2016 Pecking Order Speculation and Fantasy Thread

[damager21]

Ferrari poised for radical engine overhaul

As Giorgio Piola's exclusive illustration of what Ferrari may have changed shows, Ferrari could be set for a pretty big revolution in terms of what it will be bringing to the track in 2016, even if it will try to keep what it has actually done top secret.

1. The large intercooler that was on the SF15-T was placed inside the cylinder bank of the V6 turbo. For 2016, this has been enlarged for performance reasons – because Ferrari needs more fresh air feeding the engine to maximise its extra power.

To ensure no compromise, the intercooler has been split in to two parts. The larger part will be placed inside the chassis on top of the fuel tank, while the second one will be placed in the left sidepod.

2. The MGU-H is the only component that is likely to remain in the same position in this year's car as it was in the 2015 challenger.

3. The MGU-K, which was effectively used as a spacer for the gearbox in 2015, will be moved to the left bank of the V6 – in a position that other manufacturers have also used previously.

4. The oil bank reservoir has also been re-designed. For the 667, it will be lower and slightly wider: which will help with the car's centre of gravity.

5. The 2016 Ferrari engine will feature variable inlet trumpets, which Ferrari could not use last year as the presence of the intercooler inside the V-bank prevented it.
The addition of the trumpets (which Mercedes used in 2015) will be a boost in allowing the better quality of combustion through better tuning of the air/fuel mixture in the combustion chamber.

6. The clutch that was in the 059/4 engine has been shifted to inside the gearbox housing – with a coupling shaft connected to the crankshaft.

http://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/analy ... ul-672601/

[Andres125sx]

Hopefully (for the championship) Ferrari will catch up, but I wouldn´t bet for that.

They´ve been claiming they will fight for the title next season for too many seasons

Alonso moved out because he was tired of their conservatism, maybe now they finally changed, but I wouldn´t bet for them

[Just_a_fan]

In reality I'm sure that Hamilton would move over to give Rosberg the necessary points to secure the title if he himself couldn't win it. The kudos and goodwill he'd gain from doing it would be priceless, after all. I think Vettel would do likewise for Kimi too.

If Ferrari and Mercedes are properly close in 2016 we could be in for a classic season... [-o<

[ME4ME]

If Ferrari and Mercedes are properly close in 2016 we could be in for a classic season... [-o<

Indeed! 2015 was quite boring, but 2016 has the potential to be a total turn-around IF Ferrari can match Mercedes. Vettel VS Hamilton each supported by great teams, it has the potential to be absolutely epic. Rosberg cannot be disregarded either. But all hangs on the SF16-T's competiveness. [-o<

[Mclarettino]

The fact that gives hope for a good championship is James Allison and the new tyre ruling. His Lotus cars challenged for the championship on what, a quarter of the budget of the big teams.

His cars are generally not the fastest in terms of raw speed, but possibly overall the best race cars in the way they are so consistently fast in the race while being very gentle on their tyres. This season is his first complete car being able to use a big team budget. Because of the nature of JA's cars, the new tyre ruling could not have come in at a better time. Given the history of his cars, the Ferrari maybe, hopefully could run the races using a tyre 1 compound softer (and 1 compound faster) than the Mercs.

This season needs a genuine driver's championship challenge between 2 teams. And the reversion back to push rod should suit Kimi's style much more. JA's cars seem to really suit Kimi's driving style.

An interesting story this season of the "next generation" of designers. Ross Brawn and Adrian Newey whose cars have won almost every championship since 1992, this season will be the first where their proteges, James Allison and Peter Prodromou will have led the design of a car at a big budget team. It will be interesting how Ferrari and Mclaren go under their leadership as they both try to challenge Mercedes.

[Mclarettino]

The fact that you believe that the split turbo is the key to Mercedes advantage says it all

Giantfan10, Andy Cowell Head of Mercedes AMG F1 High Performance Powertrains believes it is, and I think he knows what he is talking about. The split turbo gave so many knock on power unit, aerodynamic and chassis benefits. Of course its not the only reason for Mercedes advantage, but it is certainly fundamental to that advantage.

Last week, Mercedes invited a select group of media to a briefing from its engine chief Andy Cowell, where he opened up about some of the design innovations of its power unit. And although the split turbo and compressor was not the only reason Mercedes has been successful, Cowell acknowledged that the design had played an important part in its delivering the benchmark power unit.

"I don't think it was over-played," he said. "Is it the silver bullet? I think it is something where there are lots of positive contributors that go into it to make that comment. "It is not done for one reason. There were many reasons that go together; to make it something that we think is still attractive.

"I think the thing that goes against it, is it is bloody hard! In the whole debate, there wasn't one big reason why we should do it, but there were lots of medium sized reasons why we should do it: on the contra side of the table – it was, 'bloody hell how are we going to do this?' Which is the 1000 pound gorilla in the room. "There was nothing that said it couldn't be done, it just hadn't been done. But it makes it quite fun doesn't it?"

http://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/analy ... 72435/?s=1

[Jolle]

I think one of the things what made th Mercedes PU so good, that they took th challenge as a corporation. In interviews it was referred a few times that they offload work to Stuttgart. Daimler R&D must have done a whole load of study to lean burn turbo engines anyway.

With Ferrari I would imagine there is a bit of corporation between the racing and the road R&D, but I don't think they use FIAT too much. The just sheer size of Daimler must make a big difference.

[ME4ME]

The fact that gives hope for a good championship is James Allison and the new tyre ruling. His Lotus cars challenged for the championship on what, a quarter of the budget of the big teams.

His cars are generally not the fastest in terms of raw speed, but possibly overall the best race cars in the way they are so consistently fast in the race while being very gentle on their tyres. This season is his first complete car being able to use a big team budget. Because of the nature of JA's cars, the new tyre ruling could not have come in at a better time. Given the history of his cars, the Ferrari maybe, hopefully could run the races using a tyre 1 compound softer (and 1 compound faster) than the Mercs.

May I add some perspective to that? The 2012 and 2013 Lotus cars were gentle on the tires, but so were the Sauber of 2011, the 2015 Force India and the 2015 Ferrari (which wasn't a pure Allison-car). It's not only James' car who are gentle on their tires. It's probably a combination of design philosophy (usable downforce over peak downforce), drivers being tire managing experts (Perez, Kimi) and a bit of luck, (which most F1 engineers seem to admit is part of the equation). There's no guarantee the SF16-T will be gentle on it's tires.
Also as we have seen in 2015, it's not always a good thing; a car can be too gentle on it's tires. Although the SF15-T had a tire advantage over the W06 in the hot conditions of Malaysia, at many other occasions where the medium or hard compounds were used, it was at a disadvantage and struggled to get heat into the tires on the first lap. I think generally Mercedes got it spot on last year and was able to extract the most performance on the most occasions.

[Mclarettino]

I think one of the things what made th Mercedes PU so good, that they took th challenge as a corporation. In interviews it was referred a few times that they offload work to Stuttgart. Daimler R&D must have done a whole load of study to lean burn turbo engines anyway.

With Ferrari I would imagine there is a bit of corporation between the racing and the road R&D, but I don't think they use FIAT too much. The just sheer size of Daimler must make a big difference.

Such a good post, could not agree more. This website shows the top 20 companies in the world for R&D spending. Daimler and Honda are both there spending around 7 billion a year.

http://www.statista.com/statistics/2656 ... velopment/

But Fiat Chrysler are financially struggling relatively and are not spending much on R&D.

http://www.autoguide.com/auto-news/2015 ... ouble.html

And if the Red Bull Lamborghini (part of VW group) rumours are true then that would be a concern for everyone. VW sales are back up to levels before "emission gate" happened, and in a year's time emission gate will blow over. Meanwhile VW have been number 1 in world R&D for a while spending around 14 billion a year. They also happen to own Audi and Porsche who have won almost every Le Mans this century using hybrid engines very similar to F1's power units. And Red Bull chassis by Newey and team ain't half bad.

http://www.thef1source.com/red-bull-lam ... i-in-2017/

[Moose]

And if the Red Bull Lamborghini (part of VW group) rumours are true then that would be a concern for everyone. VW sales are back up to levels before "emission gate" happened, and in a year's time emission gate will blow over. Meanwhile VW have been number 1 in world R&D for a while spending around 14 billion a year. They also happen to own Audi and Porsche who have won almost every Le Mans this century using hybrid engines very similar to F1's power units. And Red Bull chassis by Newey and team ain't half bad.

The real question there of course is how long is it before VW want to mention "lean turbo" in their marketing. The emissions scandal blowing over is one thing - wanting to actually market in that area directly is quite another. Just now it seems like VW are on a real push to market their (really) clean EVs rather than lean turbos.

[Mclarettino]

And if the Red Bull Lamborghini (part of VW group) rumours are true then that would be a concern for everyone. VW sales are back up to levels before "emission gate" happened, and in a year's time emission gate will blow over. Meanwhile VW have been number 1 in world R&D for a while spending around 14 billion a year. They also happen to own Audi and Porsche who have won almost every Le Mans this century using hybrid engines very similar to F1's power units. And Red Bull chassis by Newey and team ain't half bad.

The real question there of course is how long is it before VW want to mention "lean turbo" in their marketing. The emissions scandal blowing over is one thing - wanting to actually market in that area directly is quite another. Just now it seems like VW are on a real push to market their (really) clean EVs rather than lean turbos.

I did nt know about that last bit. Moose, do you reckon there is any truth to the rumours Lamborghini/VW entering with Red Bull in the next few seasons? Because a Red Bull chassis running a VW hybrid could be something that challenges Mercedes.

[bidness]

So.. will Merc lose its crown...

I think so!

1. Ferrari
2. Mercedes
3. Force India
4. Williams
5. Toro Rosso
6. Red Bull
7. Haas
8. McLaren
9. Sauber
10. Renault
11. Ex-Manor

if Honda gets the engine tuned upside down then McLaren 3rd or 4th.

Agreed, Merc. will lose its crown, but to Williams, not Ferrari. Think about it: The Merc. drivers will be free to sort it out between themselves. This is the only way to spice up the show: let them duke it out! While Lewis and Nico take each other out, Williams, now in their third year of the dominant engine, will be there to collect the points. So Merc. will win because of its unit in the Williams, which situation they will accept to generate interest in the sport. These corporate team orders to behave need to be dropped, let them race!

A speculation thread is best before the first practice to have it be real speculation. Here is my guess (it would be great to revive this thread after the season to see who came the closest-the board could even offer a prize of sorts to spur interest!):

1. Williams
2. Mercedes
3. Ferrari
4. Red Bull
5. Force India
6. Toro Rosso
7. Renault
8. McLaren
9. Sauber
10. Manor
11. Haas

here is my rationale on a few teams and their transition to 2016:

Ferrari are bound to have teething problems since they are changing a number of areas on the car. Red Bull will bounce back and develop the car better than Force India despite its superior power unit. Toro Rosso despite their driver lineup will suffer due to changing ICE supply and so will remain further back compared to the sister team. Renault works team will build on its strength of a strong chassis dept. and edge out McLaren who will essentially have another "building year" with their revised power unit. Sauber will benefit from the Ferrari continuity to edge out an up-and-coming Manor. Haas will need to find its legs being a new outfit even though their driver pairing will be stronger than Manor. A new team just needs time and experience to perform consistently.

[godlameroso]

There is absolutely zero chance McLaren will be that far back. The engineers at Honda and McLaren are too good, and their facilities and manufacturing capabilities are as good as any other team including Mercedes. They'll start the season within 1 1/4 seconds per lap off the pace, and bring it down to 3/4ths of a second by the end of the year. I'm have a good feeling they'll be fighting Red Bull and Williams.

[Vasconia]

This would be a total disaster but I think that McLaren will be the 5th team and could end the year fighting with Williams taking into account its traditional great in-season development.

If Ferrari´s new design works we could see a great season but a great evolution and Ferrari are two concepts which usually dont work well together, I fear.

[FrukostScones]

There is absolutely zero chance McLaren will be that far back. The engineers at Honda and McLaren are too good, and their facilities and manufacturing capabilities are as good as any other team including Mercedes. They'll start the season within 1 1/4 seconds per lap off the pace, and bring it down to 3/4ths of a second by the end of the year. I'm have a good feeling they'll be fighting Red Bull and Williams.

the wrong mindset can do alot harm, and both Honda and McLaren seem to have a strange was of managing things...
It all depends on the PU; if they can't get this done, if the reliability is abysmal as in 2015, game over! and ALO is leaving before the end of the 2016 season.