2016 Pecking Order Speculation and Fantasy Thread

[ESPImperium]

01] Mercedes: HAM - 3 Wins/ROS - 8 Wins (HAM will have a meltdown mid way through season after ROS bosses him 5-1 to summer break, HAM will have reliability issues and a moan at Pirelli) ROS WDC
02] Ferrari: VET - 6 Wins/RAI - Single win (RAI to score only victory at Australia, VET to destroy RAI after that) VET 2nd Place WDC
03] Williams-Mercedes (Equal 1-1 win ratio with BOT having more driver damage with MAS still being of much the same pace as him, 15% between them in points total of Williams total)
04] Force India/Aston Martin-Mercedes: PER to score 2 podiums/HUL to score his maiden podium (Still equal, but PER will outscore HUL by 20% on the points total of the teams overall total)
05] STR-Ferrari: VES to destroy SAI with VES getting a podium (VES will destroy SAI, but SAI will continue unreliability streak)
06] McLaren-Honda: BUT to remain ahead of ALO (Both will get a podium, but BUT will get a 2nd and ALO a 3rd, 10 points between them)
07] Red Bull-Tag Heuer: Like McLaren 2015 but with reliability. (KVJ will be good early season but taper off. RIC to remain good, possibility of a RIC podium at Hungary)
08] Renault F1: Both drivers will be as bad as each other to be honest, PAL to edge it by 8 points
09] Sauber-Ferrari: Drivers will be separated by paper, NAS will just edge it by a point or two
10] HAAS-Ferrari: GUT to be destroyed by GRO, but team will have early season growing pains, team will likely score 6 points total after summer break
11] Manor-Mercedes: Team will have a difficult early season in the fly aways, but once in Europe they will likely score points at Monaco again, possibly score points at a high attrition rate race in the late season, will score 5 points total.

Leading to 2017:
RAI will retire at the end of the year.
GRO to replace RAI at Ferrari.
PER to Renault in 2017.
ERI to Renault with PER.
BUT will leave McLaren and go to Aston alongside HUL.
VAN will get his McLaren seat in 2017.
NAS to Williams to replace MAS.
RSI to HAAS to replace GRO
STR to keep pairing for 3rd season, same at RBR and Mercedes. (STR will move to RBR-Tag Heuer in 2017)
ALO, GUT, VET, HAM and ROS will stay put
Lynn at Sauber with Matsushita (Honda deal for Sauber)
Manor-Mercedes will take Palmer and Stevens as a all brit line up.
Renault powered B team will take to the grid as well.

[continuum16]

2016 season summary of teams (2015 order)

Merc - car will be good, more reliable than ferrari so will win constructors, though not as dominant, ROS beats HAM, huge rift leads to one of them leaving
Ferrari - car will be as good as merc; however may push limits too hard (less reliable); VET to possibly win WDC, Kimi will be better but again have worse luck. will overlook 2017 changes in push to win in 2016, bites them later
Williams - car will start off almost on par with the front two, will have won by Silverstone but not after as again they focus on 2017. BOT will be the picture of consistency, score at every race and thus have good result in WDC. MAS does decent, retires to be replaced by either NAS, PAL, or Alex Lynn
RBR - troubled season, improved engine allows them to be force india level-of-competitiveness, drivers unmotivated, unlikely that both will stay, engine saga continues
FI/Aston - solid car and good drivers leads to successful season, will see them challenging Williams by the end
Renault - improved engine and decent chassis means they will be like STR 2015, although PAL will outclass MAL who will be fired
STR - ferrari engine will aid power but limit packaging, thus changing characteristics of the car; will be like red bull 2015 season in reverse; as 2016 engines improve they will suffer more
Sauber - "radical" car proves to be the wild card of the season; could honestly be anywhere between Williams and Manor, although likely at the lower end. capable of surprises though (ex. 2012)
Mclaren - improved honda engine means they will have straight fight with STR on power, chassis will be good but not RBR/merc/ferrari good; fingers point and excuses fly; left with stoffel and KVY for the future
Manor - mercedes engine gives automatic 3s boost, chassis will still not be good, but bob bell's months will pay off as they are similar to sauber 2015
Haas - will drive like a (2015) Williams with a ferrari engine, meaning will be extremely track-dependent car. GRO will depart to Ferrari after waxing GUT. Likely that some points will be scored, development will determine their season

[SiLo]

I'm more excited for next season to start just to see which of these predictions come true.

[Joseki]

Mercedes leading the pack again but Ferrari is really close, a few tenths per lap down and in some track even faster, Seb is going to battle for the championship.
McLaren-Honda will make a 2 second step forward and be at less than a second from pole position but reliability will still not be 100% there.
Williams and Force India/Aston will be fighting hard all season and on power tracks they'll leap McLaren-Honda.
Toro Rosso and Red Bull will fight for the points at the start of the season but I think Red Bull with the upgraded Renault PU will catch Williams and FI during the season and even surpass them.
Haas Renault and Sauber will be in a close battle for Q2 all season.
Manor will still be last but 2 seconds closer to the front.

[skoop]

i hope for a close battle at the front between ham and vet, which ham will win. ros and rai to follow in that order

[lebesset]

bouillier 'resigns' from McLaren , dennis persuades a certain RB out of retirement as team principal ...which is what he should have done in the first place instead of trying to do everything himself

[Joseki]

bouillier 'resigns' from McLaren , dennis persuades a certain RB out of retirement as team principal ...which is what he should have done in the first place instead of trying to do everything himself

I think Boullier now is in a stronger position than Dennis at McLaren F1.

[George-Jung]

Fantasy..

How awesome would it be.. a three way battle between Alonso, Hamilton and Vettel until the last race. [-o<

*with Alonso WDC in the end.
*and Ferrari WCC

Last but not least, I do think that the above mentioned result would be the best result F1 could use.

[dans79]

I see it like this.

Lewis will claim his 4th title, but will have much stronger competition from Vettel, who will take second in the WDC. Nico will take a strong 3rd in the WDC, ensuring Merc claim the WCC for the 3rd year in a row. However, he will ultimately head to another team after failing to beat Lewis in 4 attempts.

this should make 2017 a season for the ages. Two 4 time world champions going head to head in cars that will once again test how big their dangly bits are.

[Alonsofor2017]

Fantasy..

How awesome would it be.. a three way battle between Alonso, Hamilton and Vettel until the last race. [-o<

*with Alonso WDC in the end.
*and Ferrari WCC

Last but not least, I do think that the above mentioned result would be the best result F1 could use.

I agree that would be a suprising championship

[dren]

Three way fight for WDC between Hamilton, Vettel, and Rosberg; finishing in that order. Hamilton's edge in races will be exploited more against Rosberg since Vettel will be in the mix. The strategist won't just be making a call of Hamilton vs. Rosberg.

Next is Red Bull. They might eek out a win.

Williams & FI
Mclaren will be often in the mix for top 10 and an odd podium, but reliability will still be an issue.

TR - the car will be quicker than the final position, but reliability will be an issue along with Verstappen crashing.

Haas - Renault - Sauber will all be close.

Manor

[godlameroso]

Things are going to get shaken up for 2016. Except for at the top, Mercedes will still have the fastest car. But where they were on average .7 seconds/lap faster than Ferrari, it'll be more like .3 sec/lap, enough for either Ferrari driver to snatch a win if there's any mistakes on Mercedes side. McLaren is going to be battling with TR RB and Williams at the start of the season, but will outdevelop these teams and start closing in on FI, and mid-way through the year start closing in on Ferrari's pace, ending up roughly .5 sec/lap slower than Mercedes by the end of the season. Haas will beat Manor, Sauber, and trail TR at the end of the year. The biggest shocker is that every team will at least score one point.

[basti313]

McLaren is going to be battling with TR RB and Williams at the start of the season, but will outdevelop these teams and start closing in on FI, and mid-way through the year start closing in on Ferrari's pace, ending up roughly .5 sec/lap slower than Mercedes by the end of the season.

Naaaaahhhhh.....I think it is very clear from the speculations in the Honda engine thread and the McLaren team thread, that there is no way of speculating anything else, but McLaren to be close to Mercedes at the beginning of the season. The speculations clearly show, that the Honda engine will be as powerful as the Merc engine and that the McLaren chassis is superior is not in doubt.
Together with the speculations about Alonso's superior driving this will speculatively a walk in the park for Alonso to be WC.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

Things are going to get shaken up for 2016. Except for at the top, Mercedes will still have the fastest car. But where they were on average .7 seconds/lap faster than Ferrari, it'll be more like .3 sec/lap, enough for either Ferrari driver to snatch a win if there's any mistakes on Mercedes side.

Not that I am very happy while I am highlighting this, but the fact is, I still cannot take off from my head the fact that, after the last upgrade on the PU in Monza, Mercedes were 1.6 seconds ahead of Ferrari in FP1. Horner mentioned at that time that, Merc PU is a monster now. Because Nico's engine failed, Mercedes had to tune down Lewis' engine. Lewis did a 1:24.670 in FP1 with Mediums bolted and only did a 1:23.397 in Q3 of qualifying, with Softs bolted. Ferrari's best time in FP1 on the same mediums was 1:26.258. So to me, Mercedes always had a bigger margin over Ferrari than .7 sec/lap. And they managed the whole season with just 4 PUs on both cars, whereas Ferrari used 5 PUs to remain competitive. That just shows that Mercedes were nursing their PUs throughout the season which must have been done through holding up ultimate power. For a new season, where regulations are going to stay the same, it is hard to beat a team that got such a big head start. I wouldn't be surprised to see if we see one more MANAGED COMPETITIVE season. Looking at the statements coming from Toto, I am sure their headache is not about beating the competition, but to create this "COMPETITIVE SCENARIO SOMEHOW" and retain their dominance, which otherwise will pull down the sport.

Ferrari doesn't have it in them to beat Mercedes. NO MATTER WHAT. They will continue to face "Carrot and Stick" from Mercedes, just like this year. I would be simply delighted if they can come to Winter testing with something new on their car, instead of their usual routine of bringing last year's car and look at other cars to copy their concepts.

McLaren's chances of beating Mercedes is as good as Haas'. They are right now 2.5 seconds down on ultimate power (? believing that Mercedes has shown it ?). Every year since 2012, Mercedes have managed to gain 2 seconds over the winter. If they continue to gain 2 seconds this winter, McLaren has to find close to 5 seconds to beat Mercedes. No team in the history of sport has ever found 5 seconds over the winter. More so, when regulations are staying stable. If they can manage to put together their PU in order, only 2017 would be a realistic chance of looking at winning.

[GM7]

2015:

1) Mercedes
2) Ferrari (+0.8 sec)
3) Williams (+1.0 sec)
4) RedBull (+1.5 sec)
5) Force India (+1.6 sec)
6) Lotus (+1.8 sec)
7) Toro Rosso (+1.9 sec)
Sauber (+2.5 sec)
9) Mclaren (+2.6 sec)
10) Manor (+5.0 sec)

2015 PU estimation:

1) Mercedes PU
2) Ferrari PU (+0.5 sec)
3) Renault PU (+1.0 sec)
4) Honda PU (+1.6 sec)

2016 PU speculation:

1) Mercedes PU
2) Ferrari PU (+0.3 sec)
3) Renault PU (+0.7 sec)
4) Honda PU (+0.8 sec)

2016 (Only with engines improvements):

1) Mercedes
2) Ferrari (+0.6 sec)
3) Williams (+1.0 sec)
4) RedBull (+1.2 sec)
5) Toro Rosso (+1.4 sec)
6) Force India (+1.6 sec)
7) Mclaren (+1.8 sec)
Sauber (+2.3 sec)
9) Renault (+2.5 sec)
10) Manor (+3.0 sec)

2016 (chassis improvements): Teams are all win 0.2 sec on Mercedes, except Renault (-0.4 sec), Mclaren (-0.5 sec) and Manor (-0.7 sec).

2016:

1) Mercedes
2) Ferrari (+0.4 sec)
3) Williams (+0.8 sec)
4) RedBull (+1.0 sec)
5) Toro Rosso (+1.2 sec)
6) Mclaren (+1.3 sec)
7) Force India (+1.4 sec)
Renault (+2.1 sec)
9) Sauber (+2.1 sec)
10) Manor (+2.3 sec)

Haas (+??? sec)