2016 Pecking Order Speculation and Fantasy Thread

[FrukostScones]

let ALO have fun in the Honda.

but serious:

Mercedes will have an PU advantage but most likely it is now reliability paired with power what is their advantage
that is not related to their split design I think.
Mercedes front interconnect is prob 0.1 sec or nothing.

Ferrari had all that good Haas Development time on aero (did they go 100% legeliilegally?).
Engine will be nearly as powerful as Merc but with lacking reliability

Aero still rules in the Merc/ Fer context (with that close Power figueres), so if Ferrari found some big gains there... and Mercedes didn't,

then VET or RAI could win Melbourne. in the dry.

[wickedz50]

It will be very hard for the F1 lovers if we see that Merc increase their dominance in 2016. However I expect a good fight from Ferrari to the last race of 2016. Lets hope there is some fight.

[Big Mangalhit]

For me these "rumours" are more of a trend really. A few years the Ferrari couldn't compete because of the "inferior" push rod, now it seems everybody thinks it's the split turbo. I think the engineers must know what they are doing. In this stage what we see as .6s a lap difference is probably a combinations of several details. I don't think neither the split turbo or the suspension or the aero are a magic bullet. But the combination of all the things simply makes the mercedes better overall. And probably the best route for Ferrari to win is not to copy the merc design and thus create an inferior one. But make their one so refined it will be, at least, as compact and powerful as the rivals'.

But at least for me Merc haven't won the 2016 championship yet. First of all if you go by rumours there are also rumours of very positive improvements coming from italian press, increase in cylinder pressure, very tight package and the Haas partnership exploit. Also this car will be designed by a team of very competent and motivated personal. And with the new tyre rules there is even more unpredictability to the mix. Merc has the advantage as champions but that doesn't bring them points to 2016, lets wait and see.

[proteus]

Allison is very good in designing the car, but the ultimate question is if the Ferrari is capable effctive leaving its confort zone (of past few years) and making a fast pushrod car, or will they experience difficulties with it.

[giantfan10]

Allison is very good in designing the car, but the ultimate question is if the Ferrari is capable effctive leaving its confort zone (of past few years) and making a fast pushrod car, or will they experience difficulties with it.

So all the years they won with a pull rod suspension and the experience they have with it just got lost somewhere?
As far as turbo location i think we are well past that myth th

[turbof1]

the pull- or pushrod debate as been going on for years - pointless might I add. It's not a determining factor at all. Push or pull rod merely determine load on the upper wishbone along with aero preferences.

[giantfan10]

Having read all the pre season technical analysis I think (and hope am wrong) that in 2016 Mercedes will actually increase the gap to the 2nd team (most likely Ferrari) than existed in 2015, and Marchionne's constant boasts about Ferrari will be the team to beat from Australia will have backfired completely unfortunately making a fool of him.

Why the increased gap? Look I am guessing like everyone else, and could post links to many articles but I think(guess) this mainly because of just 2 reasons. There are many other less important reasons, but the main 2 are:

1) Because Mercedes have developed a Left Right Interconnected Suspension which the Ferrari won't have.
2) Ferrari still unbelievably have not adopted the Mercedes PU split Turbine Compressor layout which is fundamental to Mercedes' speed advantage.

I kinda recall him saying that the goal for Ferrari was to win in Australia...when was he boasting about anything? Isnt that the goal of every team?
The fact that you believe that the split turbo is the key to Mercedes advantage says it all

[Big Mangalhit]

the pull- or pushrod debate as been going on for years - pointless might I add. It's not a determining factor at all. Push or pull rod merely determine load on the upper wishbone along with aero preferences.

Exactly my point. I think the split turbo is the same has the pull/push rod. It might be better for merc design but that does't necessarily mean that you have to split them to win or even that it is the best solution.

[FrukostScones]

the pull- or pushrod debate as been going on for years - pointless might I add. It's not a determining factor at all. Push or pull rod merely determine load on the upper wishbone along with aero preferences.

but the reversion might lead to aero inconsistencies.... but with Haas time they settled it hopefully

[turbof1]

the pull- or pushrod debate as been going on for years - pointless might I add. It's not a determining factor at all. Push or pull rod merely determine load on the upper wishbone along with aero preferences.

Exactly my point. I think the split turbo is the same has the pull/push rod. It might be better for merc design but that does't necessarily mean that you have to split them to win or even that it is the best solution.

Exactly. The split turbo is a packaging solution. It does provide benefits concerning turbo lag, compactness and cooling, but other solutions lay emphasis on other benefits or more emphasis on similar benefits. It's what the manufacturer feels comfortable with and sees the most potentional coming from.

but the reversion might lead to aero inconsistencies.... but with Haas time they settled it hopefully

I doubt that. If there is going to be a reversion, then Ferrari will have carefully planned it. It is possible of course for them getting it wrong, but I don't deem it likely.

[proteus]

What i meant was, that if they change their suspension layout, will they try with totally different layout of the car too. Lower downfall from drivers cockpit to the nose (they were flat since 2010), more rake, less rake and so on. I meant purely going with the flow and designing something like STR, or sticking with their current logic. I meant it in the way Mclaren changed their phylosophy in 2013, which backfired on them.

[turbof1]

They have a good engineer: James Allison. I think they will be quite ok since Allison emphasizes driveability and consistency. When he was at Lotus, he did a fantastic job dispite having limited resources.

[Big Mangalhit]

I agree, if ferrari changes the suspension it is because they know it will not affect too much. Maybe the change could even be simpler than the overhaul they did from 2014 to 2015 in which they kept the pull rod but changed the geometry and thickness of the arms. Anyway I am still not convinced they will use the push rod this year, I heard it so many times in the previous off seasons I will only believe when I see it. (maybe this friday???)

[mzivtins]

Every cloud has a silver lining (massive pun not intended)

If this speculation becomes reality then it makes 2017-2018 even more appealing. The negative side, is that trips to le mans and spa 6hr are booked instead of formula one races this year. I cannot stomach watching this anymore after last year, and that really saddens me

[FrukostScones]

Ferrari close on Mercedes. Hamilton and Vettel fight it out most of the time leading to shunts and lost points. Rosberg and Kimi quietly amass points and it goes down to the last race where Hamilto has to let Rosberg through for the title win. Toto resigns in disgust afterwards as Hamilton takes the flag and Rosberg throws all of his toys. Hamilton then retires from F1 with the boos from the crowd ringing in his ears.

Seriously, if Ferrari are closer then I expect the title race to be between Vettel and Hamilton. I don't think Rosberg is a good enough "street fighter" to take it to Vettel in a close race. Hamilton vs Vettel through the whole season would be excellent as we'd know that there are no team orders behind the scenes.

so HAM won't let ROS pass and VET is champion? that would be something

but to make it fair it was tough:

198HAM 205ROS 209VET Wdc standings

HAM ROS equal wins before... HAM leads the last race then ROS 2nd, VET 4th but then 3rd in the last lap ... what would happen.