrain

Merc: 1:33.185
RB: 1:34.051
Will: 1:34.247
Fer: 1:34.368

2015 Bahrain

Merc: 1:32.571 (-0.614)
Fer: 1:32.982 (-1.386)
Will: 1:33.381 (-0.866)
RB: 1:33.832 (-0.219)


2014 Spain

Merc: 1:25.232
RB: 1:26.285
Will: 1:26.632
Fer: 1:27.104

2015 Spain

Merc: 1:24.681 (-0.551)
Fer: 1:25.458 (-1.646)
Will: 1:25.694 (-0.938)
RB: 1:26.629 (+0.344)


2014 Monaco

Merc: 1:15.989
RB: 1:16.048
Fer: 1:16.686
Will: 1:18.082

2015 Monaco

Merc: 1:15.098 (-0.891)
Fer: 1:15.849 (-0.837)
RB: 1:16.041 (-0.007)
Will: 1:17.278 (-0.804)


2014 Canada

Merc: 1:14.874
RB: 1:15.548
Will: 1:15.550
Fer: 1:15.841

2015 Canada

Merc: 1:14.393 (-0.481)
Fer: 1:15.014 (-0.827)
Will: 1:15.102 (-0.448)
RB: 1:16.079 (+0.531)


2014 Austria

Will: 1:08.759
Merc: 1:08.944
Fer: 1:09.285
RB: 1:09.466

2015 Austria

Merc: 1:08.455 (-0.489)
Fer: 1:08.810 (-0.475)
Will: 1:09.192 (+0.433)
RB: 1:09.694 (+0.228)


2014 Hungary

Merc: 1:22.715
RB: 1:23.201
Will: 1:23.354
Fer: 1:23.909

2015 Hungary

Merc: 1:22.020 (-0.695)
Fer: 1:22.739 (-1.170)
RB: 1:22.774 (-0.427)
Will: 1:23.222 (-0.132)


2014 Italy

Merc: 1:24.109
Will: 1:24.697
Fer: 1:25.430
RB: 1:25.436

2015 Italy

Merc: 1:23.397 (-0.712)
Fer: 1:23.631 (-1.799)
Will: 1:23.940 (-0.757)
RB: 1:25.796 (+0.360)


2014 Singapore

Merc: 1:45.681
RB: 1:45.854
Fer: 1:45.907
Will: 1:46.000

2015 Singapore

Fer: 1:43.885 (-2.022)
RB: 1:44.428 (-1.426)
Merc: 1:45.300 (-0.381)
Will: 1:45.676 (-0.324)


Merc Avg: -0.592
Fer Avg: -1.270
Will Avg: -0.480
RB Avg:

[Jordan44]

It's got to be tire pressures.

I can only speak of my experience with setting up bikes. When you have to negotiate a bumpy track with sharp corners there is basically two ways you can go.

1) you can reduce tire pressures
2) you you can work with the spring and dampers.

Lowering the tire pressures is relatively easy, even a difference of .1 bar gives you quite a bit of benefit over bumps and through corners. The downside is that you're sacrificing efficiency.

With the springs and dampers it is hard. Potentially you have a high gain, since you maintain top speed, but you only have a small window to get it working. Get it wrong and your bike might be perfect over one set of bumps, but the next set will sent your front wheel floating.

I think Mercedes has a suspension system which is different from the rest. I've been watching their cars quite a bit. And compared to others they have a lot of roll in corners, but under braking they have very little dive. Yet the front end looks planted. Its looks as stiff as the mclarens but it is not bumping around. They seem to do something different with their suspension than anyone else,

My guess is that they have some trickery with the suspension even after FRIC, which gives them a lot of advantage if they get it right, but is very hard to set up. And sometimes they simply can't get it working; like last year in Austria, or this year in Hungary.

Tires can play a role in that. Since they are forced to run higher pressures than last year, suspension becomes more dominant.

Why Austria and Hungary? The cars were not off the pace in either of these places. In the race they were still comfortably the fastest cars over a lap. They gave away pole in Austria but had no trouble in the races, and in Hungary Lewis's pace in clean air looked really good, plus he got pole.
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